WNBA Predictions and Moneyline Picks: Saturday, Sept. 19

Ed Scimia - Contributor at Covers.com
Ed Scimia • Betting Analyst 17+ years betting experience
Updated: Sep 19, 2026 , 10:32 AM ET • 4 min read

The three games on the WNBA slate tonight have one thing in common: home teams that are big favorites and should walk away with comfortable wins.

Golden State Valkyries WNBA Veronica Burton
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Golden State Valkyries guard Veronica Burton.

We've got a three-game slate in the WNBA for Saturday, and all three home teams come in as heavy favorites.

I'm taking the Dallas Wings, Atlanta Dream, and Golden State Valkyries to win at home in my WNBA moneyline picks. Read on to see why, and get my full WNBA picks for Saturday, Sept. 19.

WNBA moneyline picks: September 19

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup Kalshi
Probability
Mercury Mercury vs Wings Wings Wings 78%
Sky Sky vs Dream Dream Dream 87%
Storm Storm vs Valkyries Valkyries Valkyries 87%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Expert WNBA moneyline picks: September 19

Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings pick: Wings

Kalshi probability: 78%

The Dallas Wings are riding a five-game winning streak, and have won each of their last four games by double digits. They've scored over 90 points in each of those four games, while allowing 78 points or less.

The Wings also beat the Phoenix Mercury by 15 points in their first meeting this season. Dallas has the third-lowest foul rate in the WNBA (20.3%), and only commits 12.2 turnovers per game, meaning its not giving away free points and letting teams like the Mercury back into games.

I'm picking the Wings to win here at up to 80%.

Chicago Sky vs Atlanta Dream pick: Dream

Kalshi probability: 87%

The Atlanta Dream have now won seven straight games against the Chicago Sky, and there's no reason to expect anything else to happen on Saturday. Chicago comes in having lost four straight, while Atlanta is rolling into the playoffs, having won six of its last seven.

The Dream have great offensive and defensive numbers, but it all springs from their rebounding advantage. Angel Reese & Co. have the second-best rebounding rate in the league at 53.9%, and they'll punish Chicago on the boards, as the Sky are 13th in that category (47.3%).

This should be a comfortable win for Atlanta at home, and I'm backing the Dream at up to 90%.

Seattle Storm vs Golden State Valkyries pick: Valkyries

Kalshi probability: 87%

The Golden State Valkyries are on the second game of a back-to-back, but that's not nearly enough reason to pick the Seattle Storm tonight. Seattle is 2-16 over its last 18 games, and has gone a miserable 2-18 on the road overall this year.

Meanwhile, the Valkyries have won five straight, all by double-digits. Golden State is the best defensive team in the league, allowing 75.4 ppg, and they use fewer possessions than any other WNBA squad (78.2 per 40 minutes), which should mitigate some of the back-to-back fatigue concerns. 

Seattle has the second-worst offensive rating (101.0) in the league and will find it hard to generate offense against Golden State. I'd back the Valkyries at up to 90%.

Today's WNBA moneyline combo

Wings ML

Dream ML

Valkyries ML

We've got three games tonight in which a much stronger team is playing at home against a weak opponent that won't be reaching the postseason the year. It's not the sexiest combo ever, but the smart play is taking the three favorites together on Saturday.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Ed Scimia - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Ed Scimia has been writing about the gaming industry for over 15 years. He graduated from Syracuse University with degrees in Magazine Journalism and Political Science in 2003, and has covered major gambling events like the World Series of Poker in his career. Since joining Covers in 2022, Ed has offered his sports betting analysis primarily on MLB, NFL, college football, and college basketball games, but is willing to take on any sport.

His betting strategy focuses more on finding line value based on deviations from the market rather than traditional handicapping, primarily shopping between DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics in his home state of Connecticut, though he’s not afraid to do deep game analysis to find profitable bets at any book.

Outside of gambling, Ed is an avid curler who competes in mixed doubles on the World Curling Tour and runs a popular curling YouTube channel, Chess on Ice. That experience has come in handy during the Olympics, when he has proven to be a successful curling bettor as well. 

Ed's advice to new bettors is to always open multiple sportsbook accounts and check the odds at each before placing any bet. Successful sports betting is about consistently beating the closing line value, which requires finding spots where one book is offering odds far better than the rest of the market and jumping on those opportunities.

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