Iowa State vs Iowa   Picks & Props

New Iowa State starting QB Jaylen Raynor was terrible against P4 opponents while at Arkansas State. In four games against P4 teams, Raynor accounted for 11 turnover-worthy plays and threw just one TD. Iowa's defense is one of the best (ranked 11th by SP+), but its offense leans heavily on the run game, which will help the Under.

Jaylen Raynor completed just eight of his 16 pass attempts in the opener against an FCS school, so it's difficult to expect much from him against Iowa. The Cyclones have a green offensive line that has 15 career FBS starts and features zero full-time FBS starters, making life difficult for Raynor and this entire offense in a slow-paced contest.

Diaz hails from UT Rio Grande Valley, where he was a Freshman All-American after catching 68 passes for 890 yards and 11 touchdowns. He saw a whopping 13 targets in the opener, which he took for 84 yards and a score. He's in line to be the alpha of this pass-catching corps and very well may be the best wideout this program has seen in a long hwile. 

Vonnahme is the latest edition of what "Tight End U" has to offer. He averaged 74 receiving yards over the final five games of 2025 and has 42 yards in the opener. He averaged the highest yards per route run (3.1) of any returning tight end and is in store for a monster season.

Iowa returns home for another edition of the Cy-Hawk rivalry, and the Hawkeyes have a great opportunity to finally take care of business against Iowa State. The Cyclones have won three of the last four meetings, but this is a different program after Matt Campbell’s departure for Penn State. Iowa, meanwhile, remains under longtime head coach Kirk Ferentz. With the rivalry meaning so much to both sides, expect the Hawkeyes to be locked in from the opening whistle. Iowa has already lost the last two meetings by a combined 4 points, but I’m backing the Hawkeyes to win by two touchdowns.

The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy is set to be lopsided this year, with Iowa State being a completely different team than last year. New head coach Jimmy Rogers is relying heavily on G6 and FCS transfers to bolster a roster that ranked outside the Top 100 in returning production (45%). Iowa, meanwhile, has a dominant offensive line once again and a defense ranked Top 20 by SP+.