Diego Pavia Pas and Rus Yards Props • Vanderbilt
D. Pavia
quarterback QB • Vanderbilt
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt Picks & Props
UK vs VAN Picks
NCAAF Picks
Spread
VAN -8.5 (-110)
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
Vanderbilt presents the toughest challenge Kentucky has faced since its loss to Tennessee. and with the Commodores badly needing to win to remain alive in the playoff race, I expect they'll take care of business.
Vandy ranks Top 15 in both EPA/rush and EPA/pass, ninth in points per quality drive, and fifth in late-down success. The Wildcat defense ranks 96th in pass success rate against, 111th in scrambling EPA, and 95th in quality drive rate allowed.
The Wildcats are improved, especially with Cutter Boley looking better every week at quarterback, but this is just a bad matchup against a highly motivated Vanderbilt team. The Commodores are 5-1 ATS this season as favorites, and have covered three and pushed once in their last four. Those trends will continue here.
TD Passes
Diego Pavia o1.5 TD Passes (-108)
Projection 1.8341 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Passing Yards
Diego Pavia u245.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 221.2364 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Passing Yards
CB
Cutter Boley u200.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 190.5345 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Receiving Yards
Eli Stowers u63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 56.9665 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
KL
Kendrick Law o54.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Projection 56.301 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Receiving Yards
JS
Junior Sherrill u46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 45.4518 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Rushing Yards
SA
Sedrick Alexander o40.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 51.4068 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Rushing Yards
Diego Pavia o52.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 58.7049 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Rushing Yards
SM
Seth McGowan o58.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 63.9388 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
UK vs VAN Consensus Picks
UK vs VAN Props
Player
Prop
Season Avg.
Best Odds
UK vs VAN Trends
Kentucky Trends
Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.32 Units / 24% ROI)
Over
Under
Kentucky has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Over
Under
Kentucky have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
UK
VAN
Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+1.05 Units / 2% ROI)
UK
VAN
Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+0.85 Units / 4% ROI)
UK
VAN
Kentucky has only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 12 games (-5.42 Units / -39% ROI)
Over
Under
Kentucky has only hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 12 games (-3.70 Units / -28% ROI)
Over
Under
Kentucky has not hit the 1H Moneyline in any of their last 4 away games (-3.00 Units / -75% ROI)
UK
VAN
Kentucky have only covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 12 games (-2.75 Units / -20% ROI)
UK
VAN
Kentucky has only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 12 games (-0.95 Units / -7% ROI)
Over
Under
Vanderbilt Trends
Vanderbilt have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
UK
VAN
Vanderbilt has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)
Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.30 Units / 8% ROI)
UK
VAN
Vanderbilt has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+3.90 Units / 10% ROI)
UK
VAN
Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 42% ROI)
Over
Under
Vanderbilt has only hit the Team Total Under in 2 of their last 10 games (-7.25 Units / -63% ROI)
Vanderbilt has only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 2 of their last 8 games at home (-4.75 Units / -52% ROI)
Over
Under
Vanderbilt has only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 13 games (-4.75 Units / -31% ROI)
Over
Under
Vanderbilt has only hit the Game Total Under in 2 of their last 8 games at home (-4.60 Units / -52% ROI)
Over
Under
Vanderbilt have only covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 13 games (-2.05 Units / -14% ROI)
UK
VAN
