Best NFL Picks Today

I price Parker Washington closer to 52% to score a touchdown, so I'm shocked to see him trading at just 43% on Kalshi. This feels like an absolute steal compared to both my projection and the rest of the market. Operating out of the slot, Washington can exploit the Colts' zone coverage, which must account for both his receiving threat and Trevor Lawrence's ability to make plays with his legs. Liam Coen's creativity and frequent use of motion with Washington in the slot could also create communication breakdowns in the Colts' secondary, particularly near the red zone.

The Titans have problems giving up home runs over the top and Higgins is one the best deep threats in the land, averaging 21.6 air yards per reception and amassing eight catches for 20+ yards. Tennessee has also been burned by WR2s to start the season, rating 24th in DVOA vs. WR2s at FTN while giving up almost 56 yards per game to those second options. Most forecasts come in above 80 yards and my projection sits just shy of 81 yards receiving for Higgins.

Coming back from Europe with no bye is a death sentence for most teams, as they're a cool 0-8 ATS in the last eight of these situations. Pittsburgh's offense didn't look great vs. the Saints, so the TD choice in this game is pretty easy for me. The Steelers have allowed the fewest rushing TDs to opposing running backs in football, but after hitting Denzel Boston for two weeks with nothing to show for it, it's KC Concepcion for me. He had 10 targets last week and passed Boston for the team lead in target share. He also carried the ball three times, which is something the Browns might have to get creative with again this week against that Pittsburgh defense. I got this at 27% and would buy at 29%.

I recommend Hockenson finding the end zone up to 31% because he has garnered a solid 33.3% target share in the red zone and scored last week. The Lions have also surrendered a league-high 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends, including yielding a score to the position in five of six games. Of course, Hockenson also ranks second in EPA per target among tight ends.

Baker is back, and the Buccaneers didn't need to pass much last week, finishing with the lowest PROE in football. That will be very tough to replicate, which should mean a bigger workload for Chris Godwin, who operated as WR1 with Emeka Egbuka out. Egbuka is dealing with multiple injuries, including a concussion, so his return to the field isn't guaranteed this week. The worst Godwin can be is WR2 against a defense that has given up 105 points over its last four games. I got this at 27% and would play to 32% if Egbuka sits and 30% if he plays.

Sunday’s trip to Dallas is a pass-positive game script for the large road underdog and while QB Jacoby Brissett has fallen off a cliff, he faces a soft Cowboys secondary making all QBs look like Pro Bowlers (opponent passer rating of 105.2). Most of Wilson's Week 8 projections sit north of 60 yards with a ceiling of 70 yards receiving. My forecast comes out to 63+ yards,  buying back a market that was as high as 80+ just three games ago.

Only the Bills' defense is allowing more TDs to opposing WRs than the Raiders. Since Week 3, this defense ranks dead last in EPA/play, success rate, and dropback success rate. Omar Cooper still ripped off 115 yards and a score last week despite the return of Adonai Mitchell and the team running just 53 plays. He's gone for 100+ yards and a score in back-to-back weeks. His efficiency is off the charts right now, and he shouldn't be priced 100 points longer than Garrett Wilson. I have Cooper at 30%.

Going back to November 2024, Allen has rushed for at least 30 yards in nine of the previous 14 games with closing spreads of four points or shorter. He’s averaged more than 43 yards rushing in those contests. His Week 8 projections range from 29 yards to a ceiling of 40.5 yards rushing, with my number at 38.5 gains on the ground and giving plenty of respect to the higher forecasts.

The Rams went with heavy TE sets last week without Davante Adams in the lineup, and Colby Parkinson stood out again while Tyler Higbee's targets continued to fall. However, Parkinson picked up a rib injury and didn't practice Wednesday, which could open the door for Davis Allen to step up. Allen had two TDs last week on five targets and could see some run as TE1 if Parkinson sits. He's also being used well in the red zone, with four RZ targets over his last three games. Terrance Ferguson is also out, creating the potential for a big role in an indoor game. Allen is at 15% but should be priced closer to 24%, around Higbee's current price.

I recommend this Henry Over up to 41.5 receiving yards because Miami has allowed 29 receptions and a league-high 93.5% catch rate to tight ends over the past three weeks. Henry has also recorded 40 or more receiving yards in four straight while catching 19 of 21 targets for an average of 56.3 yards per game, and he ranks fifth in EPA per target and third in catch rate among tight ends for the year.

I recommend this touchdown prop to 35% after Coleman handled a 49% snap share and sparked Denver to a fourth-ranked rushing DVOA in Week 7. Head coach Sean Payton is looking to give Coleman more touches, and veteran rusher J.K. Dobbins has dipped to just 3.2 yards per carry over the last three weeks. Coleman's high-end 0.12 EPA per rush and physical between-the-tackles style make him the best option for red-zone looks in the Denver backfield.

At 29%, I'll hit the button on Jayden Daniels to score a touchdown, as I make him closer to 36% to find the end zone against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Vic Fangio likes to play man coverage near the goal line to take away quick-hitting routes like slants and fades. With defenders focused on their assignments, Daniels has an opportunity to exploit the coverage, escape the pocket, and run his way into the end zone.

There's no chance I'm passing this up at 53%, as I price Jaxon Smith-Njigba closer to 61% to score a touchdown against the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. Seattle does an excellent job using pre-snap motion to get Smith-Njigba into stacked alignments, creating free releases off the line of scrimmage. Against a defense that relies on match coverage in the red zone, those formations can create communication breakdowns, and that's the last thing Chicago wants near the goal line when Smith-Njigba is running quick-hitting routes.