MLB Picks

Curtis Mead is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #4 stadium in the majors for boosting base hits to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which generally leads to better offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Joey Cantillo throws from, Curtis Mead will have an edge in today's game.. Curtis Mead has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

Shane Baz was fortunate to escape with only one run allowed over six frames when he faced the Rays last week. Tampa is tops in the majors in OPS over the last two weeks, and Baz is in the 15th percentile in pitching run value this year.

When it comes to his home run ability, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Crow-Armstrong is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. Batting from the opposite that Braxton Ashcraft throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an advantage today.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams playing today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 5th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast forecasts the 4th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Mike Trout has a ton of pop (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (27% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Keider Montero has a pitch-to-contact profile (24th percentile K%) — great news for Trout.

The Red Sox offense isn't cashing in its baserunners, and Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider will make that doubly difficult, as the right-hander is rounding back into form. Take the Braves up to -125.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Bleday in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. JJ Bleday hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball batters like JJ Bleday tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like David Peterson.. The Barrel% of JJ Bleday has significantly improved, with an increase from 7.8% last year to 13.2% this season.

Cam Schlittler owns a 2.60 expected ERA, top 9% of MLB, and he forces hitters into mistakes with a 95th percentile chase rate. The path against him is discipline plus loud contact, but the Kansas City Royals don’t profile that way. They are average in barrel rate at 8.5% and chase rate at 30.2%. Against a starter with few obvious holes, average is not enough. Playable to -144.

Michael McGreevy's playing with fire, and his 2.40 ERA is a mirage. The Brewers might BABIP him to death, and with Kyle Harrison on the opposite mound, Milwaukee wins by at least a couple of runs.

Isolating home games against Top-20 teams in OBP, Burke owns a 6.22 ERA, 6.41 xERA, and conceded multiple runs in four of five starts. Minnesota ranks ninth in OBP so they fit the profile. Joe Ryan's indicators (FIP, xFIP, barrel rate, etc.) are worse on the road, and the White Sox have scored 3+ runs against eight of the last 11 right-handed starters.

The Astros own a .290 wOBA, .652 OPS, and 35.1% hard hit rate over their last six games. 

Despite getting no-hit Monday, the Rangers have fared better in each category over the same period. They are sporting a .333 wOBA, .757 OPS, and 39.4% hard hit rate.

With a pitching advantage to boot, they should rebound Tuesday night.

Sutter Health Park is once again grading as the best home run environment on the slate today, per Ballpark Pal. The wind is blowing out, and the pitching matchup is better than it may look at first glance, as Luis Severino has been hit hard there and the splits back it up. The Athletics starter owns a 2.2 HR/9 in Sacramento compared to just 0.94 HR/9 on the road. Randy Arozarena at +600 is my target with a fair price of +530, per the projections at Covers. The right-handed hitter ranks 10th in slugging and 15th in BlastContact% over the last 14 days and is one of just six hitters inside the Top 15 in both categories during that stretch.

The San Diego Padres are in a favorable bounce-back spot against Aaron Nola, who owns a 6.04 ERA and has allowed 13 earned runs across his last three starts. Randy Vasquez has been reliable at home, while Philadelphia’s offense has cooled off significantly.

As it relates to his home run skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willy Adames is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 20.7-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Eduardo Rodriguez throws from, Willy Adames will have the upper hand in today's game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage today.

Both teams are trending to the Under as the Rockies are 13-17 O/U on the road and the Dodgers are 10-16 O/U at home. Kyle Freeland is better away from Coors (13.6 K-BB%), while the Dodgers can use Eric Lauer for a few innings against an impotent lineup against LHP before relying on a stingy bullpen (2.46 FIP this month).

Reds starter Brady Singer has allowed three dingers in two straight starts, and 2+ homers in four of his last five. Jordan Walker has gone yard in two straight games and has feasted on right-handed pitching, batting .311 with 11 of his 15 home runs vs. righties.

Rasmussen has been a New York Yankees nightmare, posting a 1.03 ERA across eight career outings against the Bronx Bombers. This type of stat is meaningless without context, and we have it here. He's been able to do this because the Yankees are constantly reliant on their power, and Rasmussen is one of the best barrel suppression arms in baseball, sitting in the 96th percentile in such rates this season. Playbale to +100.