Coming off their biggest loss of the year, the Las Vegas Aces might be playing with a little extra intensity as they head to Crypto.com Arena to take on the Los Angeles Sparks.
The WNBA odds have the two-time defending champs as an 11-point favorite on the road against the struggling Sparks, thanks in part to their MVP candidate.
Aces vs Sparks predictions
My best bet
A'ja Wilson Over 26.5 points (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
The Las Vegas Aces may not be playing up to their usual standards to start the season, but A’ja Wilson sure is The two-time WNBA MVP has returned with a vengeance after losing out on the league’s top honor to Breanna Stewart last year.
While it’s still early, Wilson looks like she could be the runaway MVP by the end of next week, especially with her recent play. She’s currently minus money by the WNBA MVP odds to take home the award thanks to her league-leading 28 points per game.
She’s averaging nearly 10 more points per game this season than she did in 2022 (19.5) when she earned her second MVP award, and there have been no signs of her slowing down anytime soon. Wilson has scored 28+ points in six of eight games this season, including five straight.
Now, the poor Los Angeles Sparks have to try and stop her? Good luck. L.A.’s defense ranks fifth last in rating (103.0) while giving up the fifth-most points per game in the league (82.1). It ranks in the Bottom 5 in most defensive categories, including field goals allowed per game (30.0), field goal percentage allowed (43.1%), and 2-pointers allowed (22.0).
Wilson is far too strong, skilled, and long at 6-foot-4 to be slowed down by L.A., which starts two rookies in its frontcourt (Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson). Between the Sparks’ defensive struggles and Wilson’s usage, she’s poised for yet another high-scoring night.
The five-time All-Star is taking 6.3 more field goals per game this season than last season and getting to the charity stripe at a higher rate (7.6), but it hasn’t impacted her efficiency. Wilson is still shooting 50% from the floor and 83.6% from the free-throw line.
While it’s unlikely Wilson will keep up this scoring pace all season, which would break Diana Taurasi’s single-season points per game record, the Sparks won't be the team to stop her.
Aces vs Sparks same-game parlay (SGP)
A'ja Wilson Over 26.5 points
Jackie Young Over 6.5 assists
Dearica Hamby Under 11.5 rebounds
Obviously, Wilson is the star of the show in Vegas, but the Aces’ depth is what makes this team so dangerous. There’s an argument that teammate Jackie Young should be in the MVP conversation along with Wilson.
She’s third in the WNBA in assists per game (7.0) and has been the perfect playmaker to accompany Wilson. She’s finished with Over 6.5 assists in four of her last seven games and L.A. allows the third-most assists per game in the league (21.1).
The Sparks need their best player, Dearica Hamby, to step up against this team but that's easier said than done. While she’s averaging 11.6 rebounds per game, she has to deal with Wilson. Behind her league-leading 12.3. boards per game, the Aces are fifth in the league in rebounds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aces vs Sparks odds
Aces vs Sparks live odds
Get the latest Aces vs Sparks WNBA odds for tonight.
Aces vs Sparks opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas -14.5 | Los Angeles +14.5
- Moneyline: Las Vegas -1,400 | Los Angeles +850
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 | Under 164.5
Aces vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Despite coming off a loss to the Storm, the Aces opened favored by as many as 14.5 points. The line has since come down to between 10.5 and 11.5 at most books.
- Las Vegas has struggled to cover this season, going just 3-5 ATS, but L.A. has been equally bad at 3-6-1.
- The Over/Under opened at 164.5 with most books coming down to 162.5 as tipoff approaches.
- The Aces are 4-4 betting the Over this season while the Sparks are 4-6.
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Aces vs Sparks trend
The Over is 4-0 in the Aces' last four games following an ATS loss. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Sparks.
Aces vs Sparks game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 6-9-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KVVU-TV2, Spectrum Sportsnet |
Aces vs Sparks latest injuries
Aces: Chelsea Gray G (Questionable), Kierstan Bell F (Questionable).
Sparks: Azura Stevens F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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