Best NFL Picks Today

Downs has yet to reach the endzone this season, but he leads the Colts in targets (24) and reception yards (186) and ranks second in receptions (14). 

Washington has surrendered six receiving touchdowns to wideouts this season, tied with the Arizona Cardinals for most in the NFL.

With Keenan Allen (groin) a non-participant in Friday’s practice and Alec Pierce (heel), the Colts’ receiving depth is razor thin heading to London, and Downs should see even more looks in this highly-exploitable matchup.

Brissett threw for two touchdowns last week against the San Francisco 49ers, and the Giants allowed six touchdown passes through the first two weeks of the season. The New York defensive injuries aren’t being fully accounted for in this prop, and I’d recommend Brissett for two-plus passing touchdowns to +100 because the Giants are being given too much credit for a strong defensive game in miserable weather against the Tennessee Titans in Week 3.

Cook already has two touchdowns this season, and the volume suggests there are plenty more to come. He's left some meat on the bone with Josh Allen vulturing a few scoring opportunities, but the workload remains extremely encouraging. Against the Patriots, Cook should see similar volume inside the 20, and that’s all I need to back him heading into Week 4. Averaging just around 20 totes per game against a defense allowing teams to score at a 62% clip in the red zone, Cook is as safe a bet as you're going to get in this game.

While the Chicago Bears deploy D'Andre Swift primarily in the running game, he's also capable of making noise in the passing attack. The result is that Swift has had at least 88 total yards from scrimmage in each of Chicago's first three games. I see that streak continuing without issue against the Jets, and I'm taking Swift to get 80+ combined yards at 60% or lower.

Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson has seen his involvement in the Cowboys’ passing attack tick up the past two games, drawing a total of nine passes for seven receptions and a collective 66 yards. He’s run 82 routes on 128 total snaps, garnering a 10.9% target rate through three games, which is pretty good when you consider CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are on the field. Ferguson faces a Houston defense getting bullied by tight ends this season. The Texans have watched rival TEs catch 18 of 21 pass attempts for 213 yards – fourth most in the NFL. Houston’s linebacking corps is thin and its top coverage LBs are either injured or out in Week 4. Ferguson’s projections are very positive for Sunday, ranging from 25 yards to a ceiling of 38 yards. My number shakes out to 31+ receiving yards from the Dallas TE.

I got this at 4.3x, and if both Terrance Ferguson and Colby Parkinson sit, this should have a fair price of 3.5x. The Rams use heavy tight-end sets at one of the highest rates in football, and even if Puka Nacua suits up, Tyler Higbee will have a ton of snaps. He took advantage of those snaps last week, seeing nine targets and leading the team with eight receptions and a score. He also has the same number of red-zone targets as Davante Adams. The Rams' PROE is climbing after a run-heavy game in Australia, and a negative game script could have Matthew Stafford throwing the ball 40-plus times again this week. I'm getting on this early, as Ferguson is likely out and Parkinson isn't practicing early in the week. Davis Allen to score at 9x is also worth a sniff.

So much for Cincinnati’s defensive turnaround. The previously incompetent Steelers burned them for 30 points and 7.0 yards per play in Week 3. These defenses rank 24th and 25th in explosive play rate allowed, while Jacksonville’s offense is buzzing to open the season and Cincinnati dropped 33 points in its lone home game. These teams combined for 58 here last season with Jake Browning playing most of the snaps for the Bengals. Six of Cincinnati’s last nine home games reached at least 58 points.

Play up to 60%. Malik Washington leads Miami with 12 receptions and is averaging 7.66 targets per game through three weeks. He has cleared this number in back-to-back contests, and Minnesota’s biggest defensive weakness has come against the pass. With consistent volume, four catches is a very manageable threshold.

I got this at 2.95x, and Brock Bowers should be in that 2.6x range in a tough matchup. It's an indoor home game, which helps, but Bowers also saw 13 targets last week (43% target share) and had double-digit receptions and a score. He has a 92% route share on the season, and his monstrous 43.3% target share leads all of football. I don't care who the home matchup is against. If I'm getting 2.7x or better with this target share, I'm saying yes every week. Kansas City has been an average defense against the position this year.

AJ Barner has four TDs over his last 10 games and was as short as 3.1x in the playoffs last year. Now that the Seahawks can't run the ball, Barner's scoring role is better than it was in the postseason. He leads all Seahawks with an 85% snap share on the season, runs the second-most routes (71%), and has a tush-push role on the goal line and in short yardage, which might be needed this week after the running backs gained one yard on three RZ carries last week. The injuries to Jadarian Price (LP) and George Holani (LP) only help.

Carolina is 10-0 ATS after an outright loss since the start of last season, and Detroit hasn’t earned my respect enough to be a 3.5-point favorite on the road in this matchup. Both Lions wins went down to the wire at home, while their lone road game was a blowout loss. The Panthers rank higher in yards per play and will be able to go shot-for-shot vs a Lions defense that just got lit up by Geno Smith.

It's tough to ignore the chemistry between Michael Penix and Drake London. The wide receiver saw 10 targets last week on a short week and turned that into a monster nine-catch, 194-yard game. It was the seventh game these two have played together and the sixth time London has hit the century mark. He’s averaged 120 receiving yards per game with Penix getting him the ball. The projection for London this week is 86 yards, and the market has been on the move after opening at 72.5. It might be late for that number, but the indoor setting, the potential passing-game script as a road dog, the Saints owning a bottom-five success-rate defense against both the run and pass, and the cluster of linebacker injuries have me reaching for 80+ and his 100+ alternatives at 34%.