A late change to the UFC 324 card doesn’t alter the narrative of former champion Rose Namajunas being at a crossroads. Instead of fellow fading champion Alexa Grasso challenging her, it’s the upstart Natalia Silva looking to continue her climb to a potential title shot.
Silva is the favorite at -425 in the UFC odds while Namajunas is a +300 underdog. These two know how big a win will be ahead of this fight, and they're primed to deliver a show in Las Vegas.
Silva vs Namajunas prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Silva moneyline (-425 at BET99)
- My best bet: Silva to win by decision (-160 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Since her move to flyweight, there hasn’t been much Thug Rose has shown to suggest she could be anything but a high-end gatekeeper. Hard as it is to say about a former champion, she’s looked ordinary in victory and not too competitive in her losses to Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot.
Natalia Silva has won all seven of her UFC fights since 2022 and is coming off a lopsided win over Grasso last May that firmly established her credentials.
Silva’s conditioning is fantastic, and she's a busy fighter who can land quality strikes despite not possessing solid finishing skills. Her movement is fantastic, she can set up some crippling kicks, and she doesn’t get hit often with her defending 65% of significant strikes with an impressive 92% takedown defense.
Rose Namajunas is the most experienced fighter she’s ever faced, but if she can maintain distance and not allow her to grapple, then she can make things difficult for the former champion.
Namajunas doesn’t seem to have much else aside from grit and experience. While that’s gotten her outside the bubble, she’s having trouble breaking through, as her power and size demonstrated at bantamweight didn’t make the climb up in weight.
What Namajunas does well is her precision striking, though she can rely on her wrestling when she has to, and she’s demonstrated the kind of toughness expected from a former champion. However, Namajunas doesn’t look as explosive in her strikes and movement, so her path to victory against a younger and busier opponent will rely on slowing her down and picking her spots for efficiency.
Silva is the better fighter right now. There isn’t much we’ve seen from Namajunas in her recent fights that suggests she can spring the upset outside of fighting a perfect fight. As long as Silva controls the outside and doesn’t let Namajunas pin her against the cage, she can win this fight from a distance rather easily.
Best bet analysis
Silva isn’t going to stop Namajunas. She simply doesn’t have the finishing chops and won’t take the unnecessary risk to score a stoppage. Expect Silva to slow Namajunas down with leg and body kicks while stuffing her takedown attempts, outpacing her for a clear decision win.
Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Silva | Namajunas |
| To win outright | -320 | +240 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +375 | +1700 |
| To win by decision | -170 | +425 |
| To win by submission | +1700 | +1700 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 1-24.
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Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas tale of the tape
| Silva | Namajunas | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 33 |
| 5-foot-4 | Height | 5-foot-5 |
| Flyweight | Weight Class | Flyweight |
| 65 inches | Reach | 65 inches |
| 19-5-1 | Record | 14-7 |
| 5 | Wins by KO | 2 |
| 7 | Wins by submission | 5 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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