Last year must have felt like deja vu for Texas Longhorns win total Over bettors.
The Longhorns fell short of their win threshold of 9.5 by one victory despite entering the season as a -190 favorite to beat the number. And given how dismal the Longhorns have been at reaching their win plateau, you could understand completely if the Over crowd leaps off the bandwagon with both feet in 2026.
Here's a look at the recent history of Texas win totals, along with predictions on whether the Longhorns will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 9.5:
Texas 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 9.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 9.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 9.5 | 🟡 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
The Longhorns could be the preseason AP No. 1 for the second consecutive year. This time I think it’s more warranted with quarterback Arch Manning having more experience. Texas does play my toughest schedule in the country. While my ratings project them to be favored in 11 games (exception vs Ohio State), four of those favorite roles are by less than seven points.
Rob Paul
In two of the last three seasons, Steve Sarkisian has won double-digit games and reached the College Football Playoff. This year should be no different with everything the Longhorns are bringing back - they’re No. 6 in returning production (68%).
Leading the charge is Arch Manning, who looked every bit ready to be the next Manning to go No. 1 from November through the end of the season. Over those final five games, he only had a QBR below 91.9 once, and with improved playmakers around him, he should only be better. Sark loaded up in the portal with one of the best wide receivers in the country in Cam Coleman (Auburn) and by nabbing two of the top backs in Hollywood Smothers (NC State) and Raleek Brown (Arizona State).
The defense is a bigger question with Will Muschamp taking over, but he inherits one of the most disruptive players in the country, Colin Simmons. Texas also bolstered its back seven with major pickups in Rasheem Biles (Pittsburgh) and Bo Mascoe (Rutgers).
Colby Marchio
I may be off the juice, but I am still going to sip it. I am buying into this Texas team for a second straight year. I think they finally put it all together in 2026.
With Arch Manning back and only getting better over the offseason, the Longhorns should be even better than last year's team. Their defense should once again be one of the best in the country, and with a brutal stretch of early tests, they will only get sharper as the weeks go by.
Set the tone early. Beat Ohio State like you should have last season.
Over. Revenge year.
Texas win totals, odds and results (2005-25)
(Texas historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.5 | -190 | +155 | 9 | Under |
| 2024 | 10 | -105 | -115 | 11 | Over |
| 2023 | 9.5 | -135 | +115 | 11 | Over |
| 2022 | 8.5 | +105 | -125 | 8 | Under |
| 2021 | 8 | +105 | -125 | 5 | Under |
| 2019 | 9 | +100 | -120 | 7 | Under |
| 2018 | 8.5 | -150 | +130 | 9 | Over |
| 2017 | 8 | -120 | +100 | 6 | Under |
| 2016 | 7 | -170 | +145 | 5 | Under |
| 2015 | 7 | +145 | -170 | 5 | Under |
| 2014 | 7 | -120 | +100 | 6 | Under |
| 2013 | 9.5 | -130 | +100 | 8 | Under |
| 2012 | 9 | -110 | -120 | 8 | Under |
| 2011 | 8.5 | +120 | -150 | 7 | Under |
| 2010 | 10 | -115 | -115 | 5 | Under |
| 2009 | 10.5 | +115 | -145 | 12 | Over |
| 2008 | 9 | NA | NA | 11 | Over |
| 2006 | 9.5 | -110 | -110 | 9 | Under |
| 2005 | 9 | -130 | +100 | 11 | Over |
🔑 Key takeaways
- It ain't pretty: People love betting Overs, which makes the Longhorns the biggest disappointment in the SEC over the past 15 years (at least where win totals are concerned). Texas is a dismal 3-12 to the Over in its past 15 seasons, a stretch highlighted by eight consecutive Unders from 2010-17.
- On the other hand...: If you've bucked the trend and taken the Under on Texas' annual win total, you've made out well. The Longhorns have paid the Under out at plus money five times since 2013, including last year's eye-opening +150 payout on the U9.5.
- No so magic number: 2026 marks the fifth time that the Longhorns have gone into a season with a Vegas win total of 9.5. Texas is just 1-3 to the Over in the previous four instances but is averaging 9.0 wins in those seasons, so don't be surprised if this one is a close call either way.
How Texas win totals are priced
Oddsmakers have been consistent with Texas win totals in recent years; this marks the fourth consecutive year the 'Horns will go into the year at either 9.5 or 10.
This is one of the more intriguing schedules of any SEC team, and should provide plenty of hope to faithful Over bettors. The Longhorns will play six of their first eight games at home, along with a de facto "home date" with Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl. They'll also avoid Alabama and Georgia in 2026, which is a massive development.
On the flip side, one of their non-conference games is a dangerous early-season encounter with Ohio State, so don't quite lock in a double-digit win campaign.
Texas comes in with a conference win total of 6.5; the Over is priced at -130, with the Under at +110.
Texas hasn't lost consecutive regular-season games since 2021, going 10-0 SU after a defeat over its past four seasons.
Texas win total FAQs
Will Texas make the CFP?
The Longhorns are a strong bet to reach the College Football Playoff, carrying the seventh-best odds in the field at -200.
What is Texas's projected win total?
The Longhorns have been tabbed at 9.5 victories for the 2026 season, with the Over at +130 and the Under at -156.
Who is Texas's starting QB?
Arch Manning will look to bolster his NFL draft stock as Texas's unquestioned QB1; he threw for 3,163 yards with 26 touchdowns in 2025.
What is the most notable Texas win total trend?
The Longhorns missed their win total threshold by an average of two victories per season over the course of their eight-year Under streak.
What’s the best bet for Texas this season?
Based on our expert consensus, Texas is a strong OVER play (though Brad Powers has the Longhorns projected to finish Under).
