We got a big ol' slate in front of us, and there are quite a few MLB pitcher props that have me absolutely giddy today.
I will be fading an all-time great, while backing another to do what he does best. There is plenty to like on the MLB player props board, so let's cash some tickets and have a day!
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Shohei Ohtani |
Over 6.5 Strikeouts | +117 |
 Max Scherzer |
Under 3.5 Strikeouts | -112 |
 Gavin Williams |
Over 2.5 Earned Runs | +108 |
Strikeout prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 strikeouts (+117)
It is about time my MLB picks back the great one on the bump.
Shohei Ohtani looks determined to make a serious run at the NL Cy Young Award, and he finds himself in another strong spot to clear 6.5 strikeouts against a scrappy Tampa Bay Rays lineup that has been a bit swing-happy lately.
Over their last 10 games, six Rays hitters own a strikeout rate of at least 24.3%. Those numbers remain fairly consistent away from home as well, with five hitters carrying a strikeout rate of 23.3% or higher across their last 60 road plate appearances.
Ohtani has been dealing at Dodger Stadium this season, posting a 33.1% strikeout rate at home. He has also generated a 31.5% called strike plus whiff rate, a 14.1% swinging strike rate, and a 30.5% whiff rate in home starts.
The superstar also owns the No. 1 pitcher rating in both timeframes on Batters-Box. In 14 elite-rated pitching matchups, Ohtani has recorded six or more strikeouts in 71.43% of those starts and has gone Over this 6.5 strikeout number 50% of the time.
While the sample size is still relatively small, his performances this season suggest he is hunting hardware, and that hardware is the Cy Young Award.
I would play this down to +105 and gladly take the value on the 6.5 number. If you prefer the safer route at over 5.5 strikeouts, I would look to pair it with another prop from today's card.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNLA, RAYS
Strikeout prop: Max Scherzer Under 3.5 strikeouts (-112)
I am not usually looking to fade a future Hall of Famer, but Max Scherzer Under 3.5 strikeouts is a great look this evening against a Boston Red Sox lineup that has been seeing the ball much better lately.
The Red Sox have done an excellent job limiting strikeouts against right-handed pitching over their last 30 days. Six projected hitters own strikeout rates of 20% or lower during that span, while three sit at 10% or less.
On the other side, Scherzer is averaging just 2.3 strikeouts per start this season. His overall strikeout rate sits around 13%, but that number has dipped below 9% across his last three outings.
As great as the Mad Max legacy is, his recent performances have been far from vintage Scherzer. With Boston making consistent contact and Scherzer's strikeout upside continuing to trend downward, I would play this prop to -130.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, SN1
Earned runs prop: Gavin Williams Over 2.5 earned runs (+108)
I found it very hard to pass up backing one of the best lineups in baseball to score at least three runs against one of the worst-rated pitchers on today's slate.
That is especially true when you consider how dominant the Milwaukee Brewers have been at American Family Field, where they are averaging more than three first five innings runs per game this season.
Milwaukee's offense has been seeing the ball exceptionally well over its last 12 games, ranking second in wOBA, third in both wRC+ and OPS, and fourth in contact rate.
The Brewers also feature five elite-rated bats in Batters-Box's current season ratings as they draw Cleveland Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams, who owns the second-worst pitcher rating over that same span.
Williams brings in poorly rated ISO and hard-contact metrics for this matchup. On the road this season, he has allowed 47.1% hard contact along with a 54.8% elevation rate.
The Cleveland starter also owns a 5.00 xERA and has surrendered 57.6% hard contact with an 18.6% barrel rate across his last 90 road batters faced. During that stretch, opponents have posted a .394 xBA, .747 xSLG, and .361 xwOBA.
Asking the seventh-highest scoring first five-inning offense in baseball to push across three runs against a pitcher allowing this much quality contact feels well worth a sprinkle.
If the earned-run aspect gives you any concern, the Brewers' first five-team total over is a perfectly viable alternative.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BREW, CLEG
- Prop picks: 225-387-35, +10.54 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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