UFC 324 Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis Predictions, Picks & Odds

Waldo Cortes-Acosta fought five times in 2025 and is looking to make his case for a title shot in 2026. His first assignment of the year comes against the always-dangerous Derrick Lewis in one of our featured betting attractions of the UFC 324 undercard.

The UFC odds have Cortes-Acosta as the favorite at -340 while Lewis is a +255 underdog.

While Cortes-Acosta is a comfortable favorite, Lewis’ power cannot be ignored, and my Cortes-Acosta vs. Lewis predictions believe this fight won't go the distance. 

Cortes-Acosta vs Lewis prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Lewis moneyline (+255 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Fight does not go the distance (-255 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Last year, Waldo Cortes-Acosta fought five times and won four of them, losing only to former title challenger Sergei Pavlovich, and is coming off back-to-back first-round knockouts. He is making his case for a title shot once the waters at heavyweight settle, and it feels like this fight with Derrick Lewis is an attempt to sell him as a future challenger. Lewis is starting to drop off, though he remains formidable thanks to his undeniable power.

We’ve seen Waldo-Cortes turn up the intensity in his last two fights, stopping Ante Delija and Shamil Gaziev rather impressively. He’s normally a mover who uses his hand speed to either accumulate damage or points, and he often wins by decision. In a division where legacies are determined by one meaningful shot, Cortes-Acosta has never come across as a power-puncher. It will be interesting to see how Cortes-Acosta approaches this fight, particularly as Lewis needs one punch to end things and Cortes-Acosta might feel more confident in his power than usual based on his current streak.

Lewis only needed 35 seconds to put Tallison Teixeira out, emphasizing how dangerous he remains. Though he’s 5-5 over his last 10 fights, most of those losses came against the top of the heavyweight division, and he’s won his last two fights heading into this critical bout with Cortes-Acosta. Lewis is extremely resilient and is willing to take shots and trust his chin to keep himself in position to deal a kill shot, and Cortes-Acosta isn’t defensively sharp enough to compensate for his lack of power.

Cortes-Acosta’s loose defense won’t serve him well in this fight. Lewis is the better striker in a fight that will not go to the mat, takes fewer chances to maximize his power, and watching Pavlovich and Marcos Rogerio de Lima pick Cortes-Acosta apart suggests that Lewis is being overlooked. I’m banking on Lewis to exploit Cortes-Acosta’s defensive holes and score an upset. Lewis is the pick

Best bet analysis
There’s no doubt that this fight can only end one way: Someone is getting finished. Cortes-Acosta is going to try to test how fast Lewis can react to his combination striking, and either Lewis catches him early or Cortes-Acosta darts out and establishes his timing. Either way, I don’t count on this fight getting to the end. My best bet is that the fight doesn’t go the distance.

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Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis odds

Method of Victory	Cortes-Acosta	Lewis
To win outright	-340	+255
To win by KO/TKO	-115	+375
To win by decision	+285	+850
To win by submission	+2100	+2100
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 1-24.

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Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis tale of the tape

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