MLB Picks

With another fastball thrower on the mound today, I’m inclined to keep riding the Okamoto train from my official home run pick today. He already has three home runs in this series, and owns a .600 slug-rate against the four-seamer with five of his team leading eight home runs this season coming off the fastball. 

 

There’s something about the air in New York for Pete Alonso. The former Met has been one of the bright spots for the Baltimore Orioles in a tough series against the Yankees, and I’m backing him to do more damage today.

Alonso has thumped a solo homer in both outings at Yankee Stadium this weekend, and he’s cashed this combo Over in four of his last five contests, despite a batting average of just .205 this year. 

He’s also seen plenty of New York starter Max Fried, racking up seven RBIs, with two homers, against the lefty, and he’ll get scoring opportunities hitting behind a talented Baltimore top order.

Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to drop to the lowest level of all games on the slate today at 53°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Hitting from the same side that Cody Bolton throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will be in a tough position in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Matt McLain is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for hitters.. Among every team today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this game 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Matt Chapman will have the handedness advantage over Steven Matz today.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams in action today.

Because of Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Kyle Stowers will be at a big disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in this game.. Kyle Stowers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 80th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. JJ Wetherholt is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. JJ Wetherholt will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

It’s been an injury-hit start to 2026 for Matthew Boyd, but he’s still going to be a key piece for the Chicago Cubs in an NL Central race that’s already looking tight.  

I like this strikeouts prop for the Chicago lefty today against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he’s nailed the Over on this number in three of his four starts this season, including 10 Ks in a win over the L.A. Angels on April 1.

Boyd is also boosted by a solid record against some of Arizona’s top hitters. He’s limited Nolan Arenado, Corbin Carroll and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to a combined 2-for-20 mark in prior matchups. Plus, the D-Backs only managed four hits in last night’s 2-0 loss.

Matt Olson has gone yard in two straight games, and four of his last six outings. He'll be batting out of Coors Field today, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors.

The Rockies have allowed 46 dingers already - the third most among all clubs - while starter Kyle Freeland has surrendered a homer in two straight games.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Brent Rooker ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Brent Rooker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Parker Messick throws from, Brent Rooker will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Brent Rooker will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Both of these teams are swinging with power of late. Each ranks in the Top 10 in ISO over the past two weeks, and in the Top 5 in wRC+.

While yesterday’s pitching matchup was conducive to a lower score, this one isn’t. Castillo’s issues were already noted.

Bubic isn’t immune to issues however, given his 0.80 HR/9 rate and a barrel rate of 9.5% which has led to a .408 xSLG.

As long as this number stays below a flat 8.0 I like the Over, which is 14-8 in Seattle’s last 22 home games.

 

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 11th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Given Anthony Kay's large platoon split, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 7th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with cold weather, and the weather report for this contest forecasts the 4th-lowest temperature of all games today at 58°.. Batting from the opposite that Tyler Holton throws from, Joc Pederson will have an edge in today's game.. Joc Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Joc Pederson in today's matchup.