MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Sunday, May 3

Chris Faria - Contributor at Covers.com
Chris Faria • Betting Analyst 8+ years betting experience
Updated: May 3, 2026 , 11:21 AM ET • 4 min read

Our MLB home run predictions for May 3 expect Matt Olson to continue swinging a hot stick.

att Olson (28) runs off a solo home run in the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. att Olson (28) runs off a solo home run in the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies.
  • UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.

It’s a full slate of MLB action today with 10 hours of baseball and plenty of home runs.

My MLB player props and home run picks focus on Matt Olson, Aaron Judge, and William Contreras.

Keep reading for the full details on my MLB picks for Sunday, April 3.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR Odds
Reds Aaron Judge +205
Reds William Contreras +540
Reds Matt Olson +310
💲Today's HR parlay +7903
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Home run pick: Aaron Judge (+205)

When you're discussing MLB picks for home-run hitters, one man is almost always brought up.

April was a vintage Aaron Judge month as the New York Yankees star hit 10 home runs and 17 RBI to go along with a .659 slugging percentage.

Judge finished the month with a homer in three of his last four games, but now hasn’t gone yard in three straight outings. That changes this afternoon against the Baltimore Orioles.

Trey Gibson is set to make his MLB debut for the Orioles after putting up a 4.01 ERA and 1.62 ERA with three home runs allowed over six starts in Triple-A this season.

Baltimore’s bullpen has also allowed 17 dingers, tied for the seventh most in the MLB.

  • Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: YES, MASN

Home run pick: William Contreras (+540)

The Milwaukee Brewers don’t have any home run leaders on their roster, but that doesn’t matter too much when they’re playing the Washington Nationals.

The Nats have allowed an MLB-worst 51 homers this season, with starter Zack Littell accounting for 13 of those. In fact, Littell has surrendered at least two dingers in four straight starts.

William Contreras has just three dingers this season (with his last one on Thursday), but the Brewers catcher has been pounding the baseball. Contreras is hitting .308 this year with nine hits and seven RBI over his last three contests.

All three of Contreras’ homers have come vs. right-handed pitching, so I like the matchup.

  • Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Nationals.TV

Home run pick: Matt Olson (+310)

Matt Olson is already up to 11 home runs this season, and there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll go yard again this afternoon.

The Atlanta Braves first baseman has left the yard in two straight games and four of his last six outings. Olson will also be at Coors Field today — arguably one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors.

The Colorado Rockies have allowed 46 dingers this year — the third most among all clubs — and starter Kyle Freeland has given up a homer in two straight outings.

  • Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Rockies.TV, BravesVision
Chris Faria's 2026 Transparency Record
  • HR picks: 4-8, +8.7 units

Today’s HR parlay

Reds Aaron Judge Bet Now
+7903
Reds William Contreras
Reds Matt Olson

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Chris Faria - Covers
Betting Analyst

After writing a few pieces for the Varsity newspaper during his time at the University of Toronto, Chris Faria's career in sports truly began in 2019 when he attended the sports journalism program at Centennial College. Since then, he’s covered virtually every sport under the sun, having written for several different outlets including Covers and the Canadian Olympic Committee. A lifelong hockey fan and player, Chris currently works full-time for the National Hockey League.

Outside of hockey, he’s also an avid poker player and mixed martial arts fan, which is coincidentally his favorite sport to bet on – usually in the form of a parlay on bet365. The main lesson he’s learned from years of betting is bankroll management: "Never bet more than you’re comfortable losing and never chase your losses."

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