Best NFL Picks Today

Give me the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football as a 5.5-point favorite, as I price them closer to a 6.5-point favorite in this matchup. Sure, Michael Penix Jr. is back, which means Falcons fans don't have to suffer through Cooper Rush anymore, but this is Penix's first game back in 10 months following major knee surgery, and he'll be facing a tough road environment. The market is moving toward the Falcons, as the Packers were initially 7-point favorites following their Week 2 overtime victory over the New York Jets. But with the line dropping to Packers -5.5, there's a buy opportunity here, as I make the Packers closer to -6.5 and believe the opening line was closer to the correct number.

This is undoubtedly one of my best bets for Week 3. We're seeing the biggest spread on the slate, and for good reason; the Fins enter this game with the largest point differential in the AFC (-36) and the fourth-worst red-zone defense in football. Expect Patrick Mahomes and Co. to play with their food and dominate.

This Judkins Over is in play to 46.5 because Carolina has allowed the highest yards per carry (6.31) to opposing running backs while ranking 29th in run defense DVOA through two weeks. The Cleveland rusher also cleared this total in nine of 14 games last season, and he has handled 75% of running back carries with a 66% snap share to start 2026. Judkins’ go-to role positions him to scamper well Over this number in the soft Week 3 matchup.

Grabbing this -5.5 line before Monday Night Football because I’m expecting the Giants to hang with the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, and New York will be an even larger home favorite over Tennessee by Sunday afternoon. The Titans were only on offense for 23:35 against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, and QB Cam Ward has thrown for just 6.2 yards per attempt through two weeks. Tennessee also hits the highway for the first time in 2026, and the new-look G-Men put on an offensive clinic in their season opener at MetLife Stadium. 

I won’t discount the Jaguars too much for having a tough day in Denver. Jacksonville gets to come home for what will be its only outing in Duval County until Week 8. The Patriots looked much better than they were against the corpse of Aaron Rodgers in Week 2. New England managed just 20 points – seven coming from a defensive score – went 4-for-12 on third down and 0 for 1 in the red zone. This Jaguars defense still did a lot right against the Broncos, standing tall on third downs and inside the red zone. I’ll take the home side short of the key number of three.

Dropping games to Arizona and Las Vegas – on top of Buffalo looking like world beaters – has pumped five points into the Chargers’ spread, which sits as high as +7.5 as of this writing. There were already edges baked into the original spread, with L.A. drawing a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT) and facing a Bills team with extra days of rest. And yet, oddsmakers hung Buffalo short of a field goal fave. This reaction to two weeks of football has blown through key numbers of three, six and seven. Many of the Chargers’ woes are self-inflicted. Penalties and turnovers have swayed results in those opening losses but let’s not forget Los Angeles is dealing with new coordinators on both offense and defense in 2026.

The New York Jets have allowed just 4.0 yards per play, third-best in the NFL, and rank sixth in EPA per defensive play for the season. And while the Detroit Lions have given up an embarrassing 457.5 yards per game on defense, Geno Smith and the New York offense haven't shown any signs that they can even approach that kind of number. I'm backing the Under at totals as low as 47.5 points.

We have two teams that have hit the Over in three of four games this year, leading me to believe that this number is far too low. The Colts' defense is simply the worst in football so far, giving up a total of eight touchdowns through two weeks. Most of these are due to a struggling red-zone unit, which is coughing up a score 67% of the time. So what's been working for Indy? Undeniably, its offense, which is scoring at an 84% clip once they get inside the 20. While yes, the Colts are going up against one of the better defensive units in football, Houston has still allowed over 350 yards of total offense in the early parts of 2026. What does this all add up to? An Over. Play this up to 55%.

The Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (35.7 per game) since the start of last season.

Pittsburgh takes a series step up in competition and this is no longer the Steelers we could count on under Mike Tomlin. Aaron Rodgers is done and Cincinnati is looking like the best two-way team in the NFL, after handling Houston on the road in Week 3. The Bengals have collected eight sacks in the first two games and I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodgers doesn’t make it through Week 3, given the pounding he took in New England.  Oh, and Joe Burrow is absolutely firing on all cylinders. He’s surgical versus zone coverage and will slice up Patrick Graham’s passive playcalling. I'm taking Cincy ML before this price ticks up to two bucks or higher.

The 49ers have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.. While Christian McCaffrey has garnered 75.2% of his offense's red zone carries in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller piece of San Francisco's running game near the goal line this week at 61.5%.. Christian McCaffrey has accrued a colossal 19.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among RBs. (This may not seem too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. Christian McCaffrey's 40.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in football: 100th percentile for running backs.. With an excellent rate of 0.32 per game through the air (100th percentile), Christian McCaffrey places among the best receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to RBs since the start of last season.

Defensive masterminds Todd Bowles and Brian Flores send extra pass rushers more than most, which has me measuring just how the respective QBs will handle the heat. Baker Mayfield has been solid versus the blitz during this time in Tampa, with an uncanny ability to sneak away from pressure and either make a play with his legs or squeeze in a release pass. Kyler Murray is expected to be under center after having his Vikings debut cut short due to a concussion in Week 1. Murray hasn’t been great against blitzes during this career and had only 11 full-speed snaps (five dropbacks) in Kevin O’Connell’s offense before getting hurt. We’re getting Tampa Bay at a discount. It was originally a 1.5-point home favorite on the look-ahead market and sat at that same spread before the results of Week 2.

Baltimore just allowed New Orleans Saints QB Tyler Shough to throw for 7.4 yards per attempt with a 79.4 completion percentage in Week 2, and now the Ravens go up against a Dallas offense that’s fourth in both EPA per play and offensive success rate ahead of Monday Night Football in Week 2. Of course, there’s no stop on defense for the Cowboys, and the Ravens respectively check in sixth and third in the two highlighted metrics. Finally, I anticipate the trip south to Maracana Stadium to also take its toll on the two defenses in Week 3.

Vegas' new defensive coordinator Rob Leonard is creating tremendous pressure with his front four (No. 1 pressure rate despite blitzing on only 22% of snaps), collecting eight sacks and 10 QB hits. The Raiders now set their sights on second-year QB Tyler Shough. His PFF profile doesn’t paint a pretty picture under pressure. As a rookie, Shough was night and day when kept clean vs. under duress, rating 27th among qualifying QBs. The 2026 season produces a similar split, rating No. 5 when clean but 18th under pressure. It just so happens an already stressed New Orleans offensive line will be without starting LT Kelvin Banks for a while due to an ankle injury in Week 2. The Saints pass protection has already allowed eight sacks and ranks 28th in pass block win rate.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are anticipated by the model to run just 62.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.. The Rams have played in the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.. Matthew Stafford's running efficiency (6.37 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (79th percentile when it comes to QBs).. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Denver's DT corps has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

The Chicago Bears may pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup QB Case Keenum.. This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Chicago Bears have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.1 plays per game.. The Chicago O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.