Kansas City Chiefs Picks
1st in AFC West
(2 - 0 - 0)
Next Game
Sun, Sep 27
13:00 ET
KC @ MIA Picks
NFL PicksEV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At the present time, the 5th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (61.8% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.. The 8th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs since the start of last season (a massive 59.1 per game on average).. With a high 15.4% Red Zone Target% (78th percentile) this year, Rashee Rice ranks as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.. Rashee Rice ranks in the 77th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a colossal 49.4 mark since the start of last season.. The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
At the present time, the 5th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (61.8% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.. The 8th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs since the start of last season (a massive 59.1 per game on average).. The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.. Patrick Mahomes has been among the best TD throwers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 1.69 per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.. Since the start of last season, the poor Miami Dolphins defense has yielded a monstrous 75.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are heavy underdogs in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.. De'Von Achane has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.0% since the start of last season, which places him in the 96th percentile among RBs.. When talking about air yards, De'Von Achane grades out in the towering 96th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, totaling a massive 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. De'Von Achane ranks in the 99th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a superb 32.3 figure since the start of last season.. De'Von Achane ranks in the 92nd percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 0.20 per game.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
At the present time, the 5th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (61.8% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.. The 8th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs since the start of last season (a massive 59.1 per game on average).. The projections expect Kenneth Walker III to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this game (13.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.5% in games he has played).. The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.. Since the start of last season, the poor Miami Dolphins defense has yielded a monstrous 75.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.
Consensus Picks
More Consensus
64% picking Kansas City
Total Picks KC 301, MIA 171
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KC
MIA
KC @ MIA · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TOTAL
Under
46.5 Total
42.85 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.7
DIFFERENCE
20.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
R. Rice
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.54 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
23.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
P. Mahomes
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
18.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Achane
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.68 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
18.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Walker III
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.89 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
17.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Willis
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
3.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Kelce
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.32 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-8.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
G. Dulcich
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.16 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-10.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Washington
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.21 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-13.9%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
TOTAL
Under
46.5 Total
42.85 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.7
DIFFERENCE
20.14%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
R. Rice
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.54 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
23.04%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
P. Mahomes
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
18.95%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Achane
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.68 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
18.35%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Walker III
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.89 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
17.97%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Willis
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
3.22%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Kelce
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.32 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-8.91%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
G. Dulcich
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.16 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-10.13%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Washington
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.21 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-13.9%
EV
KC @ MIA · Trends
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Top User Picks
More Picks
'MAFIVARO' is picking Miami to cover (+11.5)
MAFIVARO is #1 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
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MIA
'ASkinsFanInDixi' is picking Miami to cover (+7.5)
ASkinsFanInDixi is #4 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
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MIA
'JLGiants38' is picking Kansas City to cover (-8.5)
JLGiants38 is #5 on picking games that Kansas City is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
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KC
MIA
'StanMarsh' is picking Kansas City to cover (-8.5)
StanMarsh is #7 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
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KC
MIA
'Rossi35' is picking Kansas City to cover (-10.5)
Rossi35 is #8 on picking games that Kansas City is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
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KC
MIA
'ptrixie' is picking Kansas City to cover (-11.5)
ptrixie is #9 on picking games that Kansas City is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
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KC
MIA