The curtain comes down on the 2026 WNBA regular season tonight, with final playoff seeding still hinging on a couple of key results.
My WNBA moneyline predictions dig into the five-game slate, which includes heavy favorites like the Washington Mystics at 88% and the Golden State Valkyries at 85%, and scoreboard-watching could dictate how many minutes we see from key starters.
In fact, the only real coin-flip game on the schedule is the basement battle between the Connecticut Sun and Toronto Tempo, with draft lottery odds on the line.
Here are my WNBA picks for the September 24 action.
WNBA moneyline picks: September 24
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| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Tempo vs  Sun |
56% |
 Sky vs  Mystics |
88% |
 Fever vs  Lynx |
38% |
 Valkyries vs  Sparks |
85% |
 Aces vs  Mercury |
81% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert WNBA moneyline picks: September 24
Tempo vs Sun pick: Sun
Draft odds take center stage in this matchup, as another Toronto Tempo loss would leave the two teams with equal ping-pong balls for the lottery later this year. The Connecticut Sun have dropped six in a row, but Toronto is on a more sustained skid, losing 19 of their past 20 outings.
As you would expect for a tank-tastic battle, both injury reports are lengthy — including the Tempo's Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey, and the Sun's Brittney Griner. But Connecticut hung around in Tuesday's loss in Washington, and the hosts will surely want to hold their heads high in their final home game before the franchise moves to Houston.
A leaky Toronto defense has allowed a league-worst 94.3 PPG this year, and even a limited Sun offense has a path to a healthy total tonight. The Tempo are 4-17 SU on the road in their debut season, while seven of Connecticut's 10 wins have come on its home floor.
Sky vs Mystics pick: Mystics
The Washington Mystics' ahead-of-schedule charge to the postseason has been one of the season's best stories, and I expect Shakira Austin & Co. to finish on a winning note here.
A glance at the Chicago Sky's injury list confirms that it should be one-way traffic at Capital One Arena, especially with Washington hoping to jump up to the No. 5 seed.
The Mystics have owned this matchup lately, too. The hosts are 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings between these teams, including a pair of blowout victories this year, and Chicago has dropped five of its past six outings while turning to a rotation of bench players.
As another layer to this clash, the Mystics own the Sky's 2027 draft pick, so there's even more incentive to pad the visitors' loss tally here, which may encourage Washington to give its starters a slightly longer shift.
Fever vs Lynx pick: Lynx
It's been a strange week for the Minnesota Lynx. The starters were pulled early in Tuesday's loss to the Indiana Fever and, even with the No. 1 seed in the bag, Cheryl Reeve is expected to give her big guns some minutes in tonight's rematch (with the exception of Olivia Miles).
The Lynx are 14-7 SU at Target Center this year, and a bright start here may be enough to grind out a win, as I'm not convinced Indiana will be eager to climb up to the No. 3 spot and a potential first-round matchup with the Las Vegas Aces.
Caitlin Clark is listed as probable, but the Fever could turn things over to their second unit tonight and shift their attention to the postseason. That makes Minnesota an intriguing underdog.
Valkyries vs Sparks pick: Valkyries
The Golden State Valkyries need a win to cement the No. 2 seed, so look for a full-force effort at Crypto.com Arena tonight.
While the spotlight will be on Nneka Ogwumike in her final WNBA outing, the Valkyries are poised to spoil the party, having won five straight matchups against LA. Golden State boasts an impressive 14-7 road record this year, and the visitors had put together a six-game win streak before a surprise loss to the Portland Fire this week.
Cameron Brink remains out for the Sparks, and I don't see the hosts getting any traction against a stingy Valkyries defense that allows just 75.1 PPG, easily the best mark in the league.
Aces vs Mercury pick: Aces
The Las Vegas Aces are likely to finish as the No. 3 seed, but Becky Hammon's squad can't ease off yet, with a small chance of pipping Golden State to the No. 2 spot.
That doesn't bode well for the Phoenix Mercury, who've lost nine of the past 10 meetings between these squads, including an embarrassing 106-56 no-show in July. While Phoenix shocked the Dallas Wings earlier this week, a locked-in Aces offense is a different proposition, with A'ja Wilson & Co. boasting the WNBA's joint-second most prolific attack (91.3 PPG).
Take the Las Vegas moneyline here, with the visitors arriving on a six-game win streak, all by a margin of 10+ points.
Today's WNBA moneyline combo
Sun moneyline
Mystics moneyline
Lynx moneyline
Valkyries moneyline
Aces moneyline
This combo goes big on the favorites tonight, with playoff positioning pushing some teams to lean on their starters for the regular season finale more than they might have hoped.
The quality of the Las Vegas offense and the Golden State defense make those teams standout moneyline picks, and a Minnesota starting five with something to prove feels like the best hope for a real upset.
While the Sun-Tempo clash is one that neither team will really want to win, I'm backing the slightly healthier hosts in their Connecticut farewell.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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