NBA Picks

With respect to offense, the Philadelphia 76ers's lackluster 45.8% field goal percentage at home settles in as the 3rd-fewest in the NBA this year.. The Brooklyn Nets have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should decrease opportunities for the 76ers.. The matchup against Brooklyn may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted just 0.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Nets are the visiting squad (least in the league).

The Brooklyn Nets have been the 9th-most aggressive offense in the league this year with respect to shot attempts from downtown.. This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing starting PFs have shot 45.6% on three-pointers (2nd-highest in the NBA) vs. the 76ers, making this a positive matchup.. The 76ers have played at the 6th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games in their home city, which ought to boost plays for the Nets.

The 2nd-speediest pace team in the league this year has been the Atlanta Hawks.

Stephon Castle notched his third career triple-double in Thursday’s loss to the Denver Nuggets, and he’s a prime candidate for another do-it-all effort today against the Hornets. He’s gone past this combo prop number in three straight outings, and he’s shooting 43% from downtown this month.

With the Spurs still chasing the No.1 seed in the West, there’s no margin for error, and Castle could see even more touches this afternoon if Victor Wembanyama and Dylan Harper – both questionable – sit out.

Plus, Castle had 16 points and nine dimes in Charlotte in late January, and he’s up to 7.0 APG this year, which quietly puts him 10th in the NBA in that category.

In terms of offense, the Spurs's exceptional 122.4 points per game places most in the league over the last 20 games.. Over the last 5 games when they are at home, opposing starting SFs have totaled 22.3 points per game (4th-most in the league) vs. the Hornets, labeling this as a positive matchup for offensive productivity.. The 9th-speediest pace offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Spurs.. The matchup vs. the Hornets is a good one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a whopping 4.5 foul shots per game this year (most in the league).

This year, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled 3.0 threes per game (most in the NBA) against the Celtics, branding this as a favorable matchup.. The most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Washington Wizards.. The Wizards check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Wizards have played at the quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to more plays for the Celtics.. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Celtics grade out 4th-best in in the league while at home with 13.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

Give the Orlando Magic credit. Despite a bumpy year, they’re up to fifth in the Eastern Conference after six straight victories – and I’m jumping on this Over for Desmond Bane, who’s racked up 21 assists across his past three games.

Bane’s strong play is a big reason for Orlando’s rise, and he’ll be a key figure tonight against a  Miami Heat team that’s matching the Magic’s scorching form. He’s averaging 5.6 APG so far in March, and he’s had five dimes in his last two outings against the Heat. 

There’s a clear path to a big playmaking impact here for Bane, with Franz Wagner still out and Anthony Black joining him on the sidelines, and Orlando has won all four meetings with its Florida rivals this year.

Both teams enter on win streaks, but the schedules tell a different story. Orlando’s run came mostly against struggling teams, including three games vs. Washington, two each vs. Brooklyn and Milwaukee, and one vs. Dallas.

Miami is 8-2-0 ATS in their last 10, and I like them to cover tonight. 

We’ve been treated to some great Lakers-Nuggets matchups in recent years, and Nikola Jokic should have his fingerprints all over tonight’s latest clash.

Denver is still searching for its best form in the lead-up to the playoffs, but Jokic has dished 12+ dimes in four of his past five outings, including a win over L.A. earlier this month.

The Nuggets lead the NBA with 120.6 PPG, and Joker’s passing is also the spark for their league-best 39% mark from beyond the arc. While the Lakers are on a four-game win streak, they just don’t have the frontcourt options to contain Jokic here. If JJ Redick’s men lean on double teams, the three-time MVP can be surgical in making the right reads.

Deandre Ayton’s pitiful 117.1 defensive rating ranks 32nd among 40 centers averaging at least 27 minutes per game this season. He won’t have any answer for the size and physicality of Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon and Jonas Valanciunas. 

The Lakers’ team defensive rating (115.9) is 20th in the Association, and LA doesn’t have enough quality defenders to throw at Joker, Jamal Murray and a cast of capable three-point shooters. Expect plenty of drive-and-kick opportunities for Murray to feed teammates and some quality looks in the lane as Gordon and Jokic pull interior defenders out to the perimeter.

Precious Achiuwa has tallied 15.9 points per game over the last 10 games, 7.2 more than he's tallied over the course of the year.. The Kings have played at the 3rd-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The Clippers have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more plays for the Sacramento Kings.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Sacramento Kings rank 2nd-best in in the NBA while playing on the road with 14.2 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.. This year, opposing starting PFs have attempted 4.1 free throws per game (9th-most in the NBA) against the Clippers, easily managing to draw fouls.

The Clippers check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).