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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 20, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.13 |
-155 
|
o7.5 -105 
|
-1.5 +115 
|
|
3.41 |
+140
|
u7.5 -105 
|
+1.5 -125 
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 3-0-1 in Sanchezs last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Phillies are 9-1 in Sanchezs last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Phillies are 6-1 in Sanchezs last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games as a road underdog.
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Mets are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. National League East.
- Over is 7-1 in Mets last 8 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+182)
o0.5+182
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
+100
|
o8.5 -104 
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.02 |
-114 
|
u8.5 -112
|
-1.5 +140
|
Kansas City
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Royals last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Royals last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Royals are 5-1 in Wachas last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Bachars last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Spencer Horwitz o0.5 Total RBIs (+272)
o0.5+272
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.78 |
+128
|
o7.5 +100
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
3.83 |
-142
|
u7.5 -108
|
-1.5 +146
|
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Red Sox last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Jaxs last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total RBIs (+149)
o0.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.21 |
+210
|
o6.5 -141
|
+1.5 -107
|
|
4.50 |
-230
|
u7.5 -135
|
-1.5 -102
|
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-2 in Perkins' last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 8-1 in last 9 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-1-1 in last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0-1 in Guardians last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Guardians last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Guardians last 6 on grass.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
o0.5+260
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.91 |
-154
|
o9.5 -104
|
-1.5 +102
|
|
4.59 |
+135
|
u9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -118 
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cubs last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Cubs last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 6-1 in Lowders last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
JJ Bleday o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
+128
|
o8.0 -114
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
4.78 |
-140
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +150
|
Atlanta
- Over is 7-0-1 in Braves last 8 overall.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 road games.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Braves last 8 on grass.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 vs. American League West.
Houston
- Astros are 8-1 in Browns last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Astros last 8 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-1 in Astros last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in Browns last 7 starts vs. National League East.
Top Projection
Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.78 |
+100
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -210
|
|
4.78 |
-113
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +175
|
Detroit
- Over is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Meltons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Meltons last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Martins last 7 starts as a home underdog.
- White Sox are 10-1 in Martins last 11 starts as a home underdog.
- White Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 4 of a series.
Top Projection
Hao-Yu Lee o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+225
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.70 |
+115
|
o5.5 -385
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.96 |
-125
|
u8.5 +105
|
-1.5 +160
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 vs. National League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Mathews' last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Mathews' last 4 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+207)
o0.5+207
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.45 |
+146
|
o7.5 +105
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.31 |
-157
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +135
|
Toronto
- Over is 7-1 in Blue Jays last 8 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 vs. American League West.
Texas
- Over is 9-0 in Rangers last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in deGroms last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+232)
o0.5+232
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.57 |
-155
|
o10.5 -115
|
-1.5 -102
|
|
4.98 |
+141
|
u11.0 -110
|
+1.5 -110
|
Seattle
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 vs. National League West.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Colorado
- Over is 6-0-1 in Rockies last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Rockies last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Suganos last 5 interleague starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.82 |
-118
|
o8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -250
|
|
4.31 |
+105
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +200
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 on grass.
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Johnsons last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 home starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Johnsons last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Jose Siri o1.5 Total Bases (+255)
o1.5+255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.51 |
+125
|
o7.5 -130
|
+1.5 -178
|
|
4.60 |
-139
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +153
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Alcantaras last 4 starts on grass.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+207)
o0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.23 |
+100
|
o8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.68 |
-113
|
u8.5 -124
|
-1.5 +175
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0-1 in Yankees last 6 road games.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Warrens last 5 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Yankees last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Arizona
- Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 vs. American League East.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.69 |
+230
|
o8.0 -125
|
+2.0 -124
|
|
5.21 |
-265
|
u8.5 -115
|
-2.0 -105
|
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 on grass.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
o0.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.08 |
-200
|
o7.0 -150
|
-1.5 -115
|
|
3.66 |
+180
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 +100
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Baltimore
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Orioles are 4-0 in Youngs last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Orioles are 4-0 in Youngs last 4 interleague starts.
- Orioles are 5-1 in Youngs last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Colton Cowser o0.5 Total RBIs (+411)
o0.5+425
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.33 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.08 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Toronto
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Yesavages last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Blue Jays last 8 overall.
Baltimore
- Under is 6-1 in Orioles last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 6-1 in Orioles last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Orioles are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.99 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.31 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 road games.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 home games.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.81 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.19 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Twins last 8 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 overall.
San Francisco
- Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
PHI
@
NYM
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Bryce Harper o1.5 Total Bases (+133)
Projection 1.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 9th-best hitter in the majors.. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for bats.. Hitting from the opposite that Jonah Tong throws from, Bryce Harper will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Bryce Harper has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
Projection 0.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for bats.. Juan Soto hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
KC
@
PIT
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:35 PM ET
Moneyline
PIT (-120)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Kansas City's lineup is completely lost right now, hitting an MLB-worst .197 with a punchless 73 wRC+ over their last twelve games. Pittsburgh's pitching staff gets an easy target here, giving the home club a straightforward path to cash.
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the game's 19th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. High humidity has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 86%.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael Wacha throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.
BOS
@
TB
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Patrick Sandoval o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+600)
Projection 4.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Projected catcher Adley Rutschman profiles as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 6th-best field in baseball for strikeouts.. Patrick Sandoval's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (58.5% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
Total RBIs
Trevor Story o0.5 Total RBIs (+219)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Trevor Story is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The #1 venue in the majors for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. The 5th-shallowest left field fences among all major league stadiums are found in Tropicana Field.. Over the past week, Trevor Story's 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.8%.
ATH
@
CLE
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+630)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
It's a tough matchup, but this is too long for Shea Langeliers, with a fair probability of 17%. You're not going to find Langeliers longer than this, as his home run prices in the first two games of the series were 5.25x and 4.75x. Today's 7.3x is a big difference and too much of an adjustment, even against Gavin Williams. Langeliers hasn't gone deep in his six games since returning to the lineup, but he's hitting .300, and Williams has allowed 25 dingers this year with the 25th-worst HR/FB rate among MLB starters.
Total RBIs
Jose Ramirez o0.5 Total RBIs (+182)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jose Ramirez ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jose Ramirez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #2 park in the majors for boosting base hits to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (43% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
CHC
@
CIN
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+121)
Projection 1.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Sal Stewart is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #4 field in the league for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°.. Hitting from the opposite that David Peterson throws from, Sal Stewart will have an edge today.
Total RBIs
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+154)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Michael Busch is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. In the majors, Great American Ball Park's right field fences are the 8th-shallowest.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°.
ATL
@
HOU
Sun, Sep 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-153)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Yordan Alvarez’s 1.5 hits, runs and RBI prop is worth attacking Sunday, with the Houston Astros slugger surpassing the mark more than 75% of the time across his 33-game elite-rating sample on Batters-Box. Alvarez also enters Sunday with a .600 SLG, .343 ISO, 53%+ hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate over his last 10 games. He draws Braves southpaw Martin Perez, whose entire pitch mix Alvarez covers. While Alvarez’s batting average dips against lefties, he still owns a .500 SLG and .833 OPS. Perez has allowed his last 60 left-handed hitters to post a .409 xBA, .563 xSLG and .425 xwOBA.
Total Home Runs
Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+406)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
Ronald Acuna Jr. leads MLB with seven dingers in September, including three in his last four games.
The Braves star has an insane .714 SLG and 1.096 OPS this month, while he also carries a .444 average and 1.111 OPS in his career when facing Astros starter Hunter Brown.
DET
@
CHW
Sun, Sep 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total Hits (-127)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Chicago White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami has struggled at the plate lately, but there are plenty of reasons to expect a bounce-back against Detroit Tigers right-hander Troy Melton. Murakami owns the No. 1 rating on Batters-Box among players with at least 100 at-bats and records a hit nearly 62% of the time when rated elite. He also covers more than 70% of Melton’s arsenal. Melton has struggled against left-handed hitters, with his last 60 allowing a 46.5% hard-hit rate, 11.6% barrel rate, and .368 xBA. Murakami is worth backing to record a hit at -145 or better.
Total Bases
Spencer Torkelson o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best ballpark in the game for boosting offensive stats to righties.. Spencer Torkelson pulls many of his flyballs (40.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Chicago White Sox.
WAS
@
STL
Sun, Sep 20 • 2:15 PM ET
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+149)
Projection 1.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. JJ Wetherholt is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. JJ Wetherholt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Irvin today.
Total Bases
Thomas Saggese u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Thomas Saggese is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Busch Stadium as the worst ballpark in MLB for righty home runs.. Jake Irvin will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Thomas Saggese in today's matchup.. Thomas Saggese has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Utilizing Statcast data, Thomas Saggese is in the 21st percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 7.800.
TOR
@
TEX
Sun, Sep 20 • 2:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+500)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Okamoto has been the main source of power for the Toronto Blue Jays this season, and is my bet to go yard against the vet deGrom. Okamoto has put together an incredible rookie campaign with 33 homers, hitting five of them in September alone. deGrom throws his fastball 44% of the time - a pitch Kazuma has hit out of the yard 22 times this season.
Total
u7.5 (-120)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I haven't seen a Spencer Miles opener day I haven't liked, so we're going to ride with the Under here. Miles hasn't allowed an earned run since Aug. 8, throwing up 14 consecutive zeros in each appearance since - we'll take that to the bank. On the other side is veteran ace Jacob deGrom, who gets a struggling Toronto Blue Jays offense. The bats are cold in Toronto, scoring two or fewer runs in three of their last four games.
SEA
@
COL
Sun, Sep 20 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total Home Runs (+257)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Total
o10.5 (-119)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Play Over 10.5 to 55%. Sugano is struggling, Kade Anderson brings a 5.33 ERA into Coors, and Colorado’s staff owns a 7.94 ERA over its last 10 games.
MIN
@
LAA
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:07 PM ET
Total Bases
Jose Siri o1.5 Total Bases (+255)
Projection 1.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run skill, Jose Siri ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest fences in MLB.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 8th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest fences in MLB.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Out of every team in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.
MIA
@
SD
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+390)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Fernando Tatis Jr. is crushing Sandy Alcantara’s pitch mix.
He has managed an impressive .333 ISO with a 20.7% barrel rate and 69.2% hard hit rate over the last 25 games when facing Alcantara’s four most-used pitches.
Using the same criteria, Tatis Jr. owns a low 4.3% walk rate. He is tearing the cover off the ball and not doing so aggressively. He’s not grinding out free passes.
Moneyline
SD (-134)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I’m on the San Diego Padres up to 58%.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed at least four runs in four of his past five starts, posting a 5.52 xFIP along the way.
It’ll be tough to get back on track against the San Diego Padres. They rank sixth in hard hit rate, fifth in xwOBA, and first in xSLG against right-handed pitching in September.
NYY
@
AZ
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:10 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-114)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The way Warren has been pitching, runs will already be at a premium for the Diamondbacks, while if Burnes can lock in, it should be the same for the Yankees. The Arizona right-hander owns a 3.39 xERA and just a 37.50% hard-hit rate since returning. If he can limit those hard-hit balls, this could end up being a pitching duel.
Moneyline
NYY (-114)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Will Warren has been pitching at an elite level lately, posting a 0.64 ERA, 3.08 FIP and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts. With Arizona striking out at a high rate as of late, Warren has a strong opportunity to shut down the Diamondbacks lineup.
On the other side, Corbin Burnes has been solid since returning, but he is allowing a near-17% barrel rate, while opposing hitters have a .360 xwOBA.
With the Yankees generating a hard-hit rate above 43% lately, I expect New York to bounce back and give Warren enough run support this afternoon.
SF
@
LAD
Sun, Sep 20 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Mookie Betts o0.5 Total Home Runs (+450)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
The HR props at Dodger Stadium are popping for the home side for a couple of reasons, and I'm investing. Dodger Stadium has some of the better hitting conditions today, with near-80-degree temperatures and 9-mph winds blowing out to center field. Next is the plus-plus matchup. Lefty Matt Wilkinson will open and could be pushed to eat 12-plus outs. He pitched to a 5.15 ERA in Triple-A this season and gave up seven home runs in 43-plus innings. He's already had a three-HR game against the Mets in just three frames of work. The +EV home run, per the projections today, is Mookie Betts at 5.5x with a fair price of 4x. He has been ripping at the plate of late, going 7-for-8 in the series with two home runs and slashing .397/.493/.794 in September. It's another mispriced homer in the soft Sunday markets.
Total Home Runs
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+286)
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst
Matt Wilkinson is essentially a two-pitch guy when facing right-handed bats, tossing his four-seamer 59% and his changeup 27%. This is music to the ears of Teoscar Hernandez, who has blasted changeups this year (151 wRC+) and has hit four-seamers (157 wRC+) better than any other offering throughout his career.
MIL
@
BAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 7:20 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Garrett Mitchell o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Garrett Mitchell is easily my favorite bat to back in this matchup. The Brewers outfielder has been destroying right-handed pitching, posting a .697 SLG, .333 ISO, 37.5% line drive rate, near-60% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate over his last 10 games. He also owns a .821 SLG and 1.254 OPS against the last 30 right-handed pitchers he has faced. Mitchell draws Orioles right-hander Brandon Young, who has allowed lefties to produce an 11% barrel rate, .374 xBA and .673 xSLG over his last 30. Mitchell also clears this prop over 68% of the time in elite ratings. Take this down to -125.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Pete Alonso o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+105)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Pete Alonso has been seeing the baseball extremely well, making him my favorite option from the Orioles' side in this matchup. The Polar Bear enters Sunday with a .658 SLG and .395 ISO, while posting a near-20% barrel rate over his last 10 games. He has also crushed right-handed pitching recently, sporting a .731 SLG and 25% barrel rate over his last 30 at-bats against righties. Jacob Misiorowski has been lights-out against right-handed hitters, but the last 30 he has faced own at least a .346 xBA and .436 xSLG. At plus money, Alonso is worth backing.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
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Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
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Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
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MLB Picks And Parlays
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