MLB Picks

The Cubs are positioned to have a breakout day at the dish and have scored 24 runs across their past four games. Of course, the Pirates have also been dangerous with a deeper and more potent lineup than years past and rank seventh in wOBA against lefties to start the season.

Chicago will receive a boost with Seiya Suzuki making his season debut this afternoon, and the Cubbies have also been on the unlucky side to start the year with ranks of second in hard-hit rate and sixth in barrel percentage leading to a 25th-ranked BABIP. Additionally, Pittsburgh righty Carmen Mlodzinski has surrendered a 68.0% hard-hit rate through two starts, and three of his five offerings have negative pitch values.

Carpenter has already taken Marlins starter Chris Paddack deep before, going 3-for-5 with a bomb. The slugger has two long balls this season, and Paddack has an ERA over eight so far. 

When starting against a northpaw this year, Kerry Carpenter has been pulled from the game early 29% of the time.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this matchup to drop to the 2nd-lowest level on the slate at 51°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Kerry Carpenter pulls many of his flyballs (37.9% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 10th-deepest RF fences today.. When it comes to plate discipline, Kerry Carpenter's talent is quite poor, sporting a 5.53 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 4th percentile.

Burns has been dominant to start the season. While he showed some vulnerability to lefties last year, the Angels’ lineup is right-handed heavy.

Most of their notable bats – including Zach Neto, Mike Trout and Jorge Soler – are righties, working in Burns’ favor. 

The Angels rank 22nd in wOBA and 27th in line drive rate against right-handed pitching. They’re not a team that should cause Burns problems.

On the other side, Kochanowicz looks improved with a .211 average and .285 wOBA allowed. He draws a Reds offense sitting 28th in wOBA vs. righties.

With both sides struggling against righties, and a good pitching matchup, the Under is appealing.

Reds starter Chase Burns has allowed next to nothing through two games, holding opponents to a .154 average, .213 wOBA, and .77 ISO.

Burns leads all of today’s starters with a 37.2 K%, a 42% whiff rate, and a 20.6% swinging strike rate. He is giving up little to no contact and sitting hitters down at an electric rate.

Jack Kochanowicz is not nearly as capable at missing bats and he allows a lot of good contact to lefties – something top of the lineup bats Elly De La Cruz and TJ Friedl could exploit.

Expect the Reds’ pitching advantage to shine through.

Springers' ability to hit the fastball, paired with the 50% usage on that pitch for Woods Richardson, should give him an edge to take it deep over the wall. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is due for some positive regression after a slow start to the year. He’s hitting just .268 with only two XBH. However, under the hood, he’s posting a more impressive .299 xBA with a .500 xSLG this season. The Jays slugger may have started his turnaround in his last outing against the Dodgers, where he went 2-for-3 with a double. 

Giancarlo Stanton is hitting .326 out of the gate, but has just one home run on the year. It’s a nice spot for him to double that output. Stanton is a career .316 hitter off Matz in 19 at-bats, with a pair of home runs and four RBI.

Tampa Bay owns just a .503 lifetime OPS against Max Fried, and with the Yankees left-hander off to a 2–0 start with a 1.35 ERA, the Bronx Bombers will one-up their AL East counterparts at the Trop.

It’s been a great week for Baltimore Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson, who has hits in five of his last six games. That includes three home runs, a pair of doubles, and five runs batted in. He’s also scored at least one run in all but one game. Giants’ SP Landen Roupp is coming off a brutal 9-0 loss to the Mets, where he was tagged for seven hits and seven runs. Roupp's career WHIP of 1.425 is nothing to fear.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF dimensions are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.. Rafael Devers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shane Baz in today's matchup.

It’s been a slow start to the year for Ronald Acuna Jr, hitting just .204 with no homers in his first 49 at-bats, but there are signs of him heating up.He rapped a pair of doubles against the Angels last time out, doubling his two-base total on the year. He’s 1-for-3 in his career against Slade Cecconi, but this matchup is more about how the righty got rocked in his lone road start of the year. Cecconi was pelted for six hits and six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in an 8-0 loss to the Mariners.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Chase DeLauter ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Chase DeLauter is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #9 ballpark in the league for boosting base hits to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in the majors.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which often leads to better offense.

Milwaukee ranks Top 5 in runs per game and OPS, and the Brewers are set to take advantage of Nationals right-hander Jake Irvin, whom they have slashed .351/.439/.625 against. The home team should roll on Friday.

Let’s keep riding these Kansas City Royals Unders. They’ve moved to 9-4 to the Under and have scored just three runs over their last three games, all without facing top-end pitching. Bobby Witt can't get it going, and the middle of the order has yet to find any power. The White Sox are still a Bottom-5 offense. This sets up similarly to yesterday’s 2-0 game, with another comparable starting pitching matchup on tap against the Chicago White Sox. Conditions also lean Under, with temperatures still below 60 degrees and winds now blowing in at 10 mph after blowing out at 20 mph last night. This number looks a bit inflated and should close closer to a flat 8.

Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this contest projects the 4th-lowest temperature of the day at 58°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for mound aces.. Carter Jensen pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 85th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's deepest RF fences today.. Putting up a 6.1° launch angle in the past 14 days suggests that Carter Jensen has been finding it challenging to lift the ball of late, which is a key component of hitting for power.

The Boston Red Sox are trading at -143 on FanDuel, and that’s a price worth attacking—I make them closer to a -195 favorite in this matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals. Dustin May relies heavily on his power sinker, but when it doesn’t have its usual bite—especially against left-handed hitters—it tends to run into their barrels. Lefties can punish those flatter sinkers, often driving them out of the park. Early in the season, that sinker hasn’t shown much movement, which is reflected in the numbers—left-handed hitters are batting .500 with a 1.542 OPS against him. That’s where this matchup becomes a real concern. The Red Sox lineup is built to exploit it, with left-handed bats like Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, and Wilyer Abreu stacked at the top of the order.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Pedro Pages (the Cardinals's expected catcher today) grades out as a good pitch framer.. The #1 ballpark in the league for suppressing home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium's right field dimensions are the 2nd-deepest.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 5th-best among every team today.

I think you’re getting far too good of a price on the Rockies here. On one side, you have a starting pitcher and lineup that the market isn’t very familiar with, while on the Padres’ side, you have brand-name sluggers like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, along with a recognizable starter in Walker Buehler. The Rockies are trading at +160 on the moneyline, but I make it closer to +125. Tomoyuki Sugano is a command-first pitcher who mixes six different pitches, and I think he can frustrate the heart of this Padres lineup with proper sequencing. San Diego’s core hitters prefer to sit on fastballs, but Sugano can keep them off balance by throwing a variety of looks. Having the marine layer at Petco Park working in his favor only adds to the edge in this spot.

When estimating his home run ability, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the most humid conditions of all games today at 80%.. Brenton Doyle has a ton of pop (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (29.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Walker Buehler doesn't generate many whiffs (14th percentile K%) — great news for Doyle.. Brenton Doyle hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 4th-best hitter in MLB.. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for long-balls.. The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 4th-best hitter in MLB.. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for long-balls.. The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Texas ranks 22nd in on-base percentage against right-handed pitchers and have only scored 3.7 runs per game, so I expect Glasnow to hold the Rangers in check. And, while Los Angeles stands to have success at the dish, I don't think they're going to do enough damage to send this total Over the number tonight.

Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow has been dealing to start the year with a tidy 3.00 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 2.44 xFIP while holding opposing hitters to a miniscule 27.6% hard-hit rate. Los Angeles is also second in both wOBA and ISO against righties, so I expect them to do damage against Texas starter Kumar Rocker given his 9.29 ERA,1.97 WHIP and 5.01 xFIP on the highway since the beginning of 2025.