Best NFL Picks Today

This anytime touchdown prop is in play down to -115 because the Eagles surrendered two rushing scores in Week 4, and Tuten’s been a force for the Jaguars. Tuten has an elite 4.02 yards per carry after contact and 109.6 PFF elusive rating while handling 56.3% of the red-zone rushes for Jacksonville, including nine across the past three games.

Play up to 35%. Harold Fannin Jr. leads Cleveland with three touchdowns and has converted all three of his red-zone targets into scores. With a 20% target share and an established role near the goal line, another touchdown is firmly in play.

The Las Vegas Raiders have put up at least 26 points in each of their first four games, and even solid defensive teams like the Kansas City Chiefs haven't slowed them. The New England Patriots can also pound the ball against a Raiders defense allowing 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. With both offenses showing teeth lately, I'm leaning towards the Over at 45.5 points.

Minnesota pairs an NFL-best defense allowing 12.8 points per game with an offense ranking dead last in yards per play. That’s a beautiful recipe for punts and a low-scoring game. The Vikings are 6–1 to the Under in their last seven, with their last three averaging just 25.3 combined points. New Orleans’ running game ranks 28th in yards per carry which will limit their scoring opportunities against this elite defense.

Play up to 45%. Nico Collins has scored three touchdowns in two games and commands 43% of Houston’s red-zone targets when healthy. Tennessee allows touchdowns on 66.7% of opponent red-zone trips, creating another strong scoring opportunity for Stroud’s top target.

I got this at 3.56x and would play it to 3.15x, with a fair price of 3x. Isaiah Likely has a massive 32% target share. He had 12 targets last week and hauled in a team-high seven receptions. Jameis Winston is looking a lot better than he did in Week 1, and the second-most targeted tight end in football is a TD threat in Week 5 against a Commanders defense that is giving up 30.5 points per game. It’s not just volume; it’s volume near the goal line, too. No tight end has more red-zone receptions than Likely, who leads an offense that is struggling to run inside the 20 with just one rushing TD in the red zone. This offense is being undervalued in this matchup, and Likely is the best target at 32% or better.

I got this at 4.3x and would play it to 4x. The Steelers are passing the ball at an above-average rate and used 2-TE sets at a season-high 42% last week. Darnell Washington has seen at least four targets in back-to-back weeks and has 94 yards and a score over that stretch. He also had two red-zone targets in Week 4 and saw just as many targets as Pat Freiermuth. Washington is a human refrigerator who faces a Colts defense coming back from London and ranks as a Top-10 matchup for tight ends. Indy is also allowing 392 total yards per game (31st) and 26 points per game (22nd). The Pittsburgh tight end is a great mid-range TD target at this price for a Week 5 card.

Watson has half of Green Bay's touchdowns so far this season, and he's facing Chicago corner Jaylon Johnson, who has given up a 118.8 passer rating so far this year

This is an incredible price on Kalshi when you consider the rest of the market is closer to 4x rather than his 4.7x price. The Broncos are missing key bodies in the secondary, as Patrick Surtain is doubtful and fellow starting corner Riley Moss is questionable. Helping Harris get those looks against second-string defenders is the health of his receivers. Ladd McConkey can't seem to get healthy, and Quentin Johnston is also questionable. The only players seemingly healthy on this Chargers offense are Justin Herbert and Harris, who had five targets last week, an 83% route share, and 60 receiving yards. Harris also leads all Chargers WRs in red-zone targets. This is one of my favorite TD prices this weekend.

Even the Cardinals can score against the Lions, who are allowing 31.8 points per game and have given up the sixth-most rushing TDs to opposing running backs. Tyler Allgeier had 10 opportunities last week, turning them into 49 yards and a score. Both Allgeier and Jeremiyah Love are getting looks in the red zone, with the backup accounting for eight of their 21 red-zone opportunities this year. However, Love's health is the most important factor this week. The rookie running back hurt his ankle in Week 4, but it wasn't the same ankle he injured in the preseason that kept him from taking any warm-up snaps. Love is expected to be limited in practice this week but should be good to play. Still, if he's limited, Allgeier could poach more red-zone opportunities against the softest defense in football. I got this at 3.4x early in the week and would play it to 3.2x.

Back Wilson to score to -130 because his unrivaled lead role in the Seattle backfield will yield both a high-volume workload and high-value scoring opportunities again this week. In addition to Seattle scoring four rushing touchdowns across its past two meetings with San Fran, Wilson also found the end zone in Week 4 in the go-to role while picking up 3.43 yards after contact per attempt with a solid 100.0 PFF elusive rating.

Backup QBs usually lean on TEs for quick hits and checkdowns and that’s been the case for Huntley during his two stints in Charm City. He threw to his tight ends 16 times over two starts last year and looked to TEs a lot whenever called into action for the Ravens in 2021 and 2022. Andrews boast the fifth highest target share (23.5%) across the position has posted 24, 27, 49 and 49 yards in the opening four games of 2026. His SNF forecasts all sit north of 30 receiving yards with some models pointing to 40 yards from the veteran.

Josh Allen’s passing TD props come at a discount because of how dangerous the Bills QB is as a runner in the red zone. With the tallest total on the board for Buffalo’s trip to L.A., Allen’s TD pass projections are very positive. Those models range from 1.4 to 1.84 with majority at 1.6 or higher. Allen has only one passing TD in the last two games after 2 and 3 strikes in the opening two outings. His passing stats get a boost in rare indoor games and he’ll let if fly on MNF.