Japan hopes to keep its chances alive of topping Group F when they take on Tunisia late Saturday night.
Hervé Renard begins his time at the helm abruptly, and my Japan vs. Tunisia predictions explain why he’s not going to get a friendly welcome from the Asian power.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Sunday, June 21, with kickoff at 12 a.m. ET on FS1.
Who will win Japan vs Tunisia: Japan -1.5 (+140)
When you fire your manager after one match at the World Cup, there’s something terribly wrong with your team.
But changing the manager won’t fix what ails this side. The manager wasn’t the one making terrible passes leading to turnovers, and he certainly wasn’t responsible for Tunisia creating just two shots from open play—both of which came in the opening 30 minutes.
What makes this such a dangerous matchup for Tunisia is their inability to create chances in the final third. Japan’s compact 3-4-3 setup is difficult to break down when you have creative players, and Tunisia failed to create a clear chance against Sweden.
Japan operated in a low block 50% of the time against the Dutch. They held the Netherlands to just 0.78 xG, with one of their conceded goals coming from a sublime header by Virgil van Dijk off a corner.
They’ll do the same against Tunisia, punishing this poor defense on the counter-attack as they win by multiple goals. Play this down to +160.
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TOp pick
Japan vs Tunisia Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (+109)
I’m sorry, I’m getting plus-money odds on three or more goals being scored. In a match involving this Tunisian defense? You don’t have to tell me twice.
Tunisia has struggled against nations that can run at them. Belgium ripped them apart 5-0 in their final warm-up match as Jeremy Doku notched two assists in a Man Of The Match performance.
Ademola Lookman and Victor Osimhen helped Nigeria to a 3-2 win at AFCON in a similar fashion, while Brazil’s 1-1 draw in November 2025 saw them fail to do more with their 21 shots and 34 touches inside the penalty area.
Over their last three matches, Tunisia has allowed a total of 11 big chances. Sweden generated four of those, scoring five goals from just 1.33 xG, thanks to poor Tunisian defending and abysmal goalkeeping.
Japan isn’t a side that scores a ton of goals due to their defensive structure. But goal differential will likely become a factor in deciding the outcome of Group F, making this a spot where they’ll want to pile on if they have the chance.
Tunisia must get a win if they have any hopes of staying alive in World Cup 2026, which means more bodies committed to attack and an increase in the likelihood they get hit on the break
So I’ll take this as my best play, playing it to +100.
Japan vs Tunisia projected lineup
Japan (3-4-3): Suzuki; Ito, Watanabe, Taniguchi; Doan, Tanaka, Sano, Nakamura; Ogawa, Ueda, Kamada
Tunisia (4-3-3): Dahmen; Valery, Rekik, Talbi, Abdi; Mejbri, Skhiri, Khedira; Tounekti, Saad, Achouri.
Japan vs Tunisia injuries
Japan: CM Wutaru Endo (Out), RW Takefusa Kubo (Out).
Tunisia: None.
Japan vs Tunisia weather
Temperatures will be in the mid-70s at kickoff, with light winds and an 18% chance of rain.
Japan vs Tunisia odds
| Japan | Tunisia | |
|---|---|---|
| -186 | Moneyline | +317 |
| +614 | Draw | +614 |
| Over 2.5 (+117) | Total | Under 2.5 (-122) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Japan vs Tunisia
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Mexico |
| Date | Sunday, June 21, 2026 |
| Time | 12 a.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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