Best NFL Picks Today

Cleveland enters the short week with major issues on the offensive line. Poor pass protection is amplified by injuries, with the Browns potentially down center Elgton Jenkins and guard Teven Jenkins. Watson faces a new-look Pittsburgh defense under Patrick Graham, but the Steelers’ pass pressure and ball-hawking tendencies remain. They sit 15th in pressure rate with eight sacks and have three interceptions already (FYI: top corner Joey Porter Jr. could be back for TNF). All that chaos in a collapsing pocket pushes Watson to hurry throws into the teeth of this Steelers zone coverage. Mix in the potential for some wet weather on Thursday and I see Watson throwing some meatball subs (as Tom Brady would say). Interception probabilities range from 40% to one model calling for an INT. My forecast boiled down to a 70% shot that Pittsburgh picked off Watson in Week 4, considering game script has the underdog Cleveland pressing the passing from behind.

While the Patriots offense has yet to show a sign of life, the defense has been serviceable. New England ranks fifth in total defense and seventh overall in success percentage, which means they should be able to limit Allen enough to go Under the number. We've all seen Maye's struggles so far this season, and with the Bills front seven wreaking havoc through the early parts of the year, I'm leaning on Greg Rosseau and Co. to disrupt Maye enough to get the job done. These two teams have gone Under in two of the last three matchups in this divisional rivalry - points will be tough to come by.

The Jets defense struggled against a more dynamic offense from Detroit in Week 3, giving up 381 yards and 24 first downs while ranking 29th in EPA allowed per play. Former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and his play calling is a problem, even with Case Keenum under center. Chicago spread the ball around to eight different receivers while also mixing in unique run calls. With confidence in the QB3 rising, expect Johnson to take the training wheels off in Week 4.

Both teams have looked solid against the run, so the stage is set for Burrow and Trevor Lawrence to air it out on Sunday – and that game plan plays to both teams’ strengths.

The numbers back that up. The Bengals are averaging 26.7 PPG, while the Jaguars sit at 27.3 PPG, and the Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these squads.

Miami just lost its biggest weapon in Achane, leaving Malik Willis to face this insane Vikings defense with little help. Minnesota's blitz-hefty schemes are humming and face a Dolphins offensive line that gave up nine sacks in the opening two games. Willis ranks among the worst QBs when blitzed at PFF. Justin Jefferson's injury status doesn't worry me as much in Week 4. If he does play, this spread jumps to key number of -10 and beyond.

Even against a strong Denver defense, the 49ers have the explosiveness to create scoring opportunities. It helps that they own the best red-zone offense in football - scoring 90% of their trips inside the 20. Denver shouldn't need a huge offensive performance to get this game over the number, either. Nix showed flashes on Sunday Night Football in his 16-0 comeback victory, and is in a groove after two straight wins. 

Detroit is willing to win shootouts, as we’ve seen, and new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is finding his groove. Quarterback Jared Goff spread the ball around to eight different options on Sunday, and it woke up the rest of the weapons, beyond Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions owned the fourth-highest EPA per play in Week 3 and aren’t leaving points on the table, boasting the sixth-highest TD rate inside the red zone to start the year. Carolina is short in the secondary and dead last in red zone defense, giving up a TD on almost 86% of their opponents' trips inside the 20-yard line. Detroit does the "lion's share" of the scoring to get this Sunday night game and gets Over its team total.