It's an all-day baseball Wednesday with a ton of strikeout and MLB player props to comb through. There is no shortage of edges and angles on the bump today.
Grayson Rodriguez is on my all-time fade list. Casey Legumina might not go more than an inning, and Davis Martin has lost his K stuff.
These are my favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, July 29.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Grayson Rodriguez |
Under 4.5 strikeouts | -125 |
 Casey Legumina |
Under 1.5 strikeouts | +125 |
 Davis Martin |
Under 4.5 strikeouts | +125 |
Strikeout prop: Grayson Rodriguez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-125)
Five strikeouts? Grayson Rodriguez has reached four punchouts just once over his last six starts. He is fighting to keep his rotation spot, and only one other MLB starter has a worse HardHit% than the right-hander. He might be the worst starter on the slate, and that says something with Zack Littell also taking the mound today.
The velocity is trending the wrong way as Rodriguez battles through back and shoulder injuries, and all four of his pitches are getting hit hard with an average exit velocity of 88 mph or higher. His best swing-and-miss pitch is the slider, but he throws it only 10% of the time, and hitters are slugging .579 against it. His changeup can generate whiffs, but the spin rate has dropped in back-to-back starts.
The biggest concern is the leash. Rodriguez has been hit so hard that a 12-out outing could be the ceiling today. He has gone beyond 12 outs just twice over his last six starts and shouldn't be sniffing 90 pitches.
It's a little juice, but this is a massive number for a pitcher who looks cooked. I don't hate the Under 3.5 strikeouts at plus money either. I'm playing this to -135/-140.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, Space City Home Network.
Strikeout prop: Casey Legumina Under 1.5 strikeouts (+125)
Casey Legumina is a right-handed opener who will likely turn things over to lefty Ian Seymour. He threw 40 pitches and recorded six outs in his last outing vs. Toronto, but that came against a Jays lineup featuring eight right-handed bats.
The Texas Rangers should present a much different challenge, with a projected lineup that goes L, R, R, L, L, R, L, L, and R. That gives the Tampa Bay Rays plenty of opportunities to get to the lefty Seymour early and limits the chances of Legumina seeing a full second inning.
With just 31 strikeouts over 43+ innings, Legumina is not a strikeout-per-inning arm, and there is a strong chance he works just one inning today, which has been the norm in most of his opener appearances.
It's a sweaty prop because opener strikeout markets are volatile, but THE BAT projects just 28 pitches and 1.5 strikeouts, making the fair price shorter than -100. If you can't find the K total right away, wait closer to game time, as these markets often reappear once books adjust.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: One National or Two local
Strikeout prop: Davis Martin Under 4.5 strikeouts (+125)
Davis Martin was shelled for nine runs and three home runs a month ago when he faced this New York Yankees lineup, but he still managed only four strikeouts. Since then, the surface numbers haven't been terrible, but the strikeouts have disappeared with just 17 punchouts over his last 29+ innings. He has also benefited from facing some bottom-tier offenses during that stretch.
Today, he is projected for a mid-80s pitch count, but I'm fading the projections that are leaning toward the Over. The market is moving the other way, and the leash remains the biggest concern.
Martin's fastball velocity has been trending down since May, and he is outperforming his expected metrics. This was a pitcher who posted just a 6.56 K/9 over 140 innings last season, and the workload could be starting to catch up as his strikeout rate continues to slide.
Betting Yankee Under Ks is always a sweat, but like Anthony Kay yesterday, these plus-money prices on short-leash pitchers with workload concerns are worth attacking. I'm playing the Under 4.5.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, Amazon Prime Video
- Prop picks: 6-8, -2.23 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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