Hot on the heels of one of the biggest upsets in UFC history, with Justin Gaethje defeating Ilia Topuria at the White House, the hottest debate in the MMA world right now is what will happen at the top of the lightweight division.
Will Gaethje retire? Does Topuria deserve an immediate rematch? Will Arman Tsarukyan finally break through? What would be the ripple effect of Conor McGregor defeating Max Holloway?
Like anything these days, you can wager on it, or to be more specific, trade on it at prediction market Polymarket.
Just a month ago, the market overwhelmingly favored Ilia Topuria to be the lightweight champion at the end of 2026, with implied odds in the 75% range, but because of Gaethje’s shocking win, the market has completely flipped.
Who Will Be UFC Lightweight Champion on Dec. 31, 2026?
| Fighter |  |
|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan | 45% |
| Justin Gaethje | 34% |
| Paddy Pimblett | 16% |
| Charles Oliveira | 6% |
| Mauricio Ruffy | 6% |
| Ilia Topuria | 5% |
| Benoit Saint Denis | 5% |
| Max Holloway | 2% |
Percentages via Polymarket.
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No guarantee Tsarukyan fights for the title
With only six and a half months left to go in 2026, it’s far from a lock that Tsarukyan will even get a chance to compete for the lightweight title this year. He was briefly linked to a rematch vs. Charles Oliveira in September, but Topuria's loss has changed the landscape of the division.
It’s also possible that Tsarukyan has more work to do to get in the good graces of the UFC, as whenever he fights, trouble tends to follow:
- At UFC 300, he got into an altercation with a fan during his walkout to his fight. This resulted in a six-month suspension and a $25,000 fine from the Nevada State Athletic Commission.
- The biggest screw-up of his career came shortly after when he pulled out of a title fight vs. Islam Makhachev at UFC 311 the day before the event. Dana White wasn’t happy and said Tsarukyan would have to “fight his way back” to a title shot.
- This delayed his next fight close to a year. He easily defeated Dan Hooker, but at the ceremonial weigh-ins, he headbutted Hooker, who later revealed it broke his nose. Despite the win, White maintained his stance that Tsarukyan still has work to do.
No one can question his talent or emerging popularity on social media, but Tsarukyan has proven extremely risky to build an event around and probably needs one more — incident-free — victory before earning another title shot.
Why it makes sense to back Gaethje
The new undisputed lightweight champion has hinted at retirement, but is far from all-in. While going out on top after finally getting over the hump with an iconic victory at the White House might be appealing, so too would be the paydays attached to another high-profile fight or two.
He also, quite simply, might not be ready to retire after defeating the man many viewed as the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport today. Gaethje has openly admitted that fighting is essentially all he has, making an immediate walk-away after his crowning achievement far less likely.
If he decides he’s going to stick around, it’s likely that he won’t be looking at a quick turnaround after yet another war in the Octagon, where he absorbed 97 significant strikes against one of the hardest strikers in the sport. The soon-to-be 38-year-old will need time to both properly recover and make up his mind on what’s next.
It could make sense for the UFC to book an immediate rematch, given the fact that Topuria was undefeated entering the fight and that it was one of the most exciting fights in recent memory. If that’s the case, 2027 would be close to a lock for the rematch given Topuria suffered orbital fractures in both eyes.
The future of the division could also hinge on the result of Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor at UFC 329. The fight is being contested at 170 pounds, but both are more natural fits for the 155-pound division. If McGregor can pull off the upset, he’d be able to skip the line for a title shot at either division, while an impressive win by Holloway could propel him to a title shot vs. Gaethje, who he previously defeated at UFC 300 with one of the more memorable finishes in UFC history.
An unlikely contender…
On that same UFC 329 event, Benoit Saint Denis will take on Paddy Pimblett in the co-main event. Pimblett has a higher implied probability to be the lightweight champ by the end of the year, but that doesn’t make sense to me with Saint Denis being a near 2-to-1 favorite to win that fight.
The UFC attempted to fast-track BSD to a title shot before, but he came up short in a co-main event spot vs. Dustin Poirier, which delayed his ascension. He is, however, one of the hottest fighters in the division right now, ranking fifth thanks to four straight finish victories.
If he can pull off an impressive victory in a high-profile spot vs. the very popular Pimblett, he’d have a much better case than Tsarukyan for a title shot, which would set up one of the most exciting fights the UFC could make between him and Gaethje.
The bottom line
Whoever’s next to fight for the title might not even matter.
What this all comes down to is I don’t think the title will be defended by the end of the year, and I don’t think Gaethje will retire, meaning he would end the year as the champion, making him well worth the trade at 34¢.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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