Njoku fits the mold of a player whom Gabriel will target heavily, and while he’s failed to find the end zone this year, he’s recorded no drops, which is a huge deal for him.
The chances of a checkdown to Scott are normally slim, considering the Vikings have checked the ball down just five times all year, but Cleveland does allow checkdowns at the 12th-highest clip as well.
When you put all of that together and consider how explosive Scott has looked in his growing role, there’s a great chance he finds the end zone for a second straight week.
With the Vikings generating the second-highest pressure rate, I’m expecting Gabriel to have multiple opportunities to show off his mobility. He rushed 257 times for 837 yards over his final three collegiate seasons, after all.
Jeudy has recorded 48 or more receiving yards in three of the first four games of the season after averaging 72.3 yards per contest in 2024. Look for Jeudy to remain the No. 1 target in the Cleveland aerial attack on Sunday.
With the Browns turning to rookie Dillon Gabriel for his first career start against a solid Minnesota defense, I’m happy to plug my nose with the Vikings in what projects as a low-scoring game. Of course this is also the middle of a tough highway run in the schedule for Cleveland. The Browns lost 34-10 on the road to the Detroit Lions on Sunday and now head to London before also visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6. Of course, the Vikings have been waiting in Europe following their own Week 4 loss in Dublin.
This is a strong number for a running back who saw all four Cleveland red-zone carries last week, found the end zone, and now gets a rookie QB making his NFL debut—likely leading to more conservative play-calling near the goal line. Last week, Kenneth Gainwell torched this defense for over 130 total yards and two touchdowns. Even Pittsburgh’s RB2 cashed in on two of his three inside-the-5 carries. Over the past two weeks, no other Browns RB besides Judkins has seen a red-zone touch. I make the fair price here around +130 to +135—this current number offers clear value.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Right now, the 6th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Browns.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. While Jerry Jeudy has accounted for 6.2% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Cleveland's passing attack near the end zone in this game at 19.6%.. Jerry Jeudy has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (106.0 per game) than he did last season (95.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less this week (and call more carries) given that they be forced to use backup QB Carson Wentz.. At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in football in the red zone (63.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.. While Justin Jefferson has accounted for 20.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Minnesota's passing attack near the goal line in this week's game at 30.1%.. Justin Jefferson's 73.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the league leaders: 97th percentile for wide receivers.. The Vikings O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Right now, the 6th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Browns.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to run the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (just 52.2 per game on average).. In this game, Carson Wentz is expected by our trusted projection set to have the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 32.7. . Opposing QBs have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in football.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Right now, the 6th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Browns.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Jerry Jeudy has run a route on 91.1% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.. The predictive model expects Jerry Jeudy to earn 7.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Right now, the 6th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Browns.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Right now, the 6th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Browns.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to run the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (just 52.2 per game on average).. Opposing QBs have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in football.. T.J. Hockenson's 24.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season indicates an impressive drop-off in his receiving ability over last season's 44.0 mark.
This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to run the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (just 52.2 per game on average).. Opposing QBs have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: fewest in football.. Justin Jefferson's 64.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season marks a significant drop-off in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 89.0 figure.
The Minnesota Vikings may lean on the pass less this week (and call more carries) given that they be forced to use backup QB Carson Wentz.. The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.0% pass rate.. The Vikings O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.. Jordan Mason's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 79.4% to 100.0%.. The Cleveland Browns pass defense has not been good when opposing RBs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.86 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-most in football.
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