The Dallas Wings host the Phoenix Mercury on Saturday afternoon as the teams kick off a two-game series that concludes Monday in Phoenix.
My Mercury vs. Wings predictions and free WNBA picks point to the home team covering the spread and extending its five-game win streak.
Read on to see why I’m also backing the Under and how I think Paige Bueckers will perform in front of the faithful at College Park Center.
TOP PICK
Mercury vs Wings prediction: Wings -7.5
The Dallas Wings are tied for the best ATS record at 13-8, including an 8-5 mark as the home favorite. The Phoenix Mercury are just 10-11 ATS on the road, including a 1-4 mark across their last five.
Dallas ranks in the Top 5 in Offensive and Defensive Ratings at home, and the Wings’ 11.4 Net Rating is best in the W. On the road, the Mercury rank ninth in Net Rating (-4.6).
Even if Kahleah Copper plays, she’ll likely be at less than 100%, hindering an already struggling offense playing in a tough spot.
COVERS INTEL: The Wings are tied with the Indiana Fever for the best home point differential at 9.2 ppg, and they’re tied with the Golden State Valkyries for the best home Defensive Rating at a paltry 99.9.
Mercury vs Wings combo
Paige Bueckers has hit multiple treys in 11 of 20 home games, shooting 43.2% compared to just 35.2% on the road. Phoenix has surrendered the most 3PM on the road at 10.2, giving them up at 36.1%.
Dallas has hit the Under more than any other team, going 17-24 to the Under overall and 6-15 at home. The Mercury are 8-13 to the Under on the road, good for second-highest.
The Wings are 1-4 to the Under across their current home stand, and I’ll back this line down to 172.5.
Mercury vs Wings combo
- Wings -7.5
- Paige Bueckers Over 1.5 made threes
- Under 174.5
Want more basketball combos? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
Mercury vs Wings player prop: Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 points
I’m counting on 2+ triples from Bueckers, and that should mean a healthy dose of points. Dallas’ superstar guard has produced 20+ points in 15 of 20 games in which she hit multiple triples.
She’s shooting 43.2% from long distance at home compared to just 35.2% on the road. Bueckers knocked down three of five triples in her lone matchup with the Mercury this season, finishing with 31 points.
I’ll play this one at 19.5 up to 55%.
- Top picks: 33-37, -6.96 units
- Combos: 7-63 -26.0 units
Mercury vs Wings odds
- Spread: Mercury +7.5 | Wings -7.5
- Moneyline: Mercury 13% | Wings 88%
- Over/Under: Over 174.5 | Under 174.5
Mercury vs Wings trend
Dallas has hit the Under in seven of its last eight games. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Wings
| Location | College Park Center, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Mercury vs Wings latest injuries
Mercury: Kahleah Copper (Questionable), Kelsey Plum (Out), Jovana Nogic (Out).
Wings: Odyssey Sims (Questionable), Alanna Smith (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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