Best NFL Picks Today

Find the best NFL bets today - Sept. 29, 2026. Free expert and computer picks for every NFL game.

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Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Oct 01 • 8:15 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

PIT

18.87 @ 17.67

CLE

Steelers vs Browns · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
PIT PIT	18.87	-2.5 -112 FanDuel	o37.5 -115 FanDuel	-142 FanDuel
CLE CLE	17.67	+2.5 +100 bet365	u38.5 -109 Caesars	+130 theScore Bet

Top Projection Aaron Rodgers o1.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

o0.5-140

See all EV Projections

Indianapolis @ Washington

Oct 04 • 9:30 AM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

IND

23.72 @ 20.19

WAS

Colts vs Commanders · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
IND IND	23.72	+0.0 -195 BetRivers	o46.5 -115 theScore Bet	-180 DraftKings
WAS WAS	20.19	+0.0 +150 BetRivers	u47.5 -115 bet365	+175 theScore Bet

Top Projection Stefon Diggs o42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

o40.5-125

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Arizona @ N.Y. Giants

Oct 04 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

ARI

20.99 @ 19.42

NYG

Cardinals vs Giants · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
ARI ARI	20.99	+1.5 -124 FanDuel	o43.5 -115 FanDuel	-110 Caesars
NYG NYG	19.42	-1.5 +102 FanDuel	u44.5 -110 bet365	+105 theScore Bet

Top Projection Jeremiyah Love o54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

o54.5-115

See all EV Projections

New England @ Buffalo

Oct 04 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

22.17 @ 25.35

BUF

Patriots vs Bills · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
NE NE	22.17	+6.5 +100 theScore Bet	o48.0 -110 Hard Rock Bet	+270 BetMGM
BUF BUF	25.35	-6.5 -115 bet365	u48.5 -110 bet365	-298 DraftKings

N.Y. Jets @ Chicago

Oct 04 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

NYJ

19.29 @ 21.22

CHI

Jets vs Bears · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
NYJ NYJ	19.29	+3.5 -118 DraftKings	o42.5 -115 bet365	+150 Hard Rock Bet
CHI CHI	21.22	-3.5 +100 bet365	u43.5 -123 Caesars	-170 bet365

Dallas @ Houston

Oct 04 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

DAL

23.22 @ 28.25

HOU

Cowboys vs Texans · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
DAL DAL	23.22	+2.5 -102 DraftKings	o47.5 -108 BetRivers	+125 bet365
HOU HOU	28.25	-2.5 -110 FanDuel	u48.5 -115 theScore Bet	-134 FanDuel

L.A. Rams @ Philadelphia

Oct 04 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

23.08 @ 20.99

PHI

Rams vs Eagles · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
LA LA	23.08	-2.5 -125 BetRivers	o43.5 -105 theScore Bet	-159 Caesars
PHI PHI	20.99	+2.5 +105 theScore Bet	u44.5 -110 FanDuel	+140 Fanatics Sportsbook

Top Projection Matthew Stafford u252.5 Passing Yards (-115)

u253.5-115

See all EV Projections

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay

Oct 04 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

23.04 @ 18.29

Packers vs Buccaneers · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
GB GB	23.04	-3.5 -115 Fanatics Sportsbook	o39.5 -105 theScore Bet	-192 DraftKings
TB TB	18.29	+3.5 -104 BetRivers	u40.0 -115 Fanatics Sportsbook	+170 theScore Bet

Top Projection Jordan Love u247.5 Passing Yards (-115)

u247.5-115

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Tennessee @ Baltimore

Oct 04 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

TEN

15.32 @ 26.46

BAL

Titans vs Ravens · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
TEN TEN	15.32	+11.5 -110 bet365	o43.5 -108 BetMGM	+550 theScore Bet
BAL BAL	26.46	-11.5 -106 Caesars	u43.5 -105 theScore Bet	-649 BetMGM

Jacksonville @ Cincinnati

Oct 04 • 1:00 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

JAC

22.73 @ 26.43

CIN

Jaguars vs Bengals · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
JAC JAC	22.73	+2.5 -103 Caesars	o51.0 -110 Fanatics Sportsbook	+120 bet365
CIN CIN	26.43	-2.5 -108 FanDuel	u51.5 -112 BetRivers	-132 FanDuel

Top Projection Trevor Lawrence u264.5 Passing Yards (-114)

u265.5-120

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Miami @ Minnesota

Oct 04 • 4:05 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

MIA

15.08 @ 26.63

MIN

Dolphins vs Vikings · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
MIA MIA	15.08	+11.5 -110 Hard Rock Bet	o38.5 -110 bet365	+525 DraftKings
MIN MIN	26.63	-11.5 -105 bet365	u39.5 -113 BetRivers	-620 FanDuel

Kansas City @ Las Vegas

Oct 04 • 4:25 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

27.01 @ 22.27

Chiefs vs Raiders · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
KC KC	27.01	-4.5 -105 theScore Bet	o47.5 -110 BetMGM	-200 theScore Bet
LV LV	22.27	+4.5 -108 BetRivers	u48.5 -115 theScore Bet	+185 bet365

Top Projection Patrick Mahomes o238.5 Passing Yards (-115)

o235.5-120

See all EV Projections

L.A. Chargers @ Seattle

Oct 04 • 4:25 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

LAC

19.07 @ 25.33

SEA

Chargers vs Seahawks · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
LAC LAC	19.07	+7.5 -120 Fanatics Sportsbook	o42.5 -115 bet365	+280 DraftKings
SEA SEA	25.33	-7.5 +105 Hard Rock Bet	u43.5 -114 FanDuel	-334 Caesars

Denver @ San Francisco

Oct 04 • 4:25 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

DEN

24.07 @ 25.10

Broncos vs 49ers · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
DEN DEN	24.07	+3.5 -132 Caesars	o46.5 -108 Caesars	+130 DraftKings
SF SF	25.10	-3.5 -115 Caesars	u47.0 -115 Fanatics Sportsbook	-142 FanDuel

Detroit @ Carolina

Oct 04 • 8:20 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

DET

26.08 @ 22.94

CAR

Lions vs Panthers · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
DET DET	26.08	+0.0 -195 BetRivers	o50.5 -105 bet365	-180 DraftKings
CAR CAR	22.94	+0.0 +150 BetRivers	u50.5 -108 DraftKings	+164 Caesars

Top Projection Tetairoa McMillan o67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

o65.5-120

See all EV Projections

Atlanta @ New Orleans

Oct 05 • 8:15 PM ET

Matchup Stats

Computer PicksTrends

Predicted Score

ATL

23.89 @ 23.57

Falcons vs Saints · Prediction & Game Odds
Team	Predicted Score	Spread	Total	ML
ATL ATL	23.89	+3.5 -132 Caesars	o47.5 -115 FanDuel	+130 bet365
NO NO	23.57	-3.5 -114 Caesars	u48.5 -108 DraftKings	-145 theScore Bet

PIT @

CLE Thu, Oct 1 • 8:15 PM ET

Spread

PIT -2.5 (-116)

Best Odds

-2.5 -112

Pick made: 5 hours ago

-2.5 -118

-2.5 -120

-2.5 -112

-2.5 -120

-2.5 -117

-2.5 -114

-2.5 -120

-2.5 -115

It might surprise you to hear that Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy have been great playing on a short week! Rodgers is 13-6 straight up and 13-5-1 against the spread in Thursday starts, while McCarthy’s Cowboys went 7-3 SU on Thursdays. More recently, Rodgers has thrown nine touchdowns against two interceptions in his three Thursday appearances since 2024. Pittsburgh is coming off its best offensive game of the season against Cincinnati. Cleveland has won two straight, but a closer look at the box scores shows the Browns lost the yards-per-play battle in both.

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Total

u38.5 (-110)

Best Odds

u38.5 -109

Pick made: yesterday

u38.0 -108

u38.5 -110

u38.5 -115

u37.5 -111

u38.5 -110

u38.0 -113

u38.5 -109

u38.5 -115

u38.0 -110

A short week is hard enough when you’re not a 40-year-old QB. Rodgers has little time to rest and ready for the Browns on Thursday. Expect the Steelers to ride the momentum of RB Jaylen Warren, who had 176 total yards in Week 3, as well as continue those shorter shots to the tight ends. Cleveland allowed only 4.9 yards per play to Carolina and was able to get solid pressure and collect three sacks in the win. That won’t leave much time in pocket for Rodgers to hit deeper throws. Deshaun Watson has been up and down the past two games. He faces a revamped Steelers defense playing a high rate of zone. Pittsburgh continues to generate takeaways, with two in the win over Cincinnati and six on the season. Some extended forecasts do show a 43% chance of rain showers in Cleveland for Thursday night with wind gusts up to 22 mph. I’m leaning Under and would like it even more if that wet weather shows up.

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IND @

WAS Sun, Oct 4 • 9:30 AM ET

Rushing Yards

Jacory Croskey-Merritt o51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 63.35 (Over)

Best Odds

o51.5 -115

Pick made: 43 seconds ago

EV Model Rating

o51.5 -115

o55.5 -110

o54.5 -114

o55.5 -110

o55.5 -115

o54.5 -115

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Commanders to run on 44.9% of their downs: the 9th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.

-115 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs o41.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 53.78 (Over)

Best Odds

o40.5 -125

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o44.5 -115

o41.5 -115

o41.5 -114

o40.5 -125

o41.5 -118

o41.5 -115

o42.5 -110

o41.5 -115

The Washington Commanders may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota.. At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.. The predictive model expects Stefon Diggs to garner 7.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.

-125 at Fanatics Sportsbook

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ARI @

NYG Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET

Total

u44.5 (-120)

Best Odds

u44.5 -110

Pick made: yesterday

u44.5 -112

u44.5 -110

u44.5 -112

u43.5 -105

u44.5 -115

u44.0 -107

u44.5 -115

Both teams are in the bottom four in the league in yards per play, yards per pass and penalty yardage on offense. But they're top five in time of possession. Expect lots of long drives that end in field goal attempts.

Spread

ARI -1.5 (-103)

Best Odds

+1.5 -124

Pick made: yesterday

-1.5 -105

-1.5 -102

+1.5 -124

-1.5 -105

-1.5 +100

-1.5 -120

-1.5 -105

The spread will likely increase as the week goes on, but I’d stick with Arizona until -2.5 and up to 55%. The Cardinals made No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love their lead back this week, which should help production. Meanwhile, the Giants suffered another season-altering injury.

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NE @

BUF Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET

Total

u48.5 (-120)

Best Odds

u48.5 -110

Pick made: 22 hours ago

u48.5 -110

u48.5 -112

u48.5 -110

u48.0 -110

While the Patriots offense has yet to show a sign of life, the defense has been serviceable. New England ranks fifth in total defense and seventh overall in success percentage, which means they should be able to limit Allen enough to go Under the number. We've all seen Maye's struggles so far this season, and with the Bills front seven wreaking havoc through the early parts of the year, I'm leaning on Greg Rosseau and Co. to disrupt Maye enough to get the job done. These two teams have gone Under in two of the last three matchups in this divisional rivalry - points will be tough to come by.

Spread

BUF -6.5 (-120)

Best Odds

-6.5 -115

Pick made: 23 hours ago

-6.5 -118

-6.5 -115

-6.5 -123

-6.5 -118

-6.5 -115

-6.5 -120

-6.5 -117

-6.5 -120

-6.5 -115

After watching the New England Patriots through three weeks, there's no way I could muster up the courage to invest my hard-earned money on them against the Buffalo Bills. Drake Maye is a complete tirefire; he hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 1 and already has six interceptions to his name. The Patriots are scoring just 12 points per game, good for last in the NFL, and rank 22nd in total offense. Suffice to say, things haven't gone as planned early on in the year. Meanwhile, the Bills are registering over 400 yards per game, and Josh Allen is the overwhelming favorite for NFL MVP odds. Buffalo is also coming off their best defensive performance of the season against the Los Angeles Chargers and is a perfect 3-0 against the spread.

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NYJ @

CHI Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET

Game Prop

o23.5 Team Total (-107)

Best Odds

o19.5 +100

Pick made: 3 hours ago

o19.5 +100

o19.5 -125

o19.5 -128

o20.5 +105

o19.5 -129

o19.5 -133

o19.5 -130

The Jets defense struggled against a more dynamic offense from Detroit in Week 3, giving up 381 yards and 24 first downs while ranking 29th in EPA allowed per play. Former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and his play calling is a problem, even with Case Keenum under center. Chicago spread the ball around to eight different receivers while also mixing in unique run calls. With confidence in the QB3 rising, expect Johnson to take the training wheels off in Week 4.

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LA @

PHI Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET

Passing Yards

Matthew Stafford u252.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 229.75 (Under)

Best Odds

u253.5 -115

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u252.5 -114

u252.5 -115

u253.5 -115

The projections expect the Rams to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.. Matthew Stafford's 59.0% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a noteable regression in his throwing precision over last season's 65.9% rate.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (65.3% Adjusted Completion%).. The Eagles pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 7.15 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-fewest in football.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Philadelphia's collection of CBs has been fantastic since the start of last season, projecting as the 8th-best in the NFL.

-115 at Hard Rock Bet

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GB @

TB Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET

Passing Yards

Jordan Love u247.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 239.82 (Under)

Best Odds

u247.5 -115

Pick made: 4 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u247.5 -115

A rushing game script is implied by the Packers being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.. The predictive model expects the Packers to call the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Green Bay Packers have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 55.2 plays per game.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.. Jordan Love's 53.7% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a noteworthy decline in his throwing precision over last year's 67.1% mark.

-115 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Christian Watson o62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 67.36 (Over)

Best Odds

o62.5 -115

Pick made: 4 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o62.5 -115

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Packers to pass on 60.7% of their chances: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.. Christian Watson's 84.4% Route Participation Rate this year signifies an impressive growth in his pass attack volume over last year's 71.0% figure.. This week, Christian Watson is anticipated by the projections to rank in the 90th percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.1 targets.. Christian Watson has put up a whopping 101.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among wideouts.. With a remarkable 66.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian Watson has been among the leading pass-catching WRs in the league.

-115 at bet365

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JAC @

CIN Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET

Total

o51.5 (+101)

Best Odds

o51.0 -110

Pick made: 23 hours ago

o51.0 -112

o51.5 -105

o51.5 -102

o51.5 -105

o51.0 -110

o51.5 -109

o51.5 -107

o51.5 -105

o51.0 -110

Both teams have looked solid against the run, so the stage is set for Burrow and Trevor Lawrence to air it out on Sunday – and that game plan plays to both teams’ strengths.

The numbers back that up. The Bengals are averaging 26.7 PPG, while the Jaguars sit at 27.3 PPG, and the Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these squads.

Spread

CIN -2.5 (-116)

Best Odds

-2.5 -108

Pick made: 23 hours ago

-2.5 -112

-2.5 -115

-2.5 -108

-2.5 -115

-2.5 -110

-2.5 -118

-2.5 -110

-2.5 -115

A healthy Joe Burrow and the home edge at Paycor Stadium has been a winning formula for the Bengals - to the tune of a 24-17 SU career record - and I like the hosts to win by at least a field goal in this battle of AFC playoff contenders.

Cincinnati has covered the spread in its past four matchups against the Jaguars, and I'm not overreacting to the Week 3 results, where Jacksonville got a big assist from an out-of-sorts Drake Maye.

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MIA @

MIN Sun, Oct 4 • 4:05 PM ET

Spread

MIN -9.5 (-120)

Best Odds

-11.5 -105

Pick made: yesterday

-11.5 -110

-11.5 -105

-10.5 -120

-10.5 -115

-11.5 -105

-11.5 -107

-11.5 -115

-11.5 -105

-11.5 -110

Miami just lost its biggest weapon in Achane, leaving Malik Willis to face this insane Vikings defense with little help. Minnesota's blitz-hefty schemes are humming and face a Dolphins offensive line that gave up nine sacks in the opening two games. Willis ranks among the worst QBs when blitzed at PFF. Justin Jefferson's injury status doesn't worry me as much in Week 4. If he does play, this spread jumps to key number of -10 and beyond.

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KC @

LV Sun, Oct 4 • 4:25 PM ET

Anytime Touchdown

Kenneth Walker III Score a Touchdown (Yes: -175)

Projection 0.83 (Yes)

Best Odds

-165

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

-175

-190

-180

-175

-165

-179

-175

The model projects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see 128.8 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 58.4 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The predictive model expects Kenneth Walker III to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game near the end zone in this week's game (71.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (88.2% in games he has played).

-165 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes o238.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 261 (Over)

Best Odds

o235.5 -120

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o241.5 -111

o236.5 -114

o235.5 -120

o237.5 -115

o240.5 -105

o238.5 -115

The model projects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see 128.8 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 58.4 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an excellent record of 266.0 adjusted passing yards per game (100th percentile), Patrick Mahomes stands among the leading quarterbacks in football since the start of last season.

-120 at Fanatics Sportsbook

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DEN @

SF Sun, Oct 4 • 4:25 PM ET

Total

o46.5 (-108)

Best Odds

o46.5 -108

Pick made: 19 hours ago

o46.5 -110

o46.5 -112

o46.5 -110

o47.0 -105

o46.5 -109

o46.5 -108

o46.5 -115

o46.5 -110

Even against a strong Denver defense, the 49ers have the explosiveness to create scoring opportunities. It helps that they own the best red-zone offense in football - scoring 90% of their trips inside the 20. Denver shouldn't need a huge offensive performance to get this game over the number, either. Nix showed flashes on Sunday Night Football in his 16-0 comeback victory, and is in a groove after two straight wins.

Read Full Analysis

Spread

SF -2.5 (-116)

Best Odds

-3.5 -115

Pick made: 20 hours ago

-2.5 -118

-2.5 -120

-2.5 -131

-2.5 -115

-2.5 -120

-3.5 -115

-2.5 -120

The San Francisco 49ers have been remarkably efficient on offense, with Brock Purdy leading a unit that generates an NFL-best 7.35 yards per play while also ranking first with 0.32 EPA per play. While injuries are beginning to pile up, the 49ers received encouraging news regarding Mike Evans on Monday. His presence will provide a significant boost against a stingy Denver Broncos defense. My biggest concern remains Bo Nix, who won't have the luxury of overcoming another slow start against this San Francisco team. The 49ers also boast a top-five red-zone defense, giving me plenty of confidence in their ability to cover.

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DET @

CAR Sun, Oct 4 • 8:20 PM ET

Game Prop

o27.5 Team Total (-110)

Best Odds

o20.5 -120

Pick made: an hour ago

o20.5 -120

o23.5 -105

o23.5 -106

o22.5 -135

o23.5 -103

o22.5 -127

o23.5 -105

Detroit is willing to win shootouts, as we’ve seen, and new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is finding his groove. Quarterback Jared Goff spread the ball around to eight different options on Sunday, and it woke up the rest of the weapons, beyond Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions owned the fourth-highest EPA per play in Week 3 and aren’t leaving points on the table, boasting the sixth-highest TD rate inside the red zone to start the year. Carolina is short in the secondary and dead last in red zone defense, giving up a TD on almost 86% of their opponents' trips inside the 20-yard line. Detroit does the "lion's share" of the scoring to get this Sunday night game and gets Over its team total.

Total

o50.5 (-105)

Best Odds

o50.0 -112

Pick made: yesterday

o50.5 -108

o50.5 -105

o50.5 -112

o50.5 -105

o50.5 -110

o50.0 -112

o50.5 -106

o50.5 -105

o50.5 -110

Pair a couple of injury-riddled defenses with two capable offenses, and there are going to be points on the board in this primetime Sunday Night Football bout. Detroit is averaging 31 points per game while ranking third in offensive success rate, and while Carolina hasn’t been quite as efficient, the Panthers have still hung 29.7 points per game. In particular, I value Panthers QB Bryce Young ranking eighth in adjusted EPA per play to go with a career-high 7.8 yards per attempt and 10.5 aDoT though three weeks.

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For every matchup in an NFL season, our NFL computer produces selections for a variety of different betting angles. Our computer picks are based on a proprietary algorithm that values each team in the current week to produce moneyline, spread, and point total selections.

The table above, below the game picks, tracks our NFL computer's results over the last 100 games, outlining the record and profit for selections, based on $100 unit size. We track the profit based on both opening and closing lines for every matchup.

How to Use NFL Computer Picks

The easiest way to utilize our computer picks is to simply follow our selections for every matchup, what you'd call ailing the computer." But there are other ways to utilize our NFL computer picks, as well.

You can use our NFL computer as a jumping-off point to do more research into specific lines, cross-referencing with expert picks, which can be found above the selections for some matchups, recent NFL betting trends, and more.

As well, you can gauge the confidence of the matchup. The larger the projected score, the more confident the computer is in a specific pick.

Or, if you want to implement a system, betting only on underdogs, for example, you can look for matchups in which our computer likes the underdog to inform which picks you're going to hone in on for a given week.

We have these computer picks for every sport you're looking to wager on, as well:

Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark

Moneyline

NFL moneyline picks are the simplest way to get in on the NFL action. All you have to do is simply bet on which team you think will win the game.

For moneyline picks, the favorite is represented with a minus sign (-) in front of the odds, while the underdog has a plus (+). However, you don't get the same profit for picking an underdog compared to a favorite. If the favored team is -120, a $100 bet on them would pay out $80 in profit and $180 total, if they win the game. The underdog winning at +150 would pay out a $150 profit, $250 total.

We have a complete breakdown of how to read NFL moneyline odds for these NFL computer picks.

Spread

While moneyline picks are the simplest, picking NFL games against the spread is probably the most common wager for regular NFL bettors.

To bet an NFL spread, you wager on whether a team will win by a certain number of points or more or if they'll lose by fewer points than the spread. For example, if the spread is -6.5 for the New England Patriots, you would win the bet if they win the game by 7 points or more. Or if a team is +6.5, you're betting on if they'll win outright or lose by fewer than 6.5 points.

There is a correlation between moneyline odds and the spread, as books set these lines based on the same information.

You can read more about NFL spreads here.

Totals (Over/Under)

If you aren’t entirely sold on which NFL team will win or cover in an NFL game, you can still use our NFL computer picks to bet on the point total.

As opposed to taking a side, in total or Over/Under betting, you wager on whether both NFL teams will combine for a final score of more than (Over) or less than (Under) the total number of points set by oddsmakers.

The computer picks, and your handicapping of totals is more about how you think both teams will score points, not which team has the edge to win.

More NFL Picks & Betting Tools

Our NFL Computer Picks are a great way to place weekly football wagers, but you should also consider handicapping games yourself using some of our other tools. If you're looking to bet on long-term futures this football season, check out some of our other dedicated pages:

Best Football Betting Sites

If you’re ready to bet on NFL picks, you first need to find the right sportsbook. Our NFL betting sites guide offers secure banking, the best odds, bonuses, and reliable customer service options for you.

NFL Free Picks FAQs

When do we release our NFL picks?

Covers NFL picks are released two to three days before each game on the NFL schedule.

What kinds of NFL picks do we make?

Covers provides free NFL picks covering many markets, including point spreads, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.