Best NFL Picks Today

The Bears ran 72 plays last week, lead the NFL in plays per game, and posted a season-high +6% PROE with Caleb Williams back under center and scrambling less. The run game is struggling, but getting D'Andre Swift involved as a pass-catcher seems to be a priority for Ben Johnson. Swift has 10 targets over the last two weeks and ran a route on 46% of dropbacks last week. The Patriots have allowed the sixth-most adjusted receiving yards to RBs, per THE BLITZ. I'm targeting receptions over yards on Thursday and have this priced at 57%.

With the Saints allowing 12 touchdowns to opposing running backs through six games, I would recommend Warren to find the end zone to 60%. He's posted top-five ranks in yards per carry (6.5), yards after contact per attempt (3.94) and PFF elusive rating (98.5) across the past four weeks, and Warren is also a threat through the air with a league-high 14.1 yards per reception among backs during the run.

Aaron Jones is a buy to 56.5% (1.77x) for me this week, coming off the bye and some much-needed rest. The Colts are going to get swallowed up by the best defense in football, and Jones is coming off 25 carries in Week 5. He also has 11 of the Vikings' 15 RB red-zone carries this season, including 100% of them in Week 5. Jordan Mason is expected to be activated Saturday, but Jones should remain the starter after handling a massive workload in his absence, averaging 21.3 carries and 92.5 rushing yards per game. The Vikings are one of the few 6+ point favorites this weekend, and both the game script and matchup look great for the lead back in this indoor offense.

It was a tough call between Omar Cooper and tight end Mason Taylor (5.5x), but the rookie wide receiver blew up last week in his return from IR, leading the Jets in targets (7), receptions (6), and yards (104) against the Patriots. He had a 6.5x TD last week and another called back, but the move to 4.8x isn't nearly enough for a receiver capable of putting up 100 yards who now gets to face the Dolphins. I was hoping to get him at 3.5x, so seeing 4.8x was a nice surprise. Adonai Mitchell shouldn't be priced shorter than the rookie, especially coming off a finger injury. The Jets ran 11 personnel on 68% of their snaps last week, so there's room for Cooper even if Mitchell suits up. Taylor is another good look at 5x or better, as he's playing ahead of Kenyon Sadiq.

The Bengals pass rush is a quiet killer, producing the fifth highest pressure along with 17 sacks in five games despite blitzing at the second lowest rate. That frees up the Cincy linebackers to focus fire on Derrick Henry. The Ravens pass defense hasn’t faced a QB as good as Burrow since Dak Prescott and as Jason La Canfora points out, Baltimore’s corners have allowed a QB rating of 94.4 against from a group of passers with a collective rating of just 86.0. Burrow doesn’t need any help looking better than he is, currently ranked near the top in several key QB measurements. The last time he faced Jesse Minter’s defense, he passed for 356 yards and three touchdowns versus the L.A. Chargers in 2024.

In a matchup where the smallest margins could ultimately decide the outcome, finding even the slightest edge is crucial. And when it comes to the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans, that edge lies on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland's defense has quietly been a bright spot this season, ranking 13th in defensive EPA per play, while Tennessee sits a lowly 23rd. The Browns simply have the stronger unit, surrendering just 20 points per game while boasting the NFL's fifth-best red-zone defense; opponents are converting only 43% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns. I'm all over the Browns here - Cam Ward and his struggling offense are going to have a difficult time moving the ball between the 20s and ultimately finding the end zone.

Jalen Coker's TD price moved too much, but with Darren Waller's snap share dropping and Tommy Tremble picking up the slack, there could be a new TE1 emerging in a Carolina offense that ranks second in the NFL in PROE. Tremble played 70% of the snaps last week in a game that could look very similar to Week 7. He finished with two TDs and ranked third on the team in targets and receptions, with four of each. He also saw two red-zone targets, and the Panthers have four TE red-zone TDs this season — the same number as their rushing TDs. Bryce Young has dropped back to pass on 58% of Carolina's red-zone plays, adding to Tremble's scoring upside.

We pay the TE tax on "National Tight Ends Day". Kittle jumps up the pecking order in terms of targets with the Niners missing WRs. He has five touchdowns on the season, drawing 10 red-zone targets for eight catches and four TDs inside the 20-yard line. The Falcons have had their hands full versus rival TEs, giving up seventh most targets and receptions to the position, along with four touchdowns to tight ends.

I'm going back to an old favorite in Week 7, backing Isaiah Likely to score at a fair price of 3x. There's some uncertainty with the move to J.J. McCarthy, who targeted Likely on three of his 17 passes in Week 6, but the New York TE is the second-most targeted player at his position and was 100 points shorter last week. The Texans' defense is more legit than the Saints', but Week 7 is indoors, and Houston has allowed 90 points at home in three games. The Texans are also returning from London with four defensive starters questionable to begin the practice week. Likely has five TDs on the year and leads all New York pass-catchers in red-zone targets.

JK Dobbins has had 20 opportunities and a TD in back-to-back games, and with Tyler Badie injured, that workload looks very sustainable in Week 7 vs. the Cardinals, who allow the third-most rushing yards to RBs and rank in the bottom third in TDs allowed to the position. I have his TD price at 53%, with RJ Harvey not posing a massive TD threat and serving more as the passing-down back. Jaylen Waddle picked up a chest injury last week, and the Broncos might have to lean on their RB stable a little more this week, especially as 4.5-point road favorites.

The loss of Davante Adams should open up more snaps for Colby Parkinson, but more importantly, it creates a red-zone void that the TE can fill. I have Parkinson at a fair price of 4.5x, 50 points shorter than his mid-week price. He played 53% of the snaps last week but saw more targets (6) than Tyler Higbee, who played 78% of the snaps. Parkinson also had three red-zone targets, turning one into a score. He has more RZ targets than every Ram not named Adams. It's an indoor game vs. a defense that allows the fourth-most TDs to the position.

This is a 53.5-point indoor total, and Matthew Golden is 2.63x as a potential No. 1 passing option who should have a fair price closer to 2.4x. Golden had 13 targets and 204 air yards last week and could have scored multiple TDs in what ended up being a one-TD effort. His 26% target share is three points higher than Christian Watson's, yet Watson is priced 30 points shorter to score. Golden has TDs in three of his last four games, along with a hefty seven red-zone targets over the last three weeks, tied for the most of any player in that span. Detroit has been one of the most generous teams to opposing WRs this year, allowing 179 yards per game (fourth most) and 1.08 TDs per game (fifth most). The Lions have also been awful in the red zone, allowing TDs on 81% of opponents' trips, the second-highest rate in football, while surrendering 29.6 points per game.

Outside of a Week 1 win over the Broncos, the Chiefs have bullied stop units currently sitting 21st or worse in Defensive DVOA. Seattle sits No. 2 in that popular advanced metric and their four-man front is the reason why I’m taking the home team to win outright. That four-man rush is generating the second highest pressure rate despite Mike Macdonald blitzing on less than 24% of opponent dropbacks. Any time we’ve seen Patrick Mahomes struggle it has been versus opponents who can conjure that level of heat with just a four-man attack. I like Seattle ML below -150.

Philly checks in 1-5 ATS, and now the team has major injury concerns on both sides of the ball – and at every level. While there’s no sugarcoating the struggles of the Dallas defense, the offense can score on a Philadelphia stop unit allowing the seventh-highest EPA per play and generating pressure at the sixth-lowest rate. With the Eagles ranking 26th in offensive DVOA and dipping to just 14.5 points per game across their four consecutive losses, even the Cowboys can make enough stops to pull away and cover the number.