Kansas City Chiefs

Picks

Josh Allen has done damage with his legs during his entire pro career, but has really run over the Chiefs in their rivalry. Kansas City is among the worst defenses at slowing dual-threat QBs and Allen enters with five rushing touchdowns on the season, including two last weekend against Carolina. He gets red zone runs and goal line "tush pushes" and can make something happen with his legs when passing plays break down. Surprised to see this ATTD price at plsu-money considering just how dangerous Allen is when he sees the goal line.

It’s MVP vs. MVP, and I’m backing Josh Allen to find the end zone at plus money. Allen has scored four rushing touchdowns in his last four games against the Chiefs and is coming off a game where he ran just three times for seven yards—but two of those carries went for scores. The Bills have their own version of the tush push, and when they get inside the five, James Cook TD bettors have every reason to sweat, as Allen continues to steal short-yardage touchdowns. Last week, his TD price closed at -120, and it’s been as short as -165 this season. In a high-profile matchup like this, Allen should rise to the occasion at home, where he’s scored 37 rushing touchdowns in 58 career games. It's an A+ at +110, and I'd play it to -120. 

Keon Coleman has stayed below his receiving yards prop in three of the last four weeks, including just three catches on four targets for 30 yards in last Sunday’s blowout of the Panthers. Some of that was Buffalo playing with a lead and running more but OC Joe Brady admitted this week that he has to do a better job getting Coleman involved in the offense. Projections for Coleman range from 37 yards to a ceiling of 57, with the majority of models coming in north of 40 yards receiving. Given the high point total for this showdown with the Chiefs, there could be more passing opportunities and targets coming Coleman’s way in Week 9.

This Sunday’s marquee showdown between the Chiefs and Bills will feel like a playoff game, which means Josh Allen is doing it all. The Buffalo QB makes plays with his legs in the biggest games and has run up and down Spagnuolo’s defense in recent meetings: 39, 42, 55, 68, 72, 88. No. Those aren’t tonight’s winning lotto numbers – those are some Allen’s recent rushing tallies versus KC. Add in the fact, the Chiefs have given up the third most rushing yards to QBs so far in 2025 and some Allen projections north of 40 and I like him to top 35.5 rushing yards in Week 9.

The most important edge for the Bills, however, is their rushing game. Buffalo is going to go heavy with RB James Cook and QB Josh Allen, who can pull back the curtain on this Kansas City defense. The Chiefs have been very stingy during this current turnaround but a lot of that has to do with building big leads early. That’s forcing opponents to abandon the run (third lowest run rate against in last three games) and throw into the teeth of this Steve Spagnoulo scheme. Kansas City is near the bottom of the league in run stop win rate at ESPN, is 23rd in run stop rating at PFF, and sits No. 22 in EPA allowed per handoff. In their last three head-to-head battles, the Bills have marched for 433 total rushing yards on 102 attempts. Buffalo’s dominance with the run in 2025 has made it the top “TOP” team in the league, chewing through 33:14 worth of possession per game and limiting opponents’ opportunities with the football.