sponsorship banner background
Kalshi Sports logo
Player Team Over 50.5 points
🔥 FEATURED TRADE

Best NFL Picks Today

Find the best NFL bets today - Oct. 4, 2026. Free expert and computer picks for every NFL game.

New Computer Picks powered by Odds Shark

Predicted Score

MIA logo
MIA
MIA

14.86 @ 26.39

MIN
MIN logo
MIN

Dolphins vs Vikings · Prediction & Game Odds

Team

Predicted Score

Spread

Total

ML

MIA logo
MIA
MIA

14.86

+10.5 -120

o38.0 -108

+450

MIN logo
MIN
MIN

26.39

-10.5 -103

u38.5 -110

-510

Kansas City @ Las Vegas
Matchup Stats

Predicted Score

KC logo
KC
KC

26.77 @ 22.27

LV
LV logo
LV

Chiefs vs Raiders · Prediction & Game Odds

Team

Predicted Score

Spread

Total

ML

KC logo
KC
KC

26.77

-4.5 -108

o47.5 -105

-225

LV logo
LV
LV

22.27

+4.5 -102

u48.0 -113

+195

Top Projection Kirk Cousins o0.5 Rushing Yards (-102)
o0.5+100
L.A. Chargers @ Seattle
Matchup Stats

Predicted Score

LAC logo
LAC
LAC

18.94 @ 25.75

SEA
SEA logo
SEA

Chargers vs Seahawks · Prediction & Game Odds

Team

Predicted Score

Spread

Total

ML

LAC logo
LAC
LAC

18.94

+7.5 -115

o42.5 -110

+295

SEA logo
SEA
SEA

25.75

-7.5 +105

u43.5 -123

-350

Top Projection Emanuel Wilson o44.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
o43.5-113
Denver @ San Francisco
Matchup Stats

Predicted Score

DEN logo
DEN
DEN

24.21 @ 25.09

SF
SF logo
SF

Broncos vs 49ers · Prediction & Game Odds

Team

Predicted Score

Spread

Total

ML

DEN logo
DEN
DEN

24.21

+3.5 -135

o47.5 -120

+140

SF logo
SF
SF

25.09

-3.5 +105

u48.5 -115

-152

Top Projection Bo Nix o220.5 Passing Yards (-115)
o220.5-115
Detroit @ Carolina
Matchup Stats

Predicted Score

DET logo
DET
DET

27.26 @ 23.79

CAR
CAR logo
CAR

Lions vs Panthers · Prediction & Game Odds

Team

Predicted Score

Spread

Total

ML

DET logo
DET
DET

27.26

-3.5 -110

o50.5 -118

-197

CAR logo
CAR
CAR

23.79

+3.5 +100

u51.5 -108

+175

Top Projection Jared Goff o0.5 Rushing Yards (-122)
o0.5-122
Atlanta @ New Orleans
Matchup Stats

Predicted Score

ATL logo
ATL
ATL

23.92 @ 23.06

NO
NO logo
NO

Falcons vs Saints · Prediction & Game Odds

Team

Predicted Score

Spread

Total

ML

ATL logo
ATL
ATL

23.92

+2.5 -114

o47.5 -109

+110

NO logo
NO
NO

23.06

-2.5 -105

u48.0 -110

-125

Top Projection Tyler Shough o16.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
o15.5-115
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail MIA @ Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail MIN Sun, Oct 4 • 4:05 PM ET
Receptions Made
Malik Washington logo Malik Washington o3.5 Receptions Made (-143)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Quinn Allen logo
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Play up to 60%. Malik Washington leads Miami with 12 receptions and is averaging 7.66 targets per game through three weeks. He has cleared this number in back-to-back contests, and Minnesota’s biggest defensive weakness has come against the pass. With consistent volume, four catches is a very manageable threshold.

Anytime Touchdown
Jordan Addison logo Jordan Addison Score a Touchdown (Yes: +129)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Quinn Allen logo
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Play up to 45%. Jordan Addison could see an even larger role if Justin Jefferson remains sidelined. He sits just one target behind Jefferson for the team lead and stepped up immediately last week with five catches for 90 yards and a touchdown. His big-play ability makes him an appealing scoring option against Miami.

View 16 Picks
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail KC @ Las Vegas Raiders image thumbnail LV Sun, Oct 4 • 4:25 PM ET
Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce logo Travis Kelce o49.5 Receiving Yards (+101)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
Jason Ence logo
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst

Not only do I think this total is far too low, I'm backing it to 54% and laddering Kelce to 80 yards.

He's averaging 16.5 yards per catch despite an ADOT of 6.9 yards, and leads the Chiefs in targets, catches, and yards.

The Raiders got burned by Noah Fant and Juwan Johnson last week for 86 yards and four TDs, and Kelce will be looked to early and often as Patrick Mahomes deals with the Raider pass rush. 

Receptions Made
Brock Bowers logo Brock Bowers o6.5 Receptions Made (-132)
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 hours ago
Jason Ence logo
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst

Brock Bowers should have a strong game, and I'm backing this play to 56%.

The Chiefs run man coverage the third-most in the NFL this season, and Bowers caught four of five passes against such coverage in his debut last week—not to mention 10 catches on 12 targets overall as Kirk Cousins looked for him often.

He lined up wide or in the slot 32 total times and had an ADOT of 12.0 yards, and will be a huge mismatch for the Chiefs.

View 18 Picks
Los Angeles Chargers image thumbnail LAC @ Seattle Seahawks image thumbnail SEA Sun, Oct 4 • 4:25 PM ET
Anytime Touchdown
Omarion Hampton logo Omarion Hampton Score a Touchdown (Yes: +124)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

Hampton's anytime TD is playable up to 50%. He's posted a 52% rushing success rate with two touchdowns, and I'm expecting the Chargers offense to bounce back, giving its lead back opportunities to finish drives near the goal line.

Rushing Yards
Justin Herbert logo Justin Herbert o19.5 Rushing Yards (-132)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

Herbert's rushing prop is playable to 22+ yards. Seattle's elite pass rush should force him out of the pocket, while a likely negative game script could produce more hero ball. He's cleared 21 yards in 13 of his last 20 games.

View 15 Picks
Denver Broncos image thumbnail DEN @ San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail SF Sun, Oct 4 • 4:25 PM ET
Rushing Yards
J.K. Dobbins logo J.K. Dobbins u59.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

Dobbins' rushing Under is playable down to 55.5 yards. He's averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on a 42.2% snap share, and a Niners lead could further limit his rushing volume against a Top-10 run defense.

Anytime Touchdown
Deebo Samuel Sr. logo Deebo Samuel Sr. Score a Touchdown (Yes: +166)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

Deebo Samuel's anytime TD is playable up to 40%. Shanahan manufactures touches for him as both a receiver and runner, while injuries elsewhere in San Francisco's receiving corps could further concentrate opportunities around Deebo this week.

View 17 Picks
Detroit Lions image thumbnail DET @ Carolina Panthers image thumbnail CAR Sun, Oct 4 • 8:20 PM ET
Anytime Touchdown
Amon-Ra St. Brown logo Amon-Ra St. Brown Score a Touchdown (Yes: -116)
Best Odds
Pick made: 21 hours ago
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

St. Brown's anytime TD is playable up to 57%. Detroit moves him all over the formation against a depleted Carolina secondary, and he's already scored five times this season after reaching double-digit receiving touchdowns in each of the previous three years.

Score First Touchdown
Tetairoa McMillan logo Tetairoa McMillan Score First Touchdown (Yes: +1074)
Best Odds
Pick made: 21 hours ago
Geoff Clark logo
Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

McMillan's first TD is playable up to 13%. He's Bryce Young's No. 1 target and has a major size advantage over Detroit's outside cornerbacks, giving Carolina an obvious red-zone matchup to attack.

View 29 Picks
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail ATL @ New Orleans Saints image thumbnail NO Mon, Oct 5 • 8:15 PM ET
Receiving Yards
Drake London logo Drake London o79.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

It's tough to ignore the chemistry between Michael Penix and Drake London. The wide receiver saw 10 targets last week on a short week and turned that into a monster nine-catch, 194-yard game. It was the seventh game these two have played together and the sixth time London has hit the century mark. He’s averaged 120 receiving yards per game with Penix getting him the ball. The projection for London this week is 86 yards, and the market has been on the move after opening at 72.5. It might be late for that number, but the indoor setting, the potential passing-game script as a road dog, the Saints owning a bottom-five success-rate defense against both the run and pass, and the cluster of linebacker injuries have me reaching for 80+ and his 100+ alternatives at 34%.

Spread
Atlanta Falcons image thumbnail ATL +2.5 (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

Michael Penix gets extra rest and was a Top-4 quarterback in EPA/dropback last week, while the cluster of injuries to the Saints’ linebackers is going to be a problem for the 2.5-point favorite. I’m backing the Falcons on the spread Monday, with THE BLITZ having Atlanta as a near coinflip to win the game at 48.9% probability. The Saints were already a defense giving up 27.7 points per game (26th) and ranked 31st in success rate, and now they have to stop a rejuvenated Atlanta offense with competent quarterback play while potentially missing 75% of its starting linebacker unit and some depth. Bijan Robinson is coming off a 200-plus-yard game and could do similar damage against a thin New Orleans defense indoors. Look for the Falcons to control the ball and be the better defense. Atlanta is the No. 3 success-rate defense.

View 17 Picks

For every matchup in an NFL season, our NFL computer produces selections for a variety of different betting angles. Our computer picks are based on a proprietary algorithm that values each team in the current week to produce moneyline, spread, and point total selections.

The table above, below the game picks, tracks our NFL computer's results over the last 100 games, outlining the record and profit for selections, based on $100 unit size. We track the profit based on both opening and closing lines for every matchup.

How to Use NFL Computer Picks

The easiest way to utilize our computer picks is to simply follow our selections for every matchup, what you'd call ailing the computer." But there are other ways to utilize our NFL computer picks, as well.

You can use our NFL computer as a jumping-off point to do more research into specific lines, cross-referencing with expert picks, which can be found above the selections for some matchups, recent NFL betting trends, and more.

As well, you can gauge the confidence of the matchup. The larger the projected score, the more confident the computer is in a specific pick.

Or, if you want to implement a system, betting only on underdogs, for example, you can look for matchups in which our computer likes the underdog to inform which picks you're going to hone in on for a given week.

We have these computer picks for every sport you're looking to wager on, as well:

Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark

Moneyline

NFL moneyline picks are the simplest way to get in on the NFL action. All you have to do is simply bet on which team you think will win the game.

For moneyline picks, the favorite is represented with a minus sign (-) in front of the odds, while the underdog has a plus (+). However, you don't get the same profit for picking an underdog compared to a favorite. If the favored team is -120, a $100 bet on them would pay out $80 in profit and $180 total, if they win the game. The underdog winning at +150 would pay out a $150 profit, $250 total.

We have a complete breakdown of how to read NFL moneyline odds for these NFL computer picks.

Spread

While moneyline picks are the simplest, picking NFL games against the spread is probably the most common wager for regular NFL bettors.

To bet an NFL spread, you wager on whether a team will win by a certain number of points or more or if they'll lose by fewer points than the spread. For example, if the spread is -6.5 for the New England Patriots, you would win the bet if they win the game by 7 points or more. Or if a team is +6.5, you're betting on if they'll win outright or lose by fewer than 6.5 points.

There is a correlation between moneyline odds and the spread, as books set these lines based on the same information.

You can read more about NFL spreads here.

Totals (Over/Under)

If you aren’t entirely sold on which NFL team will win or cover in an NFL game, you can still use our NFL computer picks to bet on the point total.

As opposed to taking a side, in total or Over/Under betting, you wager on whether both NFL teams will combine for a final score of more than (Over) or less than (Under) the total number of points set by oddsmakers.

The computer picks, and your handicapping of totals is more about how you think both teams will score points, not which team has the edge to win.

More NFL Picks & Betting Tools

Our NFL Computer Picks are a great way to place weekly football wagers, but you should also consider handicapping games yourself using some of our other tools. If you're looking to bet on long-term futures this football season, check out some of our other dedicated pages:

Best Football Betting Sites

If you’re ready to bet on NFL picks, you first need to find the right sportsbook. Our NFL betting sites guide offers secure banking, the best odds, bonuses, and reliable customer service options for you.

NFL Free Picks FAQs

When do we release our NFL picks?

Covers NFL picks are released two to three days before each game on the NFL schedule.

What kinds of NFL picks do we make?

Covers provides free NFL picks covering many markets, including point spreads, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.