Best NFL Picks Today

Marks to handle 15 or more carries is in play to 56% because he's set for a lead role in the Houston backfield after rushing for a respectable 4.1 yards per carry for 62 total in Week 5, and David Montgomery (groin) sidelined. I’m also expecting the Houston offense to look to attack on the ground more this week to help mitigate a Jacksonville pass rush ranking seventh in pressure percentage. Houston has the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback when pressured, and QB C.J. Stroud has a 46.2 completion percentage for just 4.8 yards per attempt under pressure, after all.

Pollard's rushing prop is playable up to 64+ yards. Indianapolis ranks last in rushing EPA allowed and run-stop win rate, while a competitive Tennessee game script should keep Pollard involved throughout the second half.

The odds make it an expensive prop, but the Panthers are going to be running the ball and killing the clock late. Philly is 27th in time of possession. So Hubbard will get a steady diet of carries. 

Freiermuth's anytime TD is playable up to 28%. He leads Pittsburgh in receiving touchdowns and has been highly efficient when targeted, while the Steelers' other weapons help create favorable coverage looks near the goal line.

Playable up to -125 or 92.5. Henry leads the league with 113 carries while averaging 95.2 YPG on the ground, and yet there's room for more with Jackson sidelined and the Browns dealing with injuries across the defensive line. Henry has gone past this O/U number in eight of his last 10 outings.

Skattebo's anytime TD is playable up to 50%. New Orleans has allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the league and ranks 30th in defensive stuff rate, giving Skattebo a strong goal-line matchup if he gets short-yardage carries.

Play up to 35%. Brian Robinson Jr. has scored four rushing touchdowns on only 51 carries, converting four of his five red-zone attempts. With Atlanta leaning heavily on the ground game and Chicago missing key defenders, Robinson should get another scoring opportunity.

Hunter Henry has had his two most productive games of the year over the past two weeks. He's picked up a combined 106 yards on eight catches over the span, and scored a touchdown last Sunday against the Los Angeles Raiders. I like Henry to score a touchdown at 36% or lower.

Higbee's receiving Over is playable up to 42+ yards. He's cleared 62 yards in three straight games, leads the Rams in QB rating when targeted, and faces an Arizona defense allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.

With Rashee Rice not practicing midweek after having Week 5 off, it's looking more likely that Jalen Royals will run as the No. 2 wide receiver Sunday vs. the Chargers. That should price Royals at 4x, not the 5.5x available Friday. The loss of Tyquan Thornton only opens up more snaps for Royals, who should see 70% of the snaps against a defense that currently has six starters listed as questionable for Sunday. It's been a couple of weeks since we've seen the Chiefs, who rank fourth in EPA/play, but with an implied team total of 25 points, Royals as a WR2 is a good look at this price.

Buffalo is 4-1 to the Over, with games averaging 61 combined points. The Raiders have allowed 34 points per game over their last three. They’re totally screwed against this Bills offense. Las Vegas can contribute, though, having scored 27 points in both of their home games. Buffalo has surrendered at least 29 in four of five outings. Neither defense should ruin the fun. Don’t overthink it.

At 42%, give me Christian Watson to score a touchdown for the Green Bay Packers against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. I price Watson closer to 48% to find the end zone, giving us a solid edge over the market. Dallas has struggled mightily against the run, and when Green Bay gets into the red zone and approaches the goal line, the Cowboys may have to stack the box to slow down the ground game. That could leave Watson isolated on the boundary, where he would only need to win his one-on-one matchup to deliver a green checkmark on this prop.

That elbow brace certainly didn’t slow Jayden Daniels down last week: 103 rushing yards on nine carries against the Giants. He also ran for 69 against Dallas before exiting at halftime and averages 50.8 per game in his career. San Francisco’s defense is tough, but chasing points could create plenty of extra scrambling opportunities.