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Free College Football Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game Oct. 1, 2026
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
26.72 |
+2.5 -110 |
o56.5 -106 |
+115 |
|
|
30.29 |
-2.5 -105 |
u56.5 -110 |
-125 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
29.14 |
-1.5 -108 |
o56.5 -105 |
-116 |
|
|
28.65 |
+1.5 -105 |
u57.5 -110 |
+110 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
28.55 |
-6.5 -112 |
o49.5 -115 |
-260 |
|
|
22.10 |
+6.5 +100 |
u50.5 -110 |
+220 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
25.87 |
+2.5 +100 |
o54.5 -115 |
+128 |
|
|
28.96 |
-2.5 -110 |
u55.5 -120 |
-140 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.55 |
-2.5 -120 |
o45.5 -110 |
-139 |
|
|
21.99 |
+0.0 +120 |
u45.5 -108 |
+125 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
28.57 |
-6.5 -105 |
o50.5 -105 |
-225 |
|
|
23.64 |
+6.5 +100 |
u50.5 -110 |
+240 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
15.85 |
+19.5 -108 |
o49.5 -108 |
+1000 |
|
|
33.99 |
-19.5 -104 |
u49.5 -110 |
-1200 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
19.72 |
+13.5 -105 |
o53.5 -110 |
+450 |
|
|
34.21 |
-13.5 -109 |
u54.5 -115 |
-529 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
23.93 |
-5.5 -110 |
o43.5 +100 |
-210 |
|
|
20.31 |
+5.5 -108 |
u43.5 -110 |
+185 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
33.76 |
-21.5 -102 |
o46.5 -115 |
-1800 |
|
|
13.35 |
+21.5 -110 |
u47.5 -110 |
+1200 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
16.53 |
+21.5 -114 |
o55.5 -102 |
+1050 |
|
|
38.14 |
-21.5 +100 |
u55.5 -110 |
-1587 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.37 |
+4.5 -120 |
o45.5 -114 |
+155 |
|
|
26.30 |
-4.5 +100 |
u46.5 -110 |
-160 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
33.52 |
-4.5 -115 |
o60.0 -110 |
-200 |
|
|
28.94 |
+4.5 -105 |
u60.5 -110 |
+188 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
20.61 |
+12.5 -115 |
o51.5 -102 |
+350 |
|
|
32.89 |
-12.5 -105 |
u51.5 -110 |
-425 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.45 |
+3.5 -115 |
o52.5 -110 |
+135 |
|
|
28.23 |
-3.5 +100 |
u53.5 -110 |
-152 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
16.42 |
+10.5 -120 |
o43.5 -108 |
+340 |
|
|
27.14 |
-10.5 +100 |
u43.5 -110 |
-375 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
14.06 |
+25.5 -110 |
o50.5 -110 |
+1550 |
|
|
39.79 |
-25.5 -105 |
u51.5 -114 |
-2800 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
29.33 |
-13.5 -115 |
o46.5 -108 |
-600 |
|
|
17.03 |
+13.5 +105 |
u47.5 -115 |
+510 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
37.06 |
-19.5 -110 |
o51.5 -115 |
-1205 |
|
|
16.96 |
+19.5 -105 |
u52.5 -113 |
+1000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
19.25 |
+6.5 +100 |
o46.5 -115 |
+210 |
|
|
26.00 |
-6.5 -110 |
u47.5 -110 |
-240 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
31.56 |
+0.0 -182 |
o58.5 -108 |
-175 |
|
|
29.33 |
+0.0 +145 |
u58.5 -108 |
+157 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
27.68 |
-3.5 -104 |
o50.5 -108 |
-164 |
|
|
23.92 |
+3.5 -108 |
u51.0 -115 |
+145 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
31.74 |
-5.5 -105 |
o57.5 -105 |
-200 |
|
|
27.11 |
+5.5 -109 |
u57.5 -109 |
+180 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.11 |
+2.5 +100 |
o53.5 -110 |
+120 |
|
|
27.36 |
-2.5 -110 |
u54.5 -113 |
-134 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
11.97 |
+17.5 -105 |
o45.5 +100 |
+800 |
|
|
31.75 |
-17.5 -105 |
u45.5 -110 |
-1099 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
20.11 |
+6.5 -115 |
o48.5 -110 |
+190 |
|
|
27.90 |
-6.5 -105 |
u49.5 -115 |
-210 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
23.57 |
+7.5 -121 |
o54.0 -110 |
+235 |
|
|
31.50 |
-7.5 +105 |
u54.5 -110 |
-270 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
14.57 |
+13.5 -105 |
o43.0 -110 |
+480 |
|
|
29.92 |
-13.5 -105 |
u43.5 -110 |
-575 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
36.76 |
-20.5 -108 |
o52.5 -105 |
-1400 |
|
|
16.89 |
+20.5 -105 |
u53.5 -115 |
+1200 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
27.21 |
-2.5 -110 |
o51.5 -105 |
-135 |
|
|
24.47 |
+2.5 +100 |
u51.5 -110 |
+125 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
29.40 |
-14.5 +100 |
o45.5 -108 |
-600 |
|
|
16.64 |
+14.5 -110 |
u45.5 -107 |
+490 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.15 |
+2.5 -108 |
o51.5 +100 |
+120 |
|
|
27.92 |
-2.5 -105 |
u51.5 -107 |
-128 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
17.92 |
+19.5 -110 |
o55.5 -110 |
+800 |
|
|
39.45 |
-19.5 -105 |
u56.5 -110 |
-1000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
12.80 |
+23.5 -110 |
o48.5 -110 |
+1300 |
|
|
37.36 |
-23.5 -110 |
u49.5 -115 |
-2000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
18.89 |
+14.5 -108 |
o52.0 -113 |
+500 |
|
|
34.74 |
-14.5 -105 |
u52.5 -110 |
-649 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.96 |
+10.5 -120 |
o61.5 -110 |
+325 |
|
|
36.35 |
-10.5 +100 |
u62.5 -110 |
-375 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
25.74 |
+3.5 -115 |
o53.5 -113 |
+135 |
|
|
29.41 |
-3.5 +100 |
u54.5 -104 |
-148 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
32.99 |
-6.5 -105 |
o61.5 -105 |
-230 |
|
|
27.71 |
+6.5 -105 |
u61.5 -105 |
+210 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
18.64 |
+14.5 -118 |
o50.0 -110 |
+475 |
|
|
33.45 |
-14.5 +100 |
u51.0 -114 |
-599 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
21.54 |
+14.5 -115 |
o56.5 -110 |
+480 |
|
|
36.83 |
-14.5 +100 |
u57.5 -106 |
-600 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
27.12 |
-5.5 -115 |
o47.5 -108 |
-225 |
|
|
21.35 |
+5.5 +100 |
u47.5 -104 |
+210 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
26.86 |
-1.5 -110 |
o53.5 -110 |
-125 |
|
|
25.30 |
+1.5 -105 |
u54.5 -115 |
+112 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
34.10 |
-11.5 -108 |
o55.5 -110 |
-450 |
|
|
22.77 |
+11.5 -105 |
u57.5 -115 |
+380 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.17 |
+10.5 -120 |
o58.5 -112 |
+310 |
|
|
33.72 |
-10.5 +100 |
u59.0 -110 |
-360 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
32.91 |
-16.5 -112 |
o47.5 -115 |
-800 |
|
|
15.53 |
+16.5 +100 |
u48.5 -115 |
+640 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
31.66 |
-12.5 -110 |
o49.5 -115 |
-500 |
|
|
18.71 |
+12.5 -108 |
u50.5 -110 |
+390 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
14.39 |
+20.5 -110 |
o51.5 -107 |
+1200 |
|
|
35.55 |
-20.5 -105 |
u51.5 -110 |
-1400 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
20.88 |
+6.5 -108 |
o47.5 -105 |
+205 |
|
|
28.79 |
-6.5 -105 |
u48.5 -110 |
-235 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
25.80 |
-1.5 -110 |
o46.5 -115 |
-125 |
|
|
23.98 |
+1.5 -103 |
u47.5 -109 |
+120 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
40.49 |
-23.5 -120 |
o55.5 -110 |
-2200 |
|
|
17.25 |
+23.5 -105 |
u56.5 -110 |
+1300 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
20.58 |
+7.5 -125 |
o47.5 +100 |
+220 |
|
|
27.78 |
-7.5 +105 |
u48.0 -115 |
-250 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
21.31 |
+2.5 -114 |
o45.5 -108 |
+110 |
|
|
22.89 |
-2.5 -108 |
u45.5 -109 |
-115 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
32.19 |
-7.5 -103 |
o57.5 -110 |
-290 |
|
|
26.61 |
+7.5 -108 |
u58.5 -114 |
+265 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.87 |
+4.5 -115 |
o48.5 -110 |
+155 |
|
|
27.48 |
-4.5 -105 |
u49.5 -112 |
-170 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.23 |
+7.5 -120 |
o55.5 -109 |
+220 |
|
|
31.05 |
-7.5 +100 |
u56.5 -115 |
-250 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.88 |
+3.5 -112 |
o50.5 -110 |
+130 |
|
|
26.63 |
-3.5 +105 |
u51.5 -110 |
-148 |
This game should have a nice offensive rhythm to it. These programs rank 13th and 16th in seconds per play through four games while ranking in the 100s in opposing yards per game on defense (NMSU 101st at 423 ypg, WKU 132nd at 497.3 ypg). Yes, the Hilltopers have struggled offensively, but two of their four games came against the elite defenses of Georgia and Indiana. This is a coin-flip contest that should see the ball moving in both directions.
North Texas has scored 44+ points in three of its four games, but those came against three defenses ranked 90th or worse by SP+. Tulsa is ranked 60th and has held three of four opponents to 17 or fewer, including Oklahoma State. It's not just about the Golden Hurricanes' defense, either. Their offense lends well to limiting opponents because it takes a ball-control approach, running just 63.7 plays per game, the 104th most in FBS.
Tulsa has one of the best defenses in the Group of Six (60th by SP+) and an offense that limits opponents' possessions by running the 104th-most plays per game in the country (63.7). That's helped Tulsa hit the Under in all four games this season and should help the Golden Hurricanes limit North Texas' high-powered attack. UNT's defense is underrated, too, and held UNLV to just six points.
Give me VT -2.5 in the first half, but I'd pass at -3.5. Pitt is playing its first road game in a hostile Lane Stadium environment, while the Hokies have a +14.6 first-half scoring margin. Virginia Tech's weak rushing attack makes the early-game angle especially appealing.
Under 54.5 is playable down to 52.5. Both defenses consistently force long third downs, while neither offense generates many explosive plays. I'm also seeing Over action despite downward total movement, so the market signal matches my football handicap.
I'm on Penn State first half as long as the spread stays below -3. The Nittany Lions should start fast, while Northwestern's poor rushing attack could waste early downs before the Wildcats are forced to abandon the run.
Under 46.5 is playable down to 45.5. Both teams play slowly and lean on the run, while Northwestern's poor rushing efficiency and sack problems should create long third downs. The Wildcats' bend-don't-break defense should also turn scoring opportunities into field goals.
While Michigan is coming off a walk-off loss to Iowa and Minnesota just beat Washington, the Wolverines have dominated the Little Brown Jug series. Michigan is 44-4 against Minnesota since 1968, and the Wolverines have covered in 9 of the last 12 matchups. I'm expecting Kyle Whittingham to have Michigan motivated to bounce back, and for Gophers QB Drake Lindsey to struggle against this defense. I like the Wolverines to cover -5.5 or better.
Notre Dame has no reason to let off the gas this season, especially after being left out of the College Football Playoff a year ago. The Fighting Irish have to leave the committee with zero doubt that they are one of the best teams in the country. With a big game against BYU still two weeks away, they should be fully focused on North Carolina this week. Although the Tar Heels look far better than they did a year ago under Bill Belichick, they're going to get bullied by an elite defense that ranks No. 2 nationally and is allowing just 8.25 points per game. The Fighting Irish will be too overwhelming for the Tar Heels as they face their toughest test yet. I'm fully expecting a low-scoring game, with the Irish covering the 21.5-point spread. Playable to -22.5.
Notre Dame has no reason to let off the gas this season, especially after being left out of the College Football Playoff a year ago. The Fighting Irish have to leave the committee with zero doubt that they are one of the best teams in the country. With a big game against BYU still two weeks away, they should be fully focused on North Carolina this week. Although the Tar Heels look far better than they did a year ago under Bill Belichick, they're going to get bullied by an elite defense that ranks No. 2 nationally and is allowing just 8.25 points per game. The Fighting Irish will be too overwhelming for the Tar Heels as they face their toughest test yet. I'm fully expecting a low-scoring game, with the Irish covering the 21.5-point spread. Playable to -22.5.
Mississippi State ranks seventh nationally in available yards percentage at 65.7%, giving the Bulldogs a strong path to sustain drives against Alabama. Their passing game is also producing 0.34 EPA per pass, 27th nationally, so Mississippi State can stay productive if Alabama loads up against the run. I project Mississippi State to score 30 points. I think the offense is dynamic enough to test this Alabama defense in a hostile atmosphere.
I'm playing the Over to 62.5. Alabama is averaging 48 points per game and Mississippi State 43, while both quarterbacks rank inside the top 15 nationally in passing EPA per dropback. Alabama has the better defense, butMississippi State has an answer on the ground, ranking fourth nationally in rushing success rate and sixth in EPA per rush. That balance should keep Kamario Taylor out of obvious passing situations and help the home team sustain drives. On the other side, Bama has scored at least 45 points in every game, and Keelon Russell gets the better matchup through the air.
In addition to the Under, this is another way to capture a Florida team coming off a potentially massive win. I'll take the Missouri first-half moneyline up to 46%. As previously mentioned, I don't have a ton of respect for Drinkwitz because he hasn't commanded it. However, there's an argument to be made here.
Missouri has a legitimate early-game matchup edge because its defense ranks sixth nationally in early-down EPA allowed at -0.21 per play. The Tigers also start drives at their own 38-yard line, the best mark in the country, while opponents begin at their own 21, ranking second. That combination can create short fields and make it difficult for Florida to build its usual rhythm immediately.
The Florida Gators just beat No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28, so a letdown argument is obvious with a road trip to face the Missouri Tigers.
That said, I'm not letting that erase the matchup. I'll play the Gators to -6.
Florida ranks 14th in net adjusted EPA per play, while Missouri sits 72nd overall and 107th offensively. The Tigers’ defense is the reason this is not a runaway. It ranks 31st overall and third in pass success rate allowed. Florida can attack the softer part of the matchup on the ground, where its rushing offense ranks fifth in EPA per rush against Missouri’s 50th-ranked rush defense. There's not a ton here to get you believing in head coach Eli Drinkwitz either. Since 2024, Missouriis 1-9 vs. ranked teams, with its only win vs. No. 24 Boston College in 2024.
North Dakota State is a machine, and I would take the Bison to cover up to -20.5 in the Battle for the Basins. NDSU is top 20 nationally in offensive explosiveness (1.397) and defensive points per opportunity (1.72). Wyoming's defense has fallen to just 124th in success rate (52%) this season.
UMass still isn't getting enough respect, and I'd take the Minutemen to cover up to -9.5. They're 3-1 ATS, and their defense is No. 1 nationally in points per opportunity (1.50) and No. 13 in net EPA per play. Eastern Michigan's offense is ranked just 127th by SP+.
Virginia has cruised through an easy early-season schedule, but the Cavaliers now face a much tougher test against Florida State. While Virginia has faced some underwhelming competition, the Seminoles have already taken on Alabama on the road and played the Crimson Tide tough despite losing 50-36. Florida State turned the ball over three times in that game, with two leading directly to scores and the final turnover ending the game. Had the Seminoles avoided those mistakes, the game could have been much more interesting. Florida State has already faced stronger competition than Virginia, and I expect the Seminoles to keep this game close.
Ohio State needs a quality win after its Week 2 loss to Texas, and a road matchup against Iowa presents that opportunity. The Hawkeyes are coming off an outright win over Michigan, but were outgained by 144 yards and only rushed for just 58 yards. While Kinnick Stadium is one of the toughest environments in college football, Ohio State has the most well-rounded and talented offense Iowa has faced this season. With the Buckeyes looking to make a statement and Iowa potentially riding high after its upset win, Ohio State should be able to take care of business. If you can get -13.5, snag it!
This is a big road spread for Ohio State, with GameDay on campus for Iowa, but I like the Buckeyes at -13.5 or better. The Hawkeyes are coming off a jaw-dropping win and don't match up well with Ohio State. Led by Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State's offense ranks No. 4 in EPA per pass, while Iowa's defense ranks just 66th. Defensively, the Buckeyes' secondary is the toughest Hank Brown will see all season, and Iowa's inability to run the ball is a problem.
James Madison should be favored by more, and I like the Dukes to cover up to -20.5. JMU is 4-0 ATS, covering by an average of 18.5 points. The Dukes' defense is one of the best in college football, ranking fifth in success rate (35.1%), and Marshall's defense has been wildly underwhelming (116th in EPA per play).
I'll be riding with New Mexico until Jason Eck's team gives me reason not to. The Lobos are 4-0 ATS and have covered by double digits in each game (I'd take them up to -27.5). This defense is incredible, ranking second nationally in havoc rate (24.9%). UTEP's offense is abysmal, ranking 137th in net EPA per drive.
Play Washington down to +7.5. Washington has been stout up front (third in stuff rate, ninth in EPA per rush), and USC hasn't gotten its ground game going (79th in EPA per rush). That might make the Trojans more one-dimensional offensively than is ideal, especially with WR1 Trent Mosley injured. USC's defense (108th in EPA per play) is simply bad, and Demond Williams Jr. nearly always piles up production when playing down in competition.
Washington's poor offensive line (102nd in line yards, 118th in stuff rate) makes it difficult for the offense to truly click. Its defense, however, has played like a top-10 unit led by ends Jacob Lane and Isaiah Ward, and safety Alex McLaughlin.
Miami vs. Clemson is one of the biggest matchups on the Week 5 slate, and I’m backing the Hurricanes to cover the 16.5-point spread. Clemson is coming off a 24-10 win over California after traveling across the country, and now the Tigers face a much tougher test against the No. 4 team in the country. Miami has little room for error as it aims for another College Football Playoff berth while playing a relatively easy schedule. Clemson will be the toughest opponent the Hurricanes have faced this season, but Miami should have a significant talent advantage. I’m comfortable taking Miami up to 20.5.
Regardless of the weather, Miami's ground attack will have a field day against a Clemson defense that has struggled to stop the run (130th in success rate) thanks largely to an outgunned defensive front (135th in line yards).
First-quarter Under 10.5, but pass at 9.5. Both offenses have started slowly against FBS competition, making this a natural correlation with my full-game Under.
Under 50.5 is my favorite look, playable down to 48.5. Both offenses struggle to prevent Havoc, both defenses create it, and Colorado lacks explosiveness. Inefficient early-down offense should create obvious passing situations and plenty of drive-killing negative plays.
Boise State is the highest-rated Group of Six school in my power rankings. However, it didn’t cover as large a home favorite against South Dakota a couple of weeks ago. It’s tough getting a ton of margin consistently when Boise State runs a slow tempo that ranks No. 131 in plays per minute on offense. Finally, it is hard to cover three touchdowns when Utah State is only allowing 22 points on defense this year.
Temple has one of the country's most underrated offenses (13th in EPA per play) and one of the worst defenses (125th in EPA per play). Against a South Florida team that's 14th in offensive success rate (51.5%), points will be scored. The Over is in play for me at 50.5 or better.
Army could easily be 3-0 entering this game but blew a 10-point lead with five minutes left against South Florida in Week 2. South Florida completed a 38-yard touchdown pass on fourth down in the final seconds. What would this line be if that pass wasn’t completed? My hypothesis is at least -3 and likely -3.5. I think Louisiana Tech’s statistical profile is too much influenced by an 80-6 win over Northwestern State in Week 1. Northwestern State ranks No. 123 (out of 128) in my FCS power rankings.
I think this will close at 4.5, maybe even 5, so let's get infront of this. What I like most about this for Arizona State is the spot. They're coming off a bye and they haven't been at home in a while. Statistically, Arizona State is better in yards per play margin, despite the fact that they've played a tougher schedule.
San Jose State nearly always features a potent, aerial-led offense under offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann. This year's version has Jabari Bates' legs to provide a rushing element that's been absent in recent years, so Hawaii's defense (124th in success rate) will be on its back heels.
Hawaii has the 20th-fastest tempo (24.2 seconds per snap), and San Jose State has the fourth-fastest (22.5). This will be a quick, back-and-forth contest with plenty of pass attempts, which favors the Over.
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The table above lets you know how profitable and helpful our sports betting computer picks have been across the last 100 college football games played. Our NCAAF computer picks use expert data to review odds and generate moneyline, spread, and total bets for every game throughout the season.
Listed in the table are unit details, which show the total profit or loss based on a bettor placing $100 on each of the last 100 college football picks made by the computer, on both the opening and closing lines.
Take advantage of these free college football picks before you wager any money at sportsbooks.
As human beings, we're bound to be biased with our picks and potentially fall into the trap of swinging with the public. With advanced stats growing in popularity and getting harder to track, college football computer predictions are starting to become more relied on.
Betting on a moneyline simply means you're picking the outright winner of the game, regardless of the scoring margin or total. If the team you choose wins, then your bet hits. Here's what it will look like over at your favorite sportsbook:
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | -120 |
| Missouri Tigers | +150 |
In this case, Alabama is favored to win the game as its moneyline odds have a minus sign (-) in front of the number. The favorites will have the minus sign present, and the underdogs will have a plus sign (+). Easy, right?
Betting the spread gives your bet a bit more breathing room. Here, you don't need to sweat out a team to win. Instead, you can wager on the point differential on the scoreboard.
Betting on the spread is a good idea when the moneyline profits aren't enticing. There's no point betting on Alabama as a heavy -1500 favorite over Missouri. But taking Missouri to keep the scoring margin within a certain frame will get you more bang for your buck.
| Team | Spread |
|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | -24.5 (-105) |
| Missouri Tigers | +24.5 (-115) |
In this example, the Tide are favored to dominate their game against Missouri, outperforming them by at least 24.5 points.
If Alabama does win by more than 25 points, that would mean the Crimson Tide covered the spread. But if the Tide won by just 20 points, then that would mean the Tigers "covered the spread" instead.
If you think the outcome of a game could flip in either direction, then an Over/Under is the way to go. This bet relies on the combined score from both teams and whether it goes Over or Under the point total listed at sportsbooks. Then, who cares who wins?
| Team | Total |
|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | O 52.5 (-110) |
| Missouri Tigers | U 52.5 (-110) |
In this example, oddsmakers have set the total score for the game at 52.5 points. The choice is now up to you. If you think the Tide and Tigers will score a combined total of more than 52.5 points, 53 points or more, then pick the Over. If you're thinking otherwise, then bet the Under, and the bet will hit if they score fewer than 52.5 points.
If the set number was a whole number like 52 points and the two teams score exactly that amount, then it is considered a push and you'd get your money back.
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