Best NFL Picks Today

While the Packers have been bad in their own right, the Falcons have been arguably the worst team in the NFL, ranking 29th in total offense and dead-last in passing (to nobody's surprise) with just 129 yards through the air per game through two weeks of the season. Even with Penix starting, going on the road to Lambeau Field to take on a hungry Packers team that ranks fifth in total defense will be a tall task. Talk about being thrown into the fire.

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (57.8% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.. The 8th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs since the start of last season (a massive 59.1 per game on average).. The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.. Patrick Mahomes has been among the best TD throwers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 1.69 per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.. Since the start of last season, the poor Miami Dolphins defense has yielded a monstrous 75.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

The Cleveland Browns finished No. 6 in EPA per dropback in Week 2. Deshaun Watson had his best game in a long time despite the Bucs bringing the heat, picking up 7.0 yards per pass. Carolina has thrown on 64% of dropbacks after a shootout with Chicago and a squash of Atlanta to kick off 2026. Quarterback Bryce Young is thriving with offensive coordinator Brad Idzik calling plays. He’s Top 10 in all the fancy passing stats, including air yards. Both teams have given up plays over the top, sitting sixth and seventh in most air yards allowed. The Panthers defense looks tougher than it truly is after fattening up on the Falcons’ backup QBs in Week 2. Carolina still got gashed for 157 rushing yards from Atlanta, despite focusing their energy on stuffing the run.

Grabbing this -5.5 line before Monday Night Football because I’m expecting the Giants to hang with the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, and New York will be an even larger home favorite over Tennessee by Sunday afternoon. The Titans were only on offense for 23:35 against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, and QB Cam Ward has thrown for just 6.2 yards per attempt through two weeks. Tennessee also hits the highway for the first time in 2026, and the new-look G-Men put on an offensive clinic in their season opener at MetLife Stadium. 

I won’t discount the Jaguars too much for having a tough day in Denver. Jacksonville gets to come home for what will be its only outing in Duval County until Week 8. The Patriots looked much better than they were against the corpse of Aaron Rodgers in Week 2. New England managed just 20 points – seven coming from a defensive score – went 4-for-12 on third down and 0 for 1 in the red zone. This Jaguars defense still did a lot right against the Broncos, standing tall on third downs and inside the red zone. I’ll take the home side short of the key number of three.

Buffalo's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and running stats inflated) considering playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.. Josh Allen has been one of the top TD passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 1.50 per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.. When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been awful since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the league.

The New York Jets have allowed just 4.0 yards per play, third-best in the NFL, and rank sixth in EPA per defensive play for the season. And while the Detroit Lions have given up an embarrassing 457.5 yards per game on defense, Geno Smith and the New York offense haven't shown any signs that they can even approach that kind of number. I'm backing the Under at totals as low as 47.5 points.

We have two teams that have hit the Over in three of four games this year, leading me to believe that this number is far too low. The Colts' defense is simply the worst in football so far, giving up a total of eight touchdowns through two weeks. Most of these are due to a struggling red-zone unit, which is coughing up a score 67% of the time. So what's been working for Indy? Undeniably, its offense, which is scoring at an 84% clip once they get inside the 20. While yes, the Colts are going up against one of the better defensive units in football, Houston has still allowed over 350 yards of total offense in the early parts of 2026. What does this all add up to? An Over. Play this up to 55%.

Pittsburgh takes a series step up in competition and this is no longer the Steelers we could count on under Mike Tomlin. Aaron Rodgers is done and Cincinnati is looking like the best two-way team in the NFL, after handling Houston on the road in Week 3. The Bengals have collected eight sacks in the first two games and I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodgers doesn’t make it through Week 3, given the pounding he took in New England.  Oh, and Joe Burrow is absolutely firing on all cylinders. He’s surgical versus zone coverage and will slice up Patrick Graham’s passive playcalling. I'm taking Cincy ML before this price ticks up to two bucks or higher.

The 49ers have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.. Brock Purdy's throwing accuracy has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 70.0% to 82.0%.. Brock Purdy has been one of the best touchdown passers in football since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 1.79 per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.. The Cardinals defense has been torched for the 6th-most passing TDs in the league: 1.79 per game since the start of last season.

We're seeing two mediocre offenses against two top-10 defenses in Week 3. The Vikings have had to play mistake-free football on both sides of the ball - their defense has allowed an average of just 12.5 points per game as a result. It's also one of the best red-zone defenses this year, allowing a touchdown on just 12% of trips inside the 20. With positive regression looming for the Bucs' defense against Murray and Co. I'm projecting this total to close closer to 40.5.

Baltimore just allowed New Orleans Saints QB Tyler Shough to throw for 7.4 yards per attempt with a 79.4 completion percentage in Week 2, and now the Ravens go up against a Dallas offense that’s fourth in both EPA per play and offensive success rate ahead of Monday Night Football in Week 2. Of course, there’s no stop on defense for the Cowboys, and the Ravens respectively check in sixth and third in the two highlighted metrics. Finally, I anticipate the trip south to Maracana Stadium to also take its toll on the two defenses in Week 3.