Indianapolis @ Jacksonville props

With a 54.2% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL has been the Indianapolis Colts. The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a measly 48.0 per game on average). Kylen Granson checks in as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among TEs, catching a mere 63.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 5th percentile. Since the start of last season, the formidable Jaguars defense has yielded a puny 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the lowest rate in the league.

The projections expect the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 62.1% pass rate. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Travis Etienne to accrue 4.4 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs. Travis Etienne slots into the 91st percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) with a massive 20.3 figure this year. When talking about pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Jaguars ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are anticipated by the projection model to call 65.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (36.8 per game) this year. The model projects Trey Sermon to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack in this contest (6.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (1.1% in games he has played). The Colts offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board. The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties project as the worst group of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

The projections expect the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 62.1% pass rate. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Christian Kirk to accrue 7.9 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 88th percentile among wideouts. Christian Kirk has been a key part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 23.6% this year, which places him in the 83rd percentile among WRs. The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (74%) vs. wide receivers this year (74.0%).

The projections expect the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 62.1% pass rate. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. In this contest, Brenton Strange is anticipated by our trusted projection set to place in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.4 targets. Brenton Strange's 28.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 4.5. This year, the shaky Colts pass defense has conceded a whopping 87.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-largest rate in the NFL.

Tyler Goodson has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Josh Downs has gone over 4.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Gabe Davis has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Brian Thomas has gone over 4.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Alec Pierce has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.