Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Wilyer Abreu |
Over 1.5 total bases | -104 |
 Brandon Lowe |
Over 1.5 total bases | -106 |
 Dominic Canzone |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | +109 |
Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 total bases (-104)
I am already fading Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Max Scherzer on another prop today, so why not fully take advantage of the old man's weaknesses? Boston Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu finds himself in a great spot to do damage against Scherzer's offerings.
The 26-year-old has been seeing the ball extremely well over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, batting .310 with a .621 SLG and .921 OPS. He has also produced a 45.8% hard-hit rate and a 16.7% barrel rate during that stretch.
On top of that, Abreu owns nearly 60% arsenal coverage against Scherzer's pitch mix, with every offering grading below league average this season, per FanGraphs.
Against left-handed hitters, the future Hall of Famer has struggled to keep the ball on the ground, allowing nearly a 75% elevation rate alongside a 13% barrel rate. Those hitters have also generated a .544 xSLG and .388 xwOBA against him.
Getting this prop at nearly even money feels like a gift. I would comfortably play it down to -110.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, SN1
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 total bases (-106)
Brandon Lowe and the Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves in a strong spot tonight against Aaron Civale and the Athletics. Despite a recent slump, this feels like a good opportunity for Lowe to get back on track.
Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Lowe is hitting just .222, but the underlying numbers are still solid with a 43% hard-hit rate and an 11.4% barrel rate. He also brings strong familiarity here, with a 73% arsenal coverage against Civale’s pitch mix.
On the mound, Civale enters with one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate per Batters-Box, grading poorly across matchup wOBA, ISO, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate. Left-handed hitters have given him fits all season, allowing nearly a 70% elevation rate.
At home, those splits jump to a .354 average, .646 slugging, and a .452 wOBA, with lefties elevating the ball 77.6% of the time.
This sets up well for Lowe, who profiles with elite underlying metrics, strong matchup coverage, and a track record of getting to this number close to 50% of the time, while also carrying roughly a 35% home run rate in similar spots. I would play this down to -115.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, SNP
Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+109)
CALZONES FOR EVERYONE!
Mr. Dominic Canzone steps into a strong spot tonight against Baltimore Orioles right hander Kyle Bradish. The Seattle Mariners outfielder checks in with the number one rated matchup on Batters-Box’s current season timeframe, along with nearly 75% arsenal coverage against Bradish’s full pitch mix.
Canzone has been on a serious heater lately, hitting .370 with a 1.285 OPS while posting 52% hard contact and a 20% barrel rate over his last 30 at bats against right handed pitching.
On the other side, Bradish has been vulnerable to lefties, allowing 40% hard contact and a 10% barrel rate to his last 30 left handed hitters faced. Those hitters are producing a .339 xBA, .477 xSLG, and .343 xwOBA in that span.
With Canzone seeing it this well right now and the underlying matchup fully supporting it, the HRR prop at plus money feels like value. Take it down to +100.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SEAM, MASN
- Prop picks: 225-387-35, +10.54 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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