Iowa @ Rutgers Picks & Props

In addition to Raymond splitting touches, he’s facing an Iowa front seven that ranks 23rd in success rate. It also ranks in the Top 15 in explosive rush rate, and Top 25 in stuff rate. The Hawkeyes are allowing just 2.5 line yards per rush and less than one second-level yard par carry. Rutgers will likely find it difficult to break off chunk runs, and it’s difficult to see Raymond hitting his current 5.8 yard average per carry. Raymond has 79+ yards in his first three games, but not one of those run defenses come close to what Iowa has in store for him. Unless he suddenly gets the bulk of the carries, I’m not sure how he gets to 70 yards here. 

Rutgers has already shown issues with mobile quarterbacks this season. Gronowski has a history of making plays with his legs. He only had 12 yards rushing last week, but that’s because he didn’t need to scramble last week. He had 37 or more in his first two games though, where his passing numbers were quite poor. Rutgers has allowed an explosive run rate of over 12%, one of the worst marks in college football. Opponents are also converting on 45.7% of late-downs, an area where Iowa’s thriving so far. As long as the Iowa passing game is struggling, Gronowski’s going to need to make plays with his legs to extend drives. He’ll get 30+ here once again.  

Patterson and Xavier Williams are splitting time in the Iowa backfield, but Patterson has rushed for at least 47 yards in all three games. Williams ran for 122 in the opener against Albany, but hasn’t topped 40 yards since then and has had fewer carries than his stable mate the last two games. Iowa’s offense is averaging 3.7 line yards per rush, in addition to 1.2 second-level yards. The Hawkeyes have had fewer than 10% of their runs stuffed, and Rutgers is allowing two open-field yards per carry. Patterson’s picking up 5.8 yards a pop. The Hawkeyes know their best path to victory is to pound the ball early and often, and Patterson will get double-digit carries and go over his total.

Iowa will get Mark Gronowski going in the run game after watching Ohio go for 200 rushing yards vs. Rutgers in Week 1. But the difference in this game will be the Hawkeyes' defense. Iowa ranks 30th in defensive success rate and is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per play in the country.