UFC 324 returns to Nevada tonight, with Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett taking center stage at T-Mobile Arena.
Our UFC betting team has broken down every main-card fight with expert UFC 324 predictions, picks, and top plays.
UFC 324 best bets
Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett
Rohit PonnaiyaBest bet: Paddy Pimblett by KO/TKO or submission
-110 at BET99
There’s a huge gap between these two in the grappling department. Pimblett brings high-level BJJ with smooth transitions and dangerous submissions.
Gaethje has a background as an NCAA wrestler but that hasn't translated into MMA where he's been exposed on the ground. His tendency to get off balance when throwing power shots leaves him vulnerable to judo trips and body locks.
Pimblett doesn't have the best takedowns but in a 25-minute fight, he'll be able to get this bout to the mat eventually — where he'll either sink in a sub or win via ground-and-pound.
Read Rohit's full Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett predictions.
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Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong
Rohit PonnaiyaBest bet: O'Malley by decision
+105 at BET99
O'Malley relies more on his precision and volume rather than death-touch power. Suga is eighth in UFC history in significant striking accuracy (61.2%) while ranking 10th in strike differential (+2.88).
Song is a tough fighter who has lost five times since turning 20 years old, but only one of those came inside the distance. That was a doctor's stoppage loss to Sandhagen, and even that bout went until the end of the fourth round.
With this fight scheduled for just 15 minutes, expect Song to make it to the final bell but lose on the scorecards.
Read Rohit's full Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong predictions.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis
Danny HowardBest bet: Fight does not go the distance
-255 at BET99
There’s no doubt that this fight can only end one way: Someone is getting finished.
Cortes-Acosta is going to try to test how fast Lewis can react to his combination striking, and either Lewis catches him early or Cortes-Acosta darts out and establishes his timing.
Either way, I don’t count on this fight getting to the end. My best bet is that the fight doesn’t go the distance.
Read Danny's full Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis predictions.
Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas
Danny HowardBest bet: Silva to win by decision
-160 at BET99
Silva isn’t going to stop Namajunas. She simply doesn’t have the finishing chops and won’t take the unnecessary risk to score a stoppage.
Expect Silva to slow Namajunas down with leg and body kicks while stuffing her takedown attempts, outpacing her for a clear decision win.
Read Danny's full Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas predictions.
Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva
Chris FariaBest bet: Silva by KO or submission
+125 at BET99
Despite his recent loss to Lopes, Silva is still regarded as one of the most talented and dangerous fighters in the featherweight division, and rightfully so.
Silva has finished 15 of his 16 professional wins, with 12 coming by knockout and three by submission. In fact, he’s earned a finish in all five of his UFC wins.
Silva by KO is +150, but we’re getting almost the same price for a double chance at KO or sub. A knockout is the more likely outcome, but Silva did pick up a surprise sub win over Bryce Mitchell at UFC 314, so anything can happen.
Read Chris's full Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva predictions.
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Our best UFC 323 parlay
+203 parlay
Tony SartoriAteba Gautier by KO/TKO or DQ
Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO or DQ
Paddy Pimblett moneyline
Eight of Ateba Gautier's nine professional wins have come by KO, and he consistently pressures opponents early with volume and power rather than waiting for perfect openings. While some have questioned the quality of competition he’s faced, consistent early finishes still translate, especially against defensively porous opponents.
Unlike many heavyweights, Waldo Cortes Acosta maintains strong defensive responsibility while still throwing with volume, which limits Lewis’s usual one-shot comeback opportunities. Acosta also owns a proven chin, a critical advantage against Lewis, whose primary path to victory remains landing a single nuclear punch.
Three of Acosta’s last four wins have come by KO, showing that his power is catching up to his technique.
Can Gaethje catch Paddy Pimblett? Absolutely, but Pimblett has proven tough, opportunistic, and smart enough not to live in danger longer than necessary. If Paddy sticks to grappling, manages distance intelligently, and avoids ego-driven exchanges, he has a very real chance to pull off one of the most controversial title runs in recent memory.
Read a full analysis of Tony's UFC 324 parlay picks.
