Boston Red Sox starter Jake Bennett draws a tough matchup tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays lineup that profiles extremely well against his pitch mix, making his Over 2.5 earned runs my favorite play of the night.
Find out more in my Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, June 17.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions
Blue Jays vs Red Sox best bet: Jake Bennett Over 2.5 earned runs (-120)
Jake Bennett owns a 5.28 ERA through three starts and has struggled to miss barrels, allowing hard contact at a 42.3% clip.
That sets up poorly against a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that has handled his primary mix of four-seamers, sinkers, and changeups well this season — batting .269 with a .420 slugging percentage against that mix.
The matchup points to another difficult outing for Bennett. I'd play Over 2.5 earned runs allowed down to -130.
COVERS INTEL: Toronto owns a 114 wRC+ against Bennett’s pitch mix since June 1.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
The batter who profiles best against Bennett is Kazuma Okamoto, who owns a .324 average and a .622 slug-rate against Bennett’s pitch mix.
Since I anticipate a busy day on the base paths for Blue Jays batters, I’ll take Over 0.5 RBI for Okamoto. He’s eclipsed this total in four of his last five games.
Davis Schneider is red hot at the plate with four hits in his last three games since being recalled, including back-to-back games with a home run.
Additionally, he profiles well against Bennett, with a high barrel rate and a solid batting average against the sinker and changeup, two of his most-used pitches.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox SGP
- Jake Bennett Over 2.5 earned runs
- Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 RBI
- Davis Schneider Over 0.5 hits
Blue Jays vs Red Sox home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+425)
As mentioned, Okamoto profiles extremely well against Bennett, owning a 57.7% hard-hit rate against his primary pitch mix.
The Boston rookie doesn't generate much swing-and-miss, which should allow Okamoto plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play with authority.
There is some risk here, however. Bennett generates plenty of topped contact and ground balls, which can suppress home-run production. That's why I'm limiting this to a half-unit wager despite the strong matchup.
- Best bets: 34-36, +3.05 units
- SGPs: 13-57, +2.35 units
- HR picks: 11-59, +0.9 units
Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +110 | Boston -130
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-175) | Boston -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-115) | Under 9.5 (-105)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the game total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Wednesday, 6-17-2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet 1, NESN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Max Scherzer (1-4, 10.23 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Jake Bennett (1-2, 5.28 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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