Ohio State vs Texas   Picks & Props

Last year's game was defined by defense and unproven five-star QBs. This year, those QBs, Arch Manning and Julian Sayin, are two of the top Heisman contenders, and both are throwing to a projected Top 10 pick (Jeremiah Smith and Cam Coleman). Texas and Ohio State are loaded on offense, and dealing with defensive changes (the Buckeyes are replacing seven starters who were drafted and the Longhorns have a new coordinator in Will Muschamp). 

Ohio State heads to Austin for a rematch of last year's Week 1 matchup, when the Buckeyes defeated Texas 14-7 in Columbus. This time, Ohio State enters as the underdog, creating an appealing outright opportunity. Texas' offense should be much better than last year, but the Longhorns' defense showed some concerning signs against Texas State, allowing nearly 350 total yards. The Bobcats also had opportunities to score more than seven points. Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia did an excellent job preparing for Manning last season, and another strong game plan could give the Buckeyes an edge. Expect Ohio State to start fast and silence the home crowd.

Texas may not be the side to back outright, but taking the points requires believing in Arch Manning to deliver against Ohio State in a rematch of last season’s 14-7 loss. Manning threw for 170 yards with a touchdown and interception in that game, and while I am not fully sold on him, I am certainly not a hater. Texas has plenty of weapons around its young quarterback, but its defense is a concern after allowing nearly 350 yards to Texas State and giving up 8-of-14 third-down conversions. Meanwhile, Ohio State played at a faster tempo last week, which could create scoring opportunities.

Julian Sayin has struggled in big games, throwing three interceptions and taking 10 sacks in Ohio State's three Top 10 matchups last year. Arch Manning has looked like the prince that was promised since last November, leading the country in QBR (87.9) over the final five games of 2025. Ohio State's defense is also replacing five Top 62 picks, while its offense has a new coordinator (Arthur Smith).

This Buckeyes fan has some serious concerns about the Ohio State offensive line and what might happen to said offensive line against Collin Simmons & Co. in Austin this Saturday. On the flip side of the ball, OSU doesn't have the defensive playmakers it did a year ago to stop a much more confident version of Arch Manning. I expect Texas to win the trenches on both sides of the ball and score a massive win as a result.