Houston @ Kansas City props

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a giant 8.5-point favorite this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Houston Texans, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.5 per game) this year. This year, the tough Houston Texans defense has conceded a feeble 58.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the lowest rate in the league. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Houston's group of CBs has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a giant 8.5-point favorite this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Houston Texans, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.5 per game) this year. Travis Kelce's 74.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this year signifies a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year's 80.1% rate. This year, the stout Texans defense has given up a measly 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the smallest rate in football.

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness. As it relates to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Texans ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year. Nico Collins's 67.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a meaningful reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 71.9% rate. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Kansas City's group of LBs has been very good this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a giant 8.5-point favorite this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Houston Texans, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.5 per game) this year. This year, the strong Texans defense has surrendered a mere 77.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 4th-best rate in the league. When it comes to defensive ends pass-rushing, Houston's group of DEs has been very good this year, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Texans, who are massive -8.5-point underdogs. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans as the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (33.3 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to total 4.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile among RBs.

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Texans, who are massive -8.5-point underdogs. Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans as the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (33.3 per game) this year. Dalton Schultz has run a route on 77.9% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Cade Stover has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

JuJu Smith-Schuster has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Samaje Perine has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Noah Gray has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Robert Woods has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Isiah Pacheco has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Hollywood Brown has gone over 3.5 in 2 of his last 5 games.

Xavier Hutchinson has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

DeAndre Hopkins has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Diontae Johnson has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

John Metchie has gone over 3.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.