Oklahoma vs Michigan Picks & Props
OKLA vs MICH Picks
NCAAF PicksWe got two defensive-minded head coaches, Whittingham and Oklahoma's Brent Venables, with better defensive personnel. Oklahoma is 7-9 Over/Under (O/U) vs. ranked opponents since hiring Venables in 2022.
The market dramatically overreacted to this result. During the summer, Michigan was a -2.5 favorite at some places. But, after last week’s clunker, Oklahoma is a -5.5 favorite in Ann Arbor. Out of principle I have to fade this line movement.
Michigan's Week 1 escape against Western Michigan left one simple conclusion: fade the Wolverines. After nearly blowing a 28-point favorite spot before a walk-off 47-yard touchdown, Michigan fans stormed the field, adding insult to injury. There should be standards for when fans are allowed onto the field, and Michigan's celebration certainly did not meet them. With the "if thou storms, thou must be faded" fade the storm rule in full effect, Oklahoma -4.5 was an easy play. Now sitting at -5.5, the Sooners remain playable to -6.5, especially with Oklahoma's defense presenting a major test for Bryce Underwood and the Wolverines.
Michigan is coming off Week 1's most controversial win, and Kyle Whittingham doesn't exactly sound confident in his five-star QB, Bryce Underwood. Oklahoma's defense is ranked Top 10 by SP+ and was third in havoc rate last season (22.7%). With David Stone and Taylor Wein harassing Underwood all game, John Mateer and the Sooners' offense can score enough to cover in the Big House.
I'm counting on both playing smash-mouth football, which makes it tougher for Oklahoma to win by margin and the Over to cash.
OKLA vs MICH Consensus Picks
OKLA vs MICH Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
MICH
B. Underwood
(QB)
o159.5 Passing Yards
183.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+24.1
DIFFERENCE
25.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Mateer
(QB)
u232.5 Passing Yards
220.13 UNDER
PROJECTION
-12.4
DIFFERENCE
22.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
OKLA
X. Robinson
(RB)
o24.5 Rushing Yards
33.13 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.6
DIFFERENCE
26.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
OKLA
L. Avant
(RB)
o39.5 Rushing Yards
52.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.4
DIFFERENCE
22.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MICH
B. Underwood
(QB)
u27.5 Rushing Yards
23.73 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.8
DIFFERENCE
21.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MICH
S. Hiter
(RB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
32.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
20.87%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MICH
J. Marshall
(RB)
o59.5 Rushing Yards
63.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.5
DIFFERENCE
16.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MICH
A. Marsh
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
50.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.3
DIFFERENCE
26.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MICH
J. Buchanan
(WR)
o48.5 Receiving Yards
78.29 OVER
PROJECTION
+29.8
DIFFERENCE
26.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
OKLA
T. Harris
(WR)
u48.5 Receiving Yards
46.71 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.8
DIFFERENCE
11.5%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
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