Best NFL Picks Today

Cleveland enters the short week with major issues on the offensive line. Poor pass protection is amplified by injuries, with the Browns potentially down center Elgton Jenkins and guard Teven Jenkins. Watson faces a new-look Pittsburgh defense under Patrick Graham, but the Steelers’ pass pressure and ball-hawking tendencies remain. They sit 15th in pressure rate with eight sacks and have three interceptions already (FYI: top corner Joey Porter Jr. could be back for TNF). All that chaos in a collapsing pocket pushes Watson to hurry throws into the teeth of this Steelers zone coverage. Mix in the potential for some wet weather on Thursday and I see Watson throwing some meatball subs (as Tom Brady would say). Interception probabilities range from 40% to one model calling for an INT. My forecast boiled down to a 70% shot that Pittsburgh picked off Watson in Week 4, considering game script has the underdog Cleveland pressing the passing from behind.

Indianapolis tight end Tyler Warren scored in the Colts’ first two games of the season and has a solid shot at finding the end zone in Hotspur Stadium on Sunday. Warren will be a popular passing target for Jones, given Washington’s aggressive pass rush. The Commanders are dialing up the blitz at the fourth highest rate, leaving tight ends plenty of room to operate underneath the coverage for quick releases. Washington has allowed the seventh most yards to TEs but more notably, has given up five touchdowns to the position in only three games. Adding to those issues is an illness to SS Nick Cross, who didn’t make the trip to London. Warren has caught all three balls thrown his way inside the red zone, two of which ended in six points. Touchdown projections for Warren sit between 32% and 50%, with most models at 40%+.

The New York Giants had a short week to figure out just what do to without Jaxson Dart at quarterback in Week 3. The victory over Tennessee wasn’t pretty – and neither was the weather in New Jersey – but the G-Men gutted it out and should be commended. However, it feels like they’re being discounted hosting the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4. This offense struggled last Sunday, in part to the abrupt swap at QB to Jameis Winston but also due to the rain and wind at MetLife Stadium. Winston has now had two weeks of first-team reps and the Giants hold a schedule edge at home in Week 4, with a clean forecast on tap. The Cardinals are playing back-to-back road games and their third away game in four weeks, traveling east for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (11 a.m. MT). 

I'm buying Khalil Shakir at 3.55x with a fair price of 3.2x. Trevor Lawrence might not have had a huge game last week against the Patriots, but he was perfect in the red zone, going 5-for-5 with three passing TDs, all coming to his wide receivers. Josh Allen has been quite greedy in the red zone with eight carries for five TDs and a 61% run rate inside the 20. With Allen's health already showing some concern after he picked up a knee injury late in Week 3, and turnovers being an issue, some more passing in tight could go a long way in the Bills' play calling. This season, Shakir has the most red-zone targets of all the Buffalo pass catchers and played the most snaps among the wide receivers in Week 3 at 71%. He hasn't looked great this year, but the snaps, red-zone usage, and hopeful change in RZ philosophy have me reaching here at this long price when DJ Moore is too short at 2.5x.

The Jets defense struggled against a more dynamic offense from Detroit in Week 3, giving up 381 yards and 24 first downs while ranking 29th in EPA allowed per play. Former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and his play calling is a problem, even with Case Keenum under center. Chicago spread the ball around to eight different receivers while also mixing in unique run calls. With confidence in the QB3 rising, expect Johnson to take the training wheels off in Week 4.

Both teams have looked solid against the run, so the stage is set for Burrow and Trevor Lawrence to air it out on Sunday – and that game plan plays to both teams’ strengths.

The numbers back that up. The Bengals are averaging 26.7 PPG, while the Jaguars sit at 27.3 PPG, and the Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these squads.

Miami just lost its biggest weapon in Achane, leaving Malik Willis to face this insane Vikings defense with little help. Minnesota's blitz-hefty schemes are humming and face a Dolphins offensive line that gave up nine sacks in the opening two games. Willis ranks among the worst QBs when blitzed at PFF. Justin Jefferson's injury status doesn't worry me as much in Week 4. If he does play, this spread jumps to key number of -10 and beyond.

The Niners have fattened up on cupcake opponents the past two weeks, facing Arizona and Miami, and honestly have been doing so since their winning streak to end 2025. The Broncos are a step up in competition, especially if the offensive progress made in the second half of Week 3 sticks. Denver was stuck in mud for its first 150 minutes of football but broke out for 30 points in the final two frames in the comeback win over the Rams Sunday. The vile electrical substation had a huge Week 3, claiming the souls of some of San Francisco’s top talents on both sides of the ball. Denver wins the battle in the trenches in Week 4.

Detroit is willing to win shootouts, as we’ve seen, and new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is finding his groove. Quarterback Jared Goff spread the ball around to eight different options on Sunday, and it woke up the rest of the weapons, beyond Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions owned the fourth-highest EPA per play in Week 3 and aren’t leaving points on the table, boasting the sixth-highest TD rate inside the red zone to start the year. Carolina is short in the secondary and dead last in red zone defense, giving up a TD on almost 86% of their opponents' trips inside the 20-yard line. Detroit does the "lion's share" of the scoring to get this Sunday night game and gets Over its team total.

New Orleans enters Week 4 among the worst run stop units in the land. The Falcons’ running back room of Robinson & Robinson (Bijan and Brian) will chew up gains on the ground and dominate possession, limiting NOLA’s time with the football. When Saints do get a crack at it, they’ll be looking to press the pass against what is shaping up as one of the better secondaries in the NFL. Atlanta owns the third lowest success rate per dropback allowed and ranks Top 10 in several key pass defense analytics. Tyler Shough is playing off his ass right now, sitting second in total passing yards (but not a darling in the advanced stats), which means regression is about to go marching in for the Saints QB.