It was a 1-2 profitable day yesterday thanks to Kyle Stowers' lone dinger in a 1-0 win. Now I turn the page to Wednesday and navigate an afternoon schedule loaded with fadable arms, which is great news for dingers and MLB player props.
Jeremy Pena is checking every single box today vs. Grayson Rodriguez, while the San Diego rotation is a joke, giving value on Colorado lefty bats if Griffin Canning gets paraded out today.
These are my favorite home run picks for Wednesday, July 29.
MLB home run props for today
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Jeremy Pena
Mickey Moniak
Home run prediction: Jeremy Pena (+572)
Every Wednesday home run card needs a Houston bat or two.
Grayson Rodriguez might be making his final start for a while, as he has been getting pummeled while trying to pitch through shoulder and back issues.
His expected metrics back up the ugly ERA and FIP, and only one qualified starter has allowed a higher HardHit% this season. He gets just 29% of his outs on the ground, owns the 13th-worst BlastContact% in baseball, and isn't missing bats either — with only six strikeouts over his last 13+ innings.
Lefties have done the most damage against Rodriguez this year, but his splits have been much more even since 2024, so I don't have to force a left-handed bat here.
Jeremy Pena should get five plate appearances out of the leadoff spot and might be the hottest home run hitter in baseball since the break.
The right-hander has launched five homers over his last eight games, and with Yordan Alvarez priced below +200 today, this +572 number on Pena looks like a steal. Everything checks the boxes here: matchup, setting, form, and price.
I'm playing this home run down to +450.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, Space City Home Network
Home run prediction: Mickey Moniak (+367)
I need a left-handed Colorado bat against Griffin Canning, who has surrendered 11 of his 12 home runs to left-handed hitters while allowing them to post a 1.004 OPS.
He is one of my favorite pitchers to fade today, ranking seventh-worst among qualified starters in HardHit% while sitting in the bottom 50 in HR/9, HR/FB, and BlastContact%.
Canning has been working in a bulk role, and the writing might be on the wall given how much he has struggled this season. Even if San Diego opens with another arm, it should still be Canning handling the bulk of the innings.
Mickey Moniak projects as the Rockies' second-most likely hitter to go deep today behind Hunter Goodman (+280). Moniak doesn't walk much, but he takes aggressive hacks with a 74.7 mph bat speed that ranks second on the club.
He also crushes right-handed pitching, posting a .952 OPS with 15 of his 17 home runs coming against righties. He also likely avoids San Diego's best left-handed reliever, as Adrian Morejon threw 32 pitches yesterday.
The Padres are in a tough spot with their pitching staff, and the Rockies have a chance to jump on one of the worst starter ERAs in baseball.
I make the fair price closer to +325.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Padres.TV, Rockies.TV
- HR picks: 26-143, -18.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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