UFC 324 Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Predictions, Picks & Odds

UFC 324 returns tonight after a six-week break, headlined by the interim lightweight championship clash between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett.

Gaethje is a long-time contender but I’m backing “Paddy the Baddy,” a rising star who enters as a -230 favorite in the latest UFC odds. 

Here are my top free predictions for UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett on Saturday, January 24. 

Gaethje vs Pimblett prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Pimblett moneyline (-230 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Pimblett by KO/TKO or submission (-110 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Since his 2020 submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov, Justin Gaethje has gone 4-2. He’s coming off a decision win over Rafael Fiziev, proving he’s still a dangerous striker with both power and technique.

Paddy Pimblett is 7-0 inside the Octagon but questions remain about the level of competition he’s faced. He's coming off the most impressive win of his career and that came against a 39-year-old Michael Chandler.

Gaethje boasts the better resume but Pimblett holds a massive grappling edge and is six years younger. He's also the more durable fighter since Gaethje has been in plenty of wars and has been finished five times.

Pimblett can be hittable, but his chin and recovery are solid. On the other hand, Gaethje has been stunned in striking exchanges multiple times — and if this fight hits the mat, Paddy will dominate.

Best bet analysis
There’s a huge gap between these two in the grappling department. Pimblett brings high-level BJJ with smooth transitions and dangerous submissions.

Gaethje has a background as an NCAA wrestler but that hasn't translated into MMA where he's been exposed on the ground. His tendency to get off balance when throwing power shots leaves him vulnerable to judo trips and body locks.

Pimblett doesn't have the best takedowns but in a 25-minute fight, he'll be able to get this bout to the mat eventually — where he'll either sink in a sub or win via ground-and-pound.

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Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett odds

Method of Victory	Gaethje	Pimblett
To win outright	+200	-245
To win by KO/TKO	+440	+500
To win by decision	+575	+350
To win by submission	+2700	+140
Draw	+3500	+3500

Odds as of 1-24.

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Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett tale of the tape

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