NBA Picks

Jalen Brunson has scored 25+ in 37 of 57 games overall and 17 of 29 at home. I expect him to thrive in front of the home crowd at Madison Square Garden and show out against the defending NBA champs.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks second in scoring average at 31.8, and he’s third in points per game on the road at 32. SGA returned to action on February 27 after a three-week absence, and he scored 30 and 36 across his first two games back. 

The reigning MVP has found success against the New York Knicks in recent matchups, going for 31+ in four of his last six head-to-head meetings, including two of his last three at Madison Square Garden. He sat out Tuesday for rest and should be fresh to shine under the brightest lights.

Derrick White ranks behind only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in total +/- this season, and his steady play elevated the Celtics even when he was mired in a shooting slump. But White is back to firing on all cylinders now. He’s nailed this combo Over in four of his last five outings, and he’s dished 7+ assists in seven of his past eight games.

Still, it’s White’s scoring that will power this pick. He’s drilled 4+ 3-pointers in five straight contests, and he’s finished with 18+ points four times since the All-Star break. I see him giving the Charlotte backcourt fits tonight.

Since the break, these teams rank first and third in points allowed while sitting 29th and 27th in pace — a clear recipe for an Under. The Hornets have held three of their last four opponents below 100, and the Celtics have done so in four of their last six. Charlotte now faces a major defensive step up in competition on the second night of a back-to-back, a spot where they’re 9-3 to the Under. Boston is 12-3 to the Under in its last 15 at home, with eight of the games staying below 212.5.

The Sixers are an NBA-best 10-1 ATS in the second leg of back-to-backs this season, with recent statement wins in this spot over the Timberwolves (by 27), Warriors (19), Bucks (17) and Raptors (13 in Toronto). Yes, they’ve been embarrassed the last two games, including a 40-point home loss to the Spurs, but consider the opponent. The Jazz have dropped six straight and rank 26th in road net rating. Expect some pride from Philly at home as they cling to the East’s sixth seed.

Keyonte George is averaging 23.8 PPG on the road and 26.5 points post-All-Star break.

When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Trail Blazers's unimpressive 33.7% rate of drained threes settles in as the 2nd-weakest in the league this year.

In terms of three-point shots, the Milwaukee Bucks's exceptional 40.5% rate of sunk threes as the home team comes in as the highest in the NBA this year.. The matchup against the Hawks is a positive one for three-pointers; the other team's starting PGs have averaged the 5th-most threes per game in the NBA this year (2.8).. The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to see a spike in plays in this contest from facing the 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Atlanta Hawks).

The Bucks have played at the 4th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while on their home court.. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Milwaukee Bucks grade out 1stworst in in the league with just 8.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.. Over the last 20 games, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 2.0 foul shots per game (fewest in the league) vs. the Atlanta Hawks, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.

This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied 11.6 shot attempts per game (5th-fewest in the NBA) against the LA Clippers, resulting in a tough matchup.. The Indiana Pacers are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year (the LA Clippers).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers grade out 1stworst in in the NBA as the away team with only 7.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting PGs have shot 42.1% on shot attempts from the field (8th-weakest in the league) vs. the Clippers, marking this as a hard matchup.. The Indiana Pacers are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year (the LA Clippers).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers grade out 1stworst in in the NBA as the away team with only 7.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.. This year when they are the visiting team, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.9 foul shots per game (8th-lowest in the league) against the Clippers, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

The Lakers have prevailed in three of their last four games against the Nuggets, and with Denver still missing power forward Aaron Gordon, I like L.A. to grind out a win at Ball Arena.