Jaguars @ Colts Picks & Props

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 58.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. In terms of a defense's impact on pace, the Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed the opposing side to play 10th-fastest in football (context-neutralized) this year at 28.39 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Opposing teams have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 5th-most in the league. As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Indianapolis's group of LBs has been awful this year, profiling as the worst in the league.

Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 58.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. In terms of a defense's impact on pace, the Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed the opposing side to play 10th-fastest in football (context-neutralized) this year at 28.39 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Opposing teams have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 5th-most in the league. Brenton Strange has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 13.8% this year, which puts him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 58.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. In terms of a defense's impact on pace, the Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed the opposing side to play 10th-fastest in football (context-neutralized) this year at 28.39 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Opposing teams have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 5th-most in the league. Travis Etienne has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 12.5% this year, which puts him in the 86th percentile among running backs.

Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 58.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. In terms of a defense's impact on pace, the Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed the opposing side to play 10th-fastest in football (context-neutralized) this year at 28.39 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Opposing teams have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 5th-most in the league. Trevor Lawrence has been among the top touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging an exceptional 1.53 per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.