The Padres could be cycling through plenty of arms today, and Castro has already gone deep in back-to-back games while launching four homers since the All-Star break. Most of his power has come against right-handed pitching, which is great news if he gets the matchup with Griffin Canning. I already have some Mickey Moniak shares, but Castro at this number might be my favorite value. He ranks second on the team in slugging over the last two weeks and has matched Hunter Goodman with the same number of home runs during that stretch. His swing speed doesn't match Goodman's, but Castro's 17.3% BlastContact% leads the team over the last two weeks. I don't see how this price should be much longer than Moniak's, and I'd play this home run down to +500.

Casey Legumina is a right-handed opener who will likely turn things over to lefty Ian Seymour. He threw 40 pitches and recorded six outs in his last outing vs. Toronto, but that came against a Jays lineup featuring eight right-handed bats. The Rangers should present a much different challenge, with a projected lineup that goes L, R, R, L, L, R, L, L, and R. That gives Tampa plenty of opportunities to get to the lefty Seymour early and limits the chances of Legumina seeing a full second inning. With just 31 strikeouts over 43+ innings, Legumina is not a strikeout-per-inning arm, and there is a strong chance he works just one inning today, which has been the norm in most of his opener appearances. It's a sweaty prop because opener strikeout markets are volatile, but THE BAT projects just 28 pitches and 1.5 strikeouts, making the fair price shorter than -100.

The Under 8.5 fits with both offenses ice-cold entering the finale. Cleveland has produced a 45 wRC+ over its last seven games, while Cincinnati sits at 70. Neither lineup owns an ISO above .125 during that span, and both bullpens are throwing well, creating a clear lower-scoring path tonight overall.

The starters appear to give a pathway to the Under tonight, but it's difficult to look past the recent offensive form of both ball clubs. Aside from Atlanta's brilliance at the dish since the break, it also has a .204 ISO over the last two weeks. 

As for the Mets, they own a 134 wRC+ in their last six contests while carrying a .217 ISO. There's no shortage of production coming from this lineup at the moment.

Davis Martin was shelled for nine runs and three home runs a month ago when he faced this Yankees lineup, but he still managed only four strikeouts. Since then, the surface numbers haven't been terrible, but the strikeouts have disappeared, with just 17 punchouts over his last 29+ innings. He has also benefited from facing some bottom-tier offenses during that stretch. Today, he is projected for a mid-80s pitch count, but I'm fading the projections that are leaning toward the Over. The market is moving the other way, and the leash remains the biggest concern. Martin's fastball velocity has been trending down since May, and he is outperforming his expected metrics. This was a pitcher who posted just a 6.56 K/9 over 140 innings last season, and the workload could be starting to catch up as his strikeout rate continues to slide.

I'm expecting this game to stay under 7.5 runs, with both offenses in less favorable spots than Tuesday night. The Chicago Cubs could be due for an offensive regression after their explosive performance, while the St. Louis Cardinals have struggled to consistently produce runs. Dustin May has also found another gear recently, with his strikeout rate climbing over his last few starts. That matches up well against a Chicago lineup that has struck out at a rate above 26% over its last six games. With May trending in the right direction and both offenses unlikely to replicate Tuesday's output, the under is my favorite look.

Five strikeouts? Grayson Rodriguez has reached four punchouts just once over his last six starts. He is fighting to keep his rotation spot, and only one other MLB starter has a worse HardHit% than the right-hander. He might be the worst starter on the slate, and that says something with Zack Littell also taking the mound today. The velocity is trending the wrong way as Rodriguez battles through back and shoulder injuries, and all four of his pitches are getting hit hard with an average exit velocity of 88 mph or higher. His best swing-and-miss pitch is the slider, but he throws it only 10% of the time, and hitters are slugging .579 against it. His changeup can generate whiffs, but the spin rate has dropped in back-to-back starts. Rodriguez has been hit so hard that a 12-out outing could be the ceiling today. He has gone beyond 12 outs just twice over his last six starts and shouldn't be sniffing 90 pitches. I don't hate the Under 3.5 strikeouts at plus money either.

Emerson Hancock has not pitched as well as his ERA suggests but he's still done some good things. He has limited homers effectively and he ranks in the 82nd percentile in walk rate.

The Seattle Mariners rank 29th with a putrid .084 ISO when facing lefties this month. Their lack of power will make scoring runs in bulk a big challenge.

Bet to -125.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.