Buffalo 1st AFC East11-6
Kansas City 1st AFC West11-6

Buffalo @ Kansas City props

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Made Props • Buffalo

Dalton Kincaid
TE • Buffalo
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.9
Best Odds
Under
-104

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the most sluggish paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.97 seconds per play. Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.

Dalton Kincaid

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.9
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.9

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the most sluggish paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.97 seconds per play. Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.

Travis Kelce Receptions Made Props • Kansas City

Travis Kelce
TE • Kansas City
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
7.2
Best Odds
Over
+100

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics. The model projects Travis Kelce to total 9.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among TEs. Travis Kelce has been a key part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 24.0% this year, which puts him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends. With an excellent 6.8 adjusted catches per game (100th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce ranks as one of the top tight ends in the pass game in football.

Travis Kelce

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 7.2
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
7.2

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics. The model projects Travis Kelce to total 9.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among TEs. Travis Kelce has been a key part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 24.0% this year, which puts him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends. With an excellent 6.8 adjusted catches per game (100th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce ranks as one of the top tight ends in the pass game in football.

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Made Props • Kansas City

Jerick McKinnon
RB • Kansas City
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.5
Best Odds
Over
-156

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics. In this game, Jerick McKinnon is forecasted by the projections to find himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.6 targets.

Jerick McKinnon

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.5
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.5

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics. In this game, Jerick McKinnon is forecasted by the projections to find himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.6 targets.

Rashee Rice Receptions Made Props • Kansas City

Rashee Rice
WR • Kansas City
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.8
Best Odds
Over
-162

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics. In this contest, Rashee Rice is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 86th percentile among WRs with 7.9 targets. The model projects Rashee Rice to be much more involved in his team's passing game in this week's game (20.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (15.4% in games he has played). Rashee Rice checks in as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 4.4 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.

Rashee Rice

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.8
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.8

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics. In this contest, Rashee Rice is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 86th percentile among WRs with 7.9 targets. The model projects Rashee Rice to be much more involved in his team's passing game in this week's game (20.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (15.4% in games he has played). Rashee Rice checks in as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 4.4 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Receptions Made Props • Kansas City

Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB • Kansas City
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.4
Best Odds
Under
-125

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.1 per game) this year. Clyde Edwards-Helaire's 0.6 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a meaningful reduction in his receiving talent over last year's 1.7 mark. The Bills safeties grade out as the 10th-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.4
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.4

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.1 per game) this year. Clyde Edwards-Helaire's 0.6 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a meaningful reduction in his receiving talent over last year's 1.7 mark. The Bills safeties grade out as the 10th-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Stefon Diggs Receptions Made Props • Buffalo

Stefon Diggs
WR • Buffalo
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
6.8
Best Odds
Over
-105

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast Stefon Diggs to accumulate 10.5 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 96th percentile among wideouts. With an impressive 29.5% Target% (94th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs places among the WRs with the biggest workloads in football. The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board. Stefon Diggs checks in as one of the best wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 7.0 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

Stefon Diggs

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 6.8
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
6.8

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast Stefon Diggs to accumulate 10.5 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 96th percentile among wideouts. With an impressive 29.5% Target% (94th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs places among the WRs with the biggest workloads in football. The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board. Stefon Diggs checks in as one of the best wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 7.0 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

James Cook Receptions Made Props • Buffalo

James Cook
RB • Buffalo
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.6
Best Odds
Over
-122

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. James Cook's 45.6% Route Participation Rate this season marks a remarkable gain in his pass attack utilization over last season's 19.1% mark. In this game, James Cook is projected by the projections to finish in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.4 targets. The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board. James Cook's receiving skills have improved this season, accumulating 2.8 adjusted catches vs a measly 1.3 last season.

James Cook

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.6
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.6

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. James Cook's 45.6% Route Participation Rate this season marks a remarkable gain in his pass attack utilization over last season's 19.1% mark. In this game, James Cook is projected by the projections to finish in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.4 targets. The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board. James Cook's receiving skills have improved this season, accumulating 2.8 adjusted catches vs a measly 1.3 last season.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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