I'm hoping this good weather breaks this cold snap I'm on, as I can't wait for the summer months.
I'm still targeting hot hitters this week for home runs and MLB player props, and even going back-to-back in some spots at better prices in better spots.
Baltimore is a strong place to look for home runs, and Yandy Diaz's prices may not stay north of +650 for long if he keeps slugging at this level. I also need at least one bat in Sutter Health Park, which projects as the best home run environment on the slate, and saw five total home runs there last night.
These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, May 26.
Best MLB home run props today
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Yandy Diaz
Randy Arozarena
Home run pick: Yandy Diaz (+670)
I'm not getting next-day theoried today with Yandy Díaz, who I'm getting at a better number than yesterday and is still grading as +EV, per the projections at Covers.
Over the last two weeks, he has been one of the best bats in baseball, ranking seventh in slugging and third in BlastContact%. He’s ripping extra-base hits right now with six over his last five games and gets a great matchup in a favorable park today.
Oriole Park grades as the No. 4 home run environment on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and Shane Baz is a strong target for dingers.
The Baltimore right-hander just saw this Tampa lineup in his last start, so the familiarity edge shifts to the hitters in today’s matchup. He has allowed a home run in seven of his last starts and ranks in the bottom 50 among starters in BlastContact% and HR/FB rate over the last 30 days.
This is a buy to +600.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Rays.TV
Home run pick: Randy Arozarena (+600)
Sutter Health Park is once again grading as the best home run environment on the slate today, per Ballpark Pal.
The wind is blowing out, and the pitching matchup is better than it may look at first glance, as Luis Severino has been hit hard there and the splits back it up. The Athletics starter owns a 2.2 HR/9 in Sacramento compared to just 0.94 HR/9 on the road.
Six of his eight home runs allowed have come in that minor-league park.
Seattle clubbed four home runs yesterday and could leave the yard multiple times again vs. Severino and the bullpen, as no team in baseball has allowed a higher HR/9 at home than the Athletics.
Randy Arozarena at +600 is my target with a fair price of +530, per the projections at Covers. The right-handed hitter ranks 10th in slugging and 15th in BlastContact% over the last 14 days and is one of just six hitters inside the Top 15 in both categories during that stretch.
He went deep yesterday and added a double, and now owns a .299/.390/.477 slash line on the season.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Mariners.TV
- HR picks: 13-91, -23.94 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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