Cardinals @ Rams Picks & Props

The projections expect the Rams to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are anticipated by the predictive model to run 67.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop. Kyren Williams has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 8.8% this year, which ranks him in the 76th percentile among RBs. When it comes to air yards, Kyren Williams grades out in the towering 98th percentile among running backs this year, totaling a superb 7.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

The projections expect the Rams to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are anticipated by the predictive model to run 67.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop. Our trusted projections expect Puka Nacua to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (25.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.1% in games he has played). After accruing 75.0 air yards per game last season, Puka Nacua has seen marked improvement this season, currently averaging 95.0 per game.

This week's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are huge -14.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 68.1% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week. The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 65.1% red zone pass rate. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 133.9 offensive plays called: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week. The Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.2 plays per game.