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A short week is hard enough when you’re not a 40-year-old QB. Rodgers has little time to rest and ready for the Browns on Thursday. Expect the Steelers to ride the momentum of RB Jaylen Warren, who had 176 total yards in Week 3, as well as continue those shorter shots to the tight ends. Cleveland allowed only 4.9 yards per play to Carolina and was able to get solid pressure and collect three sacks in the win. That won’t leave much time in pocket for Rodgers to hit deeper throws. Deshaun Watson has been up and down the past two games. He faces a revamped Steelers defense playing a high rate of zone. Pittsburgh continues to generate takeaways, with two in the win over Cincinnati and six on the season. Some extended forecasts do show a 43% chance of rain showers in Cleveland for Thursday night with wind gusts up to 22 mph. I’m leaning Under and would like it even more if that wet weather shows up.
Both teams are in the bottom four in the league in yards per play, yards per pass and penalty yardage on offense. But they're top five in time of possession. Expect lots of long drives that end in field goal attempts.
The spread will likely increase as the week goes on, but I’d stick with Arizona until -2.5 and up to 55%. The Cardinals made No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love their lead back this week, which should help production. Meanwhile, the Giants suffered another season-altering injury.
While the Patriots offense has yet to show a sign of life, the defense has been serviceable. New England ranks fifth in total defense and seventh overall in success percentage, which means they should be able to limit Allen enough to go Under the number. We've all seen Maye's struggles so far this season, and with the Bills front seven wreaking havoc through the early parts of the year, I'm leaning on Greg Rosseau and Co. to disrupt Maye enough to get the job done. These two teams have gone Under in two of the last three matchups in this divisional rivalry - points will be tough to come by.
After watching the New England Patriots through three weeks, there's no way I could muster up the courage to invest my hard-earned money on them against the Buffalo Bills. Drake Maye is a complete tirefire; he hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 1 and already has six interceptions to his name. The Patriots are scoring just 12 points per game, good for last in the NFL, and rank 22nd in total offense. Suffice to say, things haven't gone as planned early on in the year. Meanwhile, the Bills are registering over 400 yards per game, and Josh Allen is the overwhelming favorite for NFL MVP odds. Buffalo is also coming off their best defensive performance of the season against the Los Angeles Chargers and is a perfect 3-0 against the spread.
Both teams have looked solid against the run, so the stage is set for Burrow and Trevor Lawrence to air it out on Sunday – and that game plan plays to both teams’ strengths.
The numbers back that up. The Bengals are averaging 26.7 PPG, while the Jaguars sit at 27.3 PPG, and the Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these squads.
A healthy Joe Burrow and the home edge at Paycor Stadium has been a winning formula for the Bengals - to the tune of a 24-17 SU career record - and I like the hosts to win by at least a field goal in this battle of AFC playoff contenders.
Cincinnati has covered the spread in its past four matchups against the Jaguars, and I'm not overreacting to the Week 3 results, where Jacksonville got a big assist from an out-of-sorts Drake Maye.
Miami just lost its biggest weapon in Achane, leaving Malik Willis to face this insane Vikings defense with little help. Minnesota's blitz-hefty schemes are humming and face a Dolphins offensive line that gave up nine sacks in the opening two games. Willis ranks among the worst QBs when blitzed at PFF. Justin Jefferson's injury status doesn't worry me as much in Week 4. If he does play, this spread jumps to key number of -10 and beyond.
Even against a strong Denver defense, the 49ers have the explosiveness to create scoring opportunities. It helps that they own the best red-zone offense in football - scoring 90% of their trips inside the 20. Denver shouldn't need a huge offensive performance to get this game over the number, either. Nix showed flashes on Sunday Night Football in his 16-0 comeback victory, and is in a groove after two straight wins.
The San Francisco 49ers have been remarkably efficient on offense, with Brock Purdy leading a unit that generates an NFL-best 7.35 yards per play while also ranking first with 0.32 EPA per play. While injuries are beginning to pile up, the 49ers received encouraging news regarding Mike Evans on Monday. His presence will provide a significant boost against a stingy Denver Broncos defense. My biggest concern remains Bo Nix, who won't have the luxury of overcoming another slow start against this San Francisco team. The 49ers also boast a top-five red-zone defense, giving me plenty of confidence in their ability to cover.
Pair a couple of injury-riddled defenses with two capable offenses, and there are going to be points on the board in this primetime Sunday Night Football bout. Detroit is averaging 31 points per game while ranking third in offensive success rate, and while Carolina hasn’t been quite as efficient, the Panthers have still hung 29.7 points per game. In particular, I value Panthers QB Bryce Young ranking eighth in adjusted EPA per play to go with a career-high 7.8 yards per attempt and 10.5 aDoT though three weeks.
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For every matchup in an NFL season, our NFL computer produces selections for a variety of different betting angles. Our computer picks are based on a proprietary algorithm that values each team in the current week to produce moneyline, spread, and point total selections.
The table above, below the game picks, tracks our NFL computer's results over the last 100 games, outlining the record and profit for selections, based on $100 unit size. We track the profit based on both opening and closing lines for every matchup.
The easiest way to utilize our computer picks is to simply follow our selections for every matchup, what you'd call ailing the computer." But there are other ways to utilize our NFL computer picks, as well.
You can use our NFL computer as a jumping-off point to do more research into specific lines, cross-referencing with expert picks, which can be found above the selections for some matchups, recent NFL betting trends, and more.
As well, you can gauge the confidence of the matchup. The larger the projected score, the more confident the computer is in a specific pick.
Or, if you want to implement a system, betting only on underdogs, for example, you can look for matchups in which our computer likes the underdog to inform which picks you're going to hone in on for a given week.
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NFL moneyline picks are the simplest way to get in on the NFL action. All you have to do is simply bet on which team you think will win the game.
For moneyline picks, the favorite is represented with a minus sign (-) in front of the odds, while the underdog has a plus (+). However, you don't get the same profit for picking an underdog compared to a favorite. If the favored team is -120, a $100 bet on them would pay out $80 in profit and $180 total, if they win the game. The underdog winning at +150 would pay out a $150 profit, $250 total.
We have a complete breakdown of how to read NFL moneyline odds for these NFL computer picks.
While moneyline picks are the simplest, picking NFL games against the spread is probably the most common wager for regular NFL bettors.
To bet an NFL spread, you wager on whether a team will win by a certain number of points or more or if they'll lose by fewer points than the spread. For example, if the spread is -6.5 for the New England Patriots, you would win the bet if they win the game by 7 points or more. Or if a team is +6.5, you're betting on if they'll win outright or lose by fewer than 6.5 points.
There is a correlation between moneyline odds and the spread, as books set these lines based on the same information.
You can read more about NFL spreads here.
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As opposed to taking a side, in total or Over/Under betting, you wager on whether both NFL teams will combine for a final score of more than (Over) or less than (Under) the total number of points set by oddsmakers.
The computer picks, and your handicapping of totals is more about how you think both teams will score points, not which team has the edge to win.
Our NFL Computer Picks are a great way to place weekly football wagers, but you should also consider handicapping games yourself using some of our other tools. If you're looking to bet on long-term futures this football season, check out some of our other dedicated pages:
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